Man, what a great thread. I’m 41 and kind of slot in with some of your who are around the same age. My opinions aren’t too far off. To be clear I daily a 60, and my first 40 is inbound from out of state, arriving in a month. Both are things that took some hunting to find the right deal that fit my blue collar budget, both will be dirtbag budget builds, and both will never see a shop because I can not afford to not do the labor myself. I also have two kids who are in middle & high school, but the younger generation is a whole other ball of wax.
Ok, with that out of the way … the market. I collect vintage guitars like a few of you, the bug bit me at 14 when a friend dragged a battered bottom of the barrel Teisco out of her grandparents closet and gifted it to me. I now have some modest but cool pieces all acquired through a small initial amount of cash and lots of horse trading upwards. I’ve also seemed to always date (and get married to, and divorced from, and married again) girls who are into thrift store clothes - finding really nice vintage stuff. Both markets mirror Land Cruisers almost exactly.
I think going back 20-30 years there was a generation that was dying out. Maybe early boomers, or the tail end of the sock hop generation before them. As they passed away, all these old things they owned came up for sale stupid cheap or was donated to thrift stores. Their kids didn’t want to deal with mom & dad’s old junk. And it really was old junk - technologically inferior, out of fashion, generally undesirable by 99% of society. And none of it was worth much. With guitars, the 1965 Fender Duo Sonic I now own was a student model guitar. Nobody wanted that, it was embarrassing to own. In the 90s they wanted the latest and greatest. Nevermind that it has essentially the same pickups as a 60s Strat that was still somewhat desirable to tone snobs and people chasing SRV’s sound. Off to the thrift store it went. Same went for “dad’s old truck”, that rusting piece of liability parked out behind the garage that he was going to get back on the road “some day”.
Fast forward to maybe 2005-2015. The younger generations - myself included - are facing an entirely different economic reality than the older generations. And another generation was aging into the afterlife, their junk being hocked to thrift stores and estate sales. Well, folks of my age are looking at living expenses that have risen at a much faster rate than wages, going back to about the early 80s. We’re hungry to make ends meet. We see people with niche hobbies and realized they wanted that old junk. We saw gold. It didn’t take long for folks older than us to catch on too. Everybody thought they had gold all of a sudden.
eBay hit at exactly the right time to foster a boom in prices on literally
anything that was old.
This fueled some tulip-style speculation and insanity in the markets. I saw it happen with Land Cruiser prices in the 20-teens, reaching an incredibly stupid fever pitch during Covid. Guitars too. “Grandpa’s old rusting hulk is worth $20,000, I know what I got, no offers accepted, cash on the barrel head only,
I’ve seen the prices online!” Shoot I remember trying to buy a 4Runner as early as 2012 or so. For a decently priced one you had to be at the seller’s house within 30 minutes with cash in hand ready to buy without even a test drive, or it was already gone. Early 2nd gen basket cases were going for $3000-5000.
So where’s it going? Hopefully down. I think there’s something to be said for the thin slice of 25-45 year olds who could afford wildly priced toy trucks during the pandemic finding out they actually weren’t as into leaf springs and lack of a center console screen as they thought. People still want the “latest and greatest”. The size of the center console screen in a vehicle has become a sales point. On the other hand, here’s the crux of my theory I’ve been working on for 10+ years: I think 99% of the “cool old stuff” - be it trucks, guitars, or whatever - is into circulation with enthusiasts and collectors. The previous generations that had those things are pretty much gone and the days of finding a crazy deal from the old farmer down the road are gone. For all intents and purposes, none of that stuff is hiding anymore - it’s all into circulation. And so prices will stay relatively high, if there’s a cooling in the market it ain’t gonna cool too far.
And if y’all think Land Cruiser prices are high, you don’t know anything about the vintage clothes market, which my partner tracks religiously. JC Penney house brand jeans (cheap crap when new) from the 70s that are in tatters, just massive holes and stains everywhere - maybe $200. Most of the pieces can’t even be considered clothing anymore haha, they’re just a series of thinly connected rags!