Will Depreciating 200-Series' Hurt 100-Series' Value? (1 Viewer)

[OptimusPrime]

I was pondering this the other day - One thing that made the purchase of my 100-Series an easy one (bought it purely as a toy/second vehicle) was the feeling that it would likely never be worth less than the price I paid for it. I'd been looking at 80-Series' prior to buying the 100, but when I realized the two were largely the same price, I quickly moved over to looking for a 100. The other day though, I realized that as the re-sale value of the 200 eeks closer and closer to the (current) resale value of the 100, will the 100 series see a significant dip in value? As I'm only a soft-core off-roader, is there anything unique to the 100 that will cause it to hold its appeal/current value as 200 prices dip? (Similar to the way the 80 holds its value due to it being the last Land Cruiser sold in the US with solid axles) Stated a different way - does the 100 hold any hard competitive advantages over the 200?

Any upcoming drops in value probably won't affect whether I keep my 100 for the foreseeable future, but the thought of down the road making a step up to the modernity of a 200 for just a little more than what I paid for my 100 does sound appealing - As others start to share this sentiment, I have to wonder if the resale value of the 100 will be driven down...

Just some food for thought. Please try to leave personal bias out of your response .

 

[spaber05]

As is usually the case, I think our 100's will dip in value now that 200's are getting cheaper. As much as I actually prefer many aspects of the late model 100's (06/06) to those of the early 200's, I think the majority of buyers out there just want more space, more tech, and more luxury etc., which the 200 has.

Couple that with people just generally wanting newer vehicles, I think us 100 owners will take small hit now that 200's are more attainable.

I think the only way this trend is reversed is if the manufacturer makes a drastic deviation from the norm (i.e. the Nissan Pathfinder becoming a bloated crossover when it was a competitor to the 4Runner in the early 2000's) in which case the older models become more desirable. However, Toyota continues the keep the Land Cruiser relatively true to its name so I don't see that happening any time soon.


However, that won't stop me from keeping my 100 for a while longer

 

[re_guderian]

Pretty sure the 200 is better in about every category. Of course it will push down prices of the 100, just like every generation before it. Cars are depreciating assets, with very, very rare exceptions. Plan on your 100 being worth less than you paid for it, eventually. The only mitigating factor in the same-old, same-old pattern of lc generation pricing is the relative scarcity of the 200 series/ LX 570's, and the stupid price of their new replacements...

 

[tacoduck]

My thoughts- there were a lot more 100's made than 200's. So there is a big supply of 100's. However, 100 supply is dropping every year due to rust, wrecks, etc. so the supply is dropping. a dead reliable, capable SUV will always be desirable, which IMO sets the floor at $7k.

Cheap gas is a much bigger factor in desirability of the UJZ-100 and for that matter the 200. Gas at 4.50 a gallon would make these trucks tough to own. I wasn't here back in 06 when gas was 4.00 a gallon, but I bet it really hurt LC prices.

The 200 is bigger, clunkier, and rarer. Scarcity will make the truck very desirable for years to come. Cheap 2008's are running 30k used. thats a lot higher price point vs the ujz100...

 

[brando1]

it depends on the age, condition, and year of your car. I bought my 2001 for the same reason, and it had 150k on it. 3 years later it's still worth about the same. If yours was a 2005 with 30000 miles when you bought it, and you paid full retail for it then yes. According to your signature its a 99. At that age the car is not really depreciating other then the miles and the wear and tear.

 

[Manhattan]

The 60 Series was the best. The 80 sucked - too soft, too much luxury, too heavy... Then the 100 Series came out. Then the 80 was cool... 'cause the 100 was softer, heavier. Then the 200 Series came out. Then the 100 was cool... 'cause the 200 was softer, heavier...

Our 100s are safe - they're depreciating, but not at the rate of "regular" cars/trucks. They have two things going for them - they fall into that group of vehicles that is sought after by "category-involved" buyers. And, they're Toyotas - buyers aren't afraid of older/higher-mile Toyotas.

 

[tacoduck]

The 60 Series was the best. The 80 sucked - too soft, too much luxury, too heavy... Then the 100 Series came out. Then the 80 was cool... 'cause the 100 was softer, heavier. Then the 200 Series came out. Then the 100 was cool... 'cause the 200 was softer, heavier...

Our 100s are safe - they're depreciating, but not at the rate of "regular" cars/trucks. They have two things going for them - they fall into that group of vehicles that is sought after by "category-involved" buyers. And, they're Toyotas - buyers aren't afraid of older/higher-mile Toyotas.

What do you think is the Floor? $7k? $5k?

 

[JayM]

Resale will always drop no matter the vehicle. The thing with 100 series in good condition and lower miles is they are worth more than book value always. If you are buying a vehicle because it has great resale you will be disappointed. If you buy a vehicle because you really like it resale will never matter. Buy a new 200 for 85k including sales tax and look at book 5 years down the road an you will be lucky to get 45k out of it. Rule of thumb is 50 percent loss of value in three years on just about any new vehicle. Cruiser, 4runner and Tacoma are exceptions and with what I've seen the Tacoma is a vehicle that a guy who is very concerned with resale can hang his hat on.

 

[tacoduck]

tell that to the 911 993 crowd. every vehicle has a floor. Most chevy cars have a floor of 0. a toyota truck will have a much higher floor than zero. at some point, a desirable car can go up in value. Ask anyone that has a low mileage 4wd 20 year old tacoma.

 

[Warde]

200 has definitely caught up, I have just started to see 200s listed for a lower price than 100s

Granted the 200 will have 200k miles and the 100 will have like 60k had been driven by an elderly dentist.

There is still a ways to go before there is a real effect, most 100s list under 20k and you will not see 200s in that range for a long while

 

[johsti]

I see 80's for the same asking price as 100's. If anything the 40's, 60's and 80's seem to be going up in value. I would expect the same for the 100's as they age.

 

[abuck99]

It will be a quite a while before the value of a 200 intersects with a 100, both being in their stock form.

 

[SurfSwitch]

I bought my 100 as a "forever" project. That vehicle that is reliable enough to just keep around and keep on upgrading/fixing as needed. It was a small initial investment at 10k for locked '99. I think a lot of people are like me - looking for that swiss army knife SUV. I have no plans to sell it since for the price of a solid 200 I can have my 100 fully outfitted and I'm still likely going to be under $30k all said and done. For what it can do, it's an absolute bargain and people know it. I've gotten a few "street offers" from people leaving cars on my window asking if I want to sell it.

 

[re_guderian]

In 1998, I bought a 1983 FJ60 for $6500. It was 15 years old. In today's dollars, that's over $9600, about the going rate for a 15 year old 100 series, depending on condition, mods, etc.

In 2005, I bought a 1995 80 series for $11,000, about $13,600 in today's dollars. Probably a little under the value of a 10 year-old 100 series right now. It was modded, but had been in a wreck, had some goodies, but also some rust and an aftermarket paint job, etc. etc. .

In 2009, I bought a 9 year old 100 series for $15,000, about $16,900 in today's dollars, pretty far below the market value of a current 9 year old cruiser.

However, the increase in the base price of a Land Cruiser has outstripped inflation. In 2000, the base MSRP was ~$52K, or ~$72K in today's dollars. Now the 2017 starting MSRP is close to $85K. Cruisers are getting more expensive, so there will be an associated shift in the depreciation curve, but things will catch up eventually.

Honestly, not sure I could see myself driving a 100 series when it's 35 years old. I'm pretty glad I'm not driving my 1983 FJ60 right now, as it would be 34 years old. The newer LC is just a much better "overall" experience. It'll be the same when I switch over to a 200, and then to whatever comes after that, at which point I'll probably be done driving...

 

[re_guderian]

BTW, the MSRP of my 1983 FJ60 was $13.4 according to NADA. Inflation adjusted, that's ~$32.5K in today's dollars. The LC has over doubled in cost in 35 years...

 

[AimCOtaco]

Another factor to consider is sales volumes.
200's won't drop as low because they didn't sell nearly as many.
100's are a value and don't maintain their value as well because they built and sold tons of them when SUV's were still the main seller in north america.

I could be way off here but I think that's about right...

 

[AimCOtaco]

I see 80's for the same asking price as 100's. If anything the 40's, 60's and 80's seem to be going up in value. I would expect the same for the 100's as they age.

I don't know if this is true (that 100's will appreciate beyond inflation) because real arguments can be made that the 80 and 200 are both better than the 100 (albeit in different ways) and the 100 production volumes were so high. I don't think the 100 will ever have the classic status the 80 and older LC's have and the 200 has it beat in quality, power, comfort etc. Don't get me wrong I love my 100 but on the trail I wish it was an 80 and on the road I wish it was a 200. The 100 is just to average all around... which is why I can afford to use and abuse mine in so many wonderful ways. Fun topic!

 

[LX470Mack]

Diesel 100s are still selling in the mid $40ks here in Aus. The very first 98 and 99 with very high kms and the 4.5 petrol still average about $12k-15k.

I personally think we escape the ebb as at the end of the day a Land Cruiser is a Land Cruiser and any generation is desirable. The best 06/07 Hundreds here are going for more than the cheapest 200s with petrol and high mileage.

 

[cwmoser]

...
The 200 is bigger, clunkier, and rarer. Scarcity will make the truck very desirable for years to come. Cheap 2008's are running 30k used. thats a lot higher price point vs the ujz100...

"The 200 is bigger, clunkier, and rarer" .... and uglier, butt ugly that is.

 

[SmoothLC]

Agree with @AimCOtaco - supply and demand will play a part.

Toyota Land Cruiser U.S. Car Sales by Month and Year