2018 LC Sell or Hold? (3 Viewers)

[ds570]

I have a perfect condition 2018 LC with 37K, Terra interior and DVD's (I know they are hated here). I have been keeping it in storage since I put a ton of miles on vehicles and have a 18 LX that I drive on the road. I have not wanted to rack up miles on the LC thinking that based upon how low miles 80's are selling, in a few years the 200's might explode. My question is: am I wasting my time and would I be better off selling the LC?

 

[foolforthecity]

Just because these vehicles may hold their value or even increase slightly does not mean they are good investments. How long do you plan on storing the vehicle, 10, 20 or 30 years? A very conservative well diversified stock/bond investment portfolio will likely throw off an annualized return of at least 5-6% over those time horizons which I would be willing to wager would outperform holding this vehicle as an investment. Also consider any storage expense or other expense you incur for holding the vehicle (maintenance, insurance, etc.). Bottom line, rarely are vehicles a good investment relative to other asset classes.

 

[Zill]

With the 250 coming out (that’s essentially a 4Runner/Prado with a Land Cruiser badge on it), I have a feeling the Land Cruiser name plate will be downgraded in the public eye since so many people will be driving around 250’s. As such, the previous land cruisers will diminish in value due to Toyota selling out the nameplate for a quick cash grab. It’s a slap in the face for previous LC owners from Toyota, but I digress…

I will still enjoy the 200 series for how robust it is, but your common consumer (which is what primarily drives the market value) will not demand as much of a premium for it.

 

[ds570]

Just because these vehicles may hold their value or even increase slightly does not mean they are good investments. How long do you plan on storing the vehicle, 10, 20 or 30 years? A very conservative well diversified stock/bond investment portfolio will likely throw off an annualized return of at least 5-6% over those time horizons which I would be willing to wager would outperform holding this vehicle as an investment. Also consider any storage expense or other expense you incur for holding the vehicle (maintenance, insurance, etc.). Bottom line, rarely are vehicles a good investment relative to other asset classes.

That is the very conversation I have been having with myself. I really like my LC but storage, insurance etc. really does add up. Currently my LC shares storage with my 97 D90 and 82 FJ40. My D90 is probably the only car that I would not sell.

 

[ds570]

With the 250 coming out (that’s essentially a 4Runner/Prado with a Land Cruiser badge on it), I have a feeling the Land Cruiser name plate will be downgraded in the public eye since so many people will be driving around 250’s. As such, the previous land cruisers will diminish in value due to Toyota selling out the nameplate for a quick cash grab. It’s a slap in the face for previous LC owners from Toyota, but I digress…

I will still enjoy the 200 series for how robust it is, but your common consumer (which is what primarily drives the market value) will not demand as much of a premium for it.

If Toyota would sell the 300 LC in the US, my 2018 LC would probably have been gone by now. The 250 LC is not appealing to me. That said, the GX550 looks pretty good.

 

[Zill]

If Toyota would sell the 300 LC in the US, my 2018 LC would probably have been gone by now. The 250 LC is not appealing to me. That said, the GX550 looks pretty good.

I will always keep the 200 in the garage since nothing else on the road drives like them (as such, I am not too concerned on the resale value of the vehicle itself), but I will probably be buying an LX 600 as my next daily vehicle years from now. I’m hoping once the GX550 comes out, that will put pressure on Lexus dealers to discount the LX 600’s by 10k or so.

All in all, there’s a good chance the 200 series values will plummet once the 250/550GX hit the dealer lots, and is probably not a wise investment vehicle choice at this time.

 

[Supra Turbo]

With the 250 coming out (that’s essentially a 4Runner/Prado with a Land Cruiser badge on it), I have a feeling the Land Cruiser name plate will be downgraded in the public eye since so many people will be driving around 250’s. As such, the previous land cruisers will diminish in value due to Toyota selling out the nameplate for a quick cash grab. It’s a slap in the face for previous LC owners from Toyota, but I digress…

I will still enjoy the 200 series for how robust it is, but your common consumer (which is what primarily drives the market value) will not demand as much of a premium for it.

Or it may do the opposite and cause the values to rise as we've seen with MKIV Supra valuations when the J29 "Zupra" was released... with the latter having a different drivetrain.

The other aspect to consider is the low production numbers of 200 series LC's (3k units vs 150k units per year for 4Runner as an example - multiplied by ~12 years of production runs).

The 200 series LC might be the rarest model LC ever sold stateside for the entire nameplate Including forthcoming model and collectors love rarity... hard to predict.

 

[TimCFJ40]

If Toyota would sell the 300 LC in the US, my 2018 LC would probably have been gone by now. The 250 LC is not appealing to me. That said, the GX550 looks pretty good.

The GX550 is just a upmarket 250...

That said, looking at sales prices for 200 series specifically, and large V8 Trucks and SUVs in general, IMO the market has peaked and will be on a slow decline for quite some time. If yours ends up one of the last few clean ones standing in a few decades, you might get your money back out, but don't expect a return on investment. 7% return (easily found in many investment classes) doubles value every 10 years. I see no circumstance where a 2018 200 series will be worth 2x sales price in 2028.
Also, FWIW, the people that made profits on the 80 series boom weren't the original buyers that held them, they were the people that found super clean examples near the bottom of the curve, and resold later.

 

[Zill]

Or it may do the opposite and cause the values to rise as we've seen with MKIV Supra valuations when the J29 "Zupra" was released... with the latter having a different drivetrain.

The other aspect to consider is the low production numbers of 200 series LC's (3k units vs 150k units per year for 4Runner as an example - multiplied by ~12 years of production runs).

The 200 series LC might be the rarest model LC ever sold stateside for the entire nameplate Including forthcoming model and collectors love rarity... hard to predict.

The Supra is a different circumstance since its raise to fame came from the Fast and Furious series. I doubt the Land Cruiser will carry that same JDM car culture vibe.

 

[gasman4u]

The Supra is a different circumstance since its raise to fame came from the Fast and Furious series. I doubt the Land Cruiser will carry that same JDM car culture vibe.

wait until you see F&F 16! It's the one where they go to the center of the earth and restart the core for...."family." All in a 200 series from 2013 and then in an updated 2020 with the finale crashing a 2021 HE into a 60 series.

 

[stonepa]

I always look at it this way in all my purchases: . Would I rather have a $50k ‘investment’ vehicle sitting and gathering dust in storage or buy $50k in Iowa farmland? Ill take farmland all day long.

A Lans Cruiser in storage is always just a barn find in the future.

 

[bicycleagent003]

Vehicles are not good investments. At least Toyota mass produced vehicles. Use it, sell it, enjoy it. You decide, but sitting on it in hopes of making money on it ignores the opportunity cost of liquidating it and putting that money in another investment option. Cars are just tools, sometimes fun and even beautiful. But they are generally not good financial investments in comparison to other options.

 

[Supra Turbo]

The Supra is a different circumstance since its raise to fame came from the Fast and Furious series. I doubt the Land Cruiser will carry that same JDM car culture vibe.

Eh. IMO this is only somewhat true. I think the big driver there is the modability aspect that rapidly started to grow in late '99-00 for which a few of us were a part of, then the rise of JDM culture in US. Other vehicles were included in the movie series too, yet their values did not rise to the extent of Supras. Additionally, the values of these cars stayed flat from '98 to '16 at which point they started to increase significantly so there's more to it than just the movie.

I think theres multiple ways of looking at it. Case and point, we purchased one of our '94 Supras in '98 for $24k, this same vehicle was apprased last year for $145k. We got to use it as transportation and enjoy it over this time and made money. Is it the best "investment" period, no. But if only looking at vehicles and only those that can be driven (reliable usable sportscars / no supercars), then this Toyota has been one of the best investments out there.

 

[Supra Turbo]

wait until you see F&F 16! It's the one where they go to the center of the earth and restart the core for...."family." All in a 200 series from 2013 and then in an updated 2020 with the finale crashing a 2021 HE into a 60 series.

Umm wrong! Vin Diesel already confirmed he will be racing Johnny Tran in "wheel chair compact class" in F&F16.

 

[Heritage 2020]

wait until you see F&F 16! It's the one where they go to the center of the earth and restart the core for...."family." All in a 200 series from 2013 and then in an updated 2020 with the finale crashing a 2021 HE into a 60 series.

Don’t let this distract you from the fact that Hector is going to be running three Honda Civics with Spoon engines, and on top of that, he just went into Harry’s and bought three t66 turbos with NOS, and a Motec exhaust system.

In all seriousness, if I were going to buy a vehicle to keep for future value and Sunday drives--it wouldn't be an LC200 SUV.

My thoughts lean towards something like a 1970 Chevelle SS 454, 4 spd, in red w/black. I wouldn't mind adding one of those to the collection. That said, I'm in the invest in the stock market and enjoy the toys club.

 

[nakman]

The Supra is a different circumstance since its raise to fame came from the Fast and Furious series. I doubt the Land Cruiser will carry that same JDM car culture vibe.

I'm wondering how your logic will translate to FJ40 prices, if at all. Consider the Ford Bronco Sport had to be a slap in the face to die hard early Bronco guys, right? LC250 is to Bronco Sport, as LC300 is to Bronco Badlands... at least in my head. And yet, you can't get near a nicely restored Bronco for under $50k. so will this onslaught of new Land Cruisers drive up 40 pricing? or drive down 200 pricing? or neither.

 

[stonepa]

An easy way to better understand what is and will continue to happen, go to cars.com and search on Land Cruisers and LX570s, 2018 and newer. Select accident free and one owner vehicles. Save the search and watch what is happening to prices. Around here they are rapidly dropping. I see a lot dropping $750-$1000 a week. Sure, lots of factors including increasing supply of used LCs, other options, interest rates, etc. but bottom line is that LCs and LX prices are dropping pretty quickly. Not investment grade.

 

[Zill]

I'm wondering how your logic will translate to FJ40 prices, if at all. Consider the Ford Bronco Sport had to be a slap in the face to die hard early Bronco guys, right? LC250 is to Bronco Sport, as LC300 is to Bronco Badlands... at least in my head. And yet, you can't get near a nicely restored Bronco for under $50k. so will this onslaught of new Land Cruisers drive up 40 pricing? or drive down 200 pricing? or neither.

I would say the 40 is a classic vehicle and a different conversation entirely. It’s apples and oranges to compare a 250 to a 40.

Most of the 200’s haven’t even hit the bottom of their depreciation curves yet, and the 250 will accelerate the depreciation curve of the 200. Mainly because in the public eye, people want shiny new things and the much cheaper price of a new 250 is going to make people laugh at how much the HE 200’s are going for, and they will sit on the lots as a result.

The common mass has no idea what a 200 series Land Cruiser is, and that’s a big part of the appeal, but will also largely effect resale value once the 250 is released.

 

[gasman4u]

Don’t let this distract you from the fact that Hector is going to be running three Honda Civics with Spoon engines, and on top of that, he just went into Harry’s and bought three t66 turbos with NOS, and a Motec exhaust system.

In all seriousness, if I were going to buy a vehicle to keep for future value and Sunday drives--it wouldn't be an LC200 SUV.

My thoughts lean towards something like a 1970 Chevelle SS 454, 4 spd, in red w/black. I wouldn't mind adding one of those to the collection. That said, I'm in the invest in the stock market and enjoy the toys club.

I see you too are a refined taste shopper of Racer's Edge.

 

[Heritage 2020]

I see you too are a refined taste shopper of Racer's Edge.

Yes, and a aficionado of the tuna sandwiches (no crust) from Toretto's restaurant. Highly recommended.

Mia the waitress is the best ever.