LC200 price drop next year

[eatSleepWoof]

I wouldn't even think of cars as "appreciated" assets. Very few collectable cars models actually appreciate. LC is not one of them.
Regardless of price paid, this car probably wouldn't even bring same price undriven after some years.
And even if it does, storage, tax, insurance, inflation will make it liability not asset.

So quit dreaming, drive and enjoy. Yes, it's not BMW/Mercedes type of depreciation, but it's just a car.

In principle I agree 100%. In practice, between inflation and a million other factors, the market for absolutely everything is f'ing insane, and things aren't working out the way logic would expect. Many items are sitting for months with no movement, others sell at extremely inflated prices overnight.

My LX right now is worth just about as much as I paid for it 5 years ago (with nearly triple the mileage).

I'm dreaming about owning a particular trailer model and have been keeping a close eye on their market for months. A 6 year old model just sold here in town for $68k (in a matter of days). Three years ago, the exact same models, at 3-4 years of age, were being listed for $50k.

Things are crazy, and they may get crazier yet.

 

[relaxing]

The 200 series is one of the last, truly great vehicles ever made. As the market introduces more and more disposable garbage (250 series, most EVs, turbo 4-bangers, etc.), I suspect the die hards will drive even higher demand for the great vehicles from the last ~20 years.

The enthusiast market will always see the value of the big NA V8 and body-on-frame durability.
On the other hand, more used examples come on the market each year, and the old ones aren't getting junked at the same rate as your typical car.
It's probably a wash.

The new LC and GX coming in at lower prices will probably depress some of the high end used/CPO market.

 

[Gr8Daneger]

I don’t think anyone on this thread is talking about appreciation. We all know our 200 will depreciate somewhat. I just don’t think it will be as much as other brands, nor will other vehicles be a cause of depreciation as well. Like I said, some 200 will hold their value better, and if your looking for one now it’s as good as time as any except for interest rates.

 

[gasman4u]

In principle I agree 100%. In practice, between inflation and a million other factors, the market for absolutely everything is f'ing insane, and things aren't working out the way logic would expect. Many items are sitting for months with no movement, others sell at extremely inflated prices overnight.

My LX right now is worth just about as much as I paid for it 5 years ago (with nearly triple the mileage).

I'm dreaming about owning a particular trailer model and have been keeping a close eye on their market for months. A 6 year old model just sold here in town for $68k (in a matter of days). Three years ago, the exact same models, at 3-4 years of age, were being listed for $50k.

Things are crazy, and they may get crazier yet.

This is unfortunately a mindset that will need to change. Your car isn't worth more. It's that your money is worth less.

 

[eatSleepWoof]

This is unfortunately a mindset that will need to change. Your car isn't worth more. It's that your money is worth less.

Absolutely right, but doesn't change the fact that if I don't purchase something today, it may cost me more tomorrow. And this approach, of course, only perpetuates the cycle.

 

[Supra Turbo]

Yeah, better than average PRE-pandemic but that "slower than average" depreciation is probably true of most cars nowadays because used car prices are still a little higher than before pandemic.

But your LC and my LC prove my point......our LCs are NOT appreciation in value that is for sure...exception maybe the HEs. But even then, most HEs were bought at premium "market adjustment" value anyways during pandemic (and as news that Toyota discontinued production).

I'd say the LCs depreciation is still ahead of its luxury class competition around $100k mark. Look at Range Rover depreciation..

I don't think anyone is questioning whether the 200 will appreciate, its what downward impact will the Prado have on 200 values.

 

[Madtiger]

I don't think anyone is questioning whether the 200 will appreciate, its what downward impact will the Prado have on 200 values.

And for that, i predict that our LC200 values will depreciate substantially for reasons noted above.

 

[katit]

And for that, i predict that our LC200 values will depreciate substantially for reasons noted above.

I am glad I have LX, because for reasons above (LC is LC to regular person) - LX will be LX and new LX is not $55k truck.

 

[Madtiger]

I am glad I have LX, because for reasons above (LC is LC to regular person) - LX will be LX and new LX is not $55k truck.

that is actually a good point i think......

 

[katit]

that is actually a good point i think......

I was joking, I really don't think it works like that. But who knows those people... I just recently had conversation with guys who saw ad for new Land Cruiser and had to explain why it's not Land Cruiser and just monetizing on a name.

 

[Madtiger]

I was joking, I really don't think it works like that. But who knows those people... I just recently had conversation with guys who saw ad for new Land Cruiser and had to explain why it's not Land Cruiser and just monetizing on a name.

You may be right. It is not easy to convince people that my LC200 is better than the new LC. It is easier i think to say that your LX is better because it is Lexus LX...and look at all the REAL wood panels and Mark Levinson!

 

[katit]

You may be right. It is not easy to convince people that my LC200 is better than the new LC. It is easier i think to say that your LX is better because it is Lexus LX...and look at all the REAL wood panels and Mark Levinson!

Well, if you talk about my LX and your LC - of course my LX is better. Let's not argue about it, it's obvious and noone ever argued about it before. If you see my 100 series in a sig - I buy LXs on purpose. I just like more comfort things and AHC. My offroad is to get to hunt/fish site. And cheaper too! Used to be cheaper for LC when used, but when I was buying new LX570 it was cheaper than LC with markups!

 

[Jetboy]

My guess is that really the GX550 sets a firm hard price cap for the LC200. It's likely better in almost every way mechanically from chassis to powertrain to suspension - with the open question on engine. I'll take the TTV6. The LC200 interior is not very durable. High mile LC200's look pretty terrible in my experience looking at a dozen or so used LC and LXs. They don't age well inside. I tend to think the LC250 will also be more valuable to most buyers, so I'd expect a clean used late edition LC200 to have a market value around $50-60k by the end of 2024 and the rest of the LC200 market to go down from there.

This would all be dependent on fuel prices. If we see $8 or $10/gal fuel - I'd take another $5-10k off the value of the LC200.

Just my guess. Probably a good value at that point. I'll try to remember to re-visit and see how far off this was.

 

[rlynch356]

My take is the LC200 market will drop some but not a lot. It will be organic, and mileage dependent.
BUT it will transition to an enthusiast buyer instead of the normal retail buyer (they will just get a 250/GX)…

Scarcity will always drive the LC200 market, there just aren’t a lot around really, even when compared to the FJcruiser - that is an enthusiast market driving the price.. and there are many times more FJC than 200’s out there .

Purely my speculation

 

[Madtiger]

My guess is that really the GX550 sets a firm hard price cap for the LC200. It's likely better in almost every way mechanically from chassis to powertrain to suspension - with the open question on engine. I'll take the TTV6. The LC200 interior is not very durable. High mile LC200's look pretty terrible in my experience looking at a dozen or so used LC and LXs. They don't age well inside. I tend to think the LC250 will also be more valuable to most buyers, so I'd expect a clean used late edition LC200 to have a market value around $50-60k by the end of 2024 and the rest of the LC200 market to go down from there.

This would all be dependent on fuel prices. If we see $8 or $10/gal fuel - I'd take another $5-10k off the value of the LC200.

Just my guess. Probably a good value at that point. I'll try to remember to re-visit and see how far off this was.

I don't know.......i checked out LX600 a while back......not that impressive with the materials. Transmission was trash. Engine was only OK...not as impressive as i imagine it would be...maybe because the transmission was bad? Ride (at least with AHC) was unimpressive.

And i think that MT Figure 8 numbers were actually worst for LX600 than LC.

 

[Jetboy]

I don't know.......i checked out LX600 a while back......not that impressive with the materials. Transmission was trash. Engine was only OK...not as impressive as i imagine it would be...maybe because the transmission was bad? Ride (at least with AHC) was unimpressive.

And i think that MT Figure 8 numbers were actually worst for LX600 than LC.

TBH - I'm not really sure who the LX600 is for. Everyone has different needs. It's just not a product I really understand the value proposition as it sort of spans the gap between the GX550 and TX, but costs a lot more than either one. Possibly as much as buying both depending on trims.

Probably unpopular opinion here: I think the primary consternation among LC200 owners vs the LC250 is related to the idea that "I paid a lot of money to be part of an exclusive club and now it's a lot cheaper to join." I'm not sure it has anything to do with the actual vehicle. Especially the GX. Nothing I've seen so far suggests it will be inferior in any physical way and a lot suggests it'll be better in meaningful ways: more power, more suspension travel, better KDSS, modern interior, better mpg, quieter interior, more range, locking rear diff, etc.

I think the market will come to the same conclusion and the LC200 will be largely forgotten as a LC wagon of yesteryear. Much like the LC100 has been for the last 15 years. Still a great platform, but you could buy them for dirt cheap. My co-worker tried to sell me theirs for $4k just a few years ago. And I said no. I just didn't have any reason to want to own it when I had a 4Runner in the driveway. But that's also the time to buy one as an excellent starting point for an adventure/weekend vehicle. So, I don't think it's necessarily bad. Just moving to the next phase in the lifecycle.

 

[bicycleagent003]

My guess is that really the GX550 sets a firm hard price cap for the LC200. It's likely better in almost every way mechanically from chassis to powertrain to suspension - with the open question on engine. I'll take the TTV6. The LC200 interior is not very durable. High mile LC200's look pretty terrible in my experience looking at a dozen or so used LC and LXs. They don't age well inside. I tend to think the LC250 will also be more valuable to most buyers, so I'd expect a clean used late edition LC200 to have a market value around $50-60k by the end of 2024 and the rest of the LC200 market to go down from there.

This would all be dependent on fuel prices. If we see $8 or $10/gal fuel - I'd take another $5-10k off the value of the LC200.

Just my guess. Probably a good value at that point. I'll try to remember to re-visit and see how far off this was.

Is the LX570 interior more durable than the 200 Series LC? I wasn't aware of that. I'm looking to buy an older used 200 Series.
Thanks.

 

[eatSleepWoof]

Is the LX570 interior more durable than the 200 Series LC? I wasn't aware of that. I'm looking to buy an older used 200 Series.
Thanks.

The LX has nicer materials, but I doubt there's a measurable difference in durability. How previous owners have treated the interior will be 10x more important than anything else.

 

[TimCFJ40]

I'd expect the floor of 200 series Crusers (not LXs) to remain around $20k for all but the oldest and most defective examples. The newer pricier trucks will continue the value decline as age and mileage drags them down, but I wouldn't expect any precipitous drops.

There are enough enthusiasts out there to keep the floor in place. Look at 100 series pricing for reference, and there are a LOT more 100s than 200s floating around out there.

The GX550 and LC250 will only cannibalize sales from the newest most expensive 200s, as the crossover between new buyers and buyers that will pay over $40k for a truck with over 100k miles is likely pretty small IMO

 

[TimCFJ40]

I think the market will come to the same conclusion and the LC200 will be largely forgotten as a LC wagon of yesteryear. Much like the LC100 has been for the last 15 years. Still a great platform, but you could buy them for dirt cheap. My co-worker tried to sell me theirs for $4k just a few years ago. And I said no. I just didn't have any reason to want to own it when I had a 4Runner in the driveway. But that's also the time to buy one as an excellent starting point for an adventure/weekend vehicle. So, I don't think it's necessarily bad. Just moving to the next phase in the lifecycle.

I tend to agree about parallels to the 100 series market, but the days of the $4k 100 series are long gone. I turned down $3k 80 series multiple times back in the early 2000s. There are so few newer SUVs with the strength and reliability of the last two decades of cruisers that a cult following will keep consuming them at prices well above their non Toyota peers for the next few decades.

As I said above, the newer ones still have a ways to fall, but I doubt you'll ever see a $4k 200 that isn't totaled.