Now that Apocalypse is on... Where do you take your 200?

[Fisher23]

For now the USA % mortality is low "currently" for several reasons, the high numbers of infected is recent due to the delay in testing, when they get critical they have not overflowed the containment areas. These areas are special areas which have breathing apprentices and "negative atmospheric pressures". If those areas overflow before summer hits those mortality rates likely will change. Summer as the flue virus doesn't live in the hot weather very well. It doesn't like cold or hot.

I'll be more concerned myself if they don't find a vaccination by November. It could be a bad December. I hope most the $$ goes into research.

Another thing they don't tell you is those n95 masks do not have one size fits all, just like scuba gear different faces fit different masks.

 

[Markuson]

Eyes going weird again, so going to stop trying to read for a while.

With autocorrect helping a ton now (thanks apple), Will just say that I think this 200 community is remarkably rational, reasonable and generally kind.

Thanks all.

 

[Fisher23]

I would expect our mortality rate to jump significantly. South Korea didn't have their healthcare system overrun. Neither have we for the time being. Once we run out of ventilators or can't get them where they are needed, or have a shortage of staff to admit and treat the patients, we will start to see Italy numbers. I'm happy that our functioning healthcare system is achieving results similar to South Korea's functioning healthcare system. I just don't think that will hold once our healthcare system is no longer functioning... ie. rationing care, choosing who lives and who dies due to ventilator/staff shortages. Many, many people will die that could have been saved with basic treatment, only this time someone might notice since for once, it won't just be people who can't afford insurance doing the dying.

There is going to some tough calls in the ICU. You have 7 patients and 2 are coding and you have 1 machine, who do you go to? They used to have a 3 patients to 1 nurse in ICU now it's 7 to 1. Mostly because of corporate greed. Then if you have some older patient coding and a younger patient coding and you can only save one which is that nurse gong to pick to keep their job?

I think this imbalance of nurses to patients may get some publicity with this event.

 

[TheGrrrrr]

There is going to some tough calls in the ICU. You have 7 patients and 2 are coding and you have 1 machine, who do you go to? They used to have a 3 patients to 1 nurse in ICU now it's 7 to 1. Mostly because of corporate greed. Then if you have some older patient coding and a younger patient coding and you can only save one which is that nurse gong to pick to keep their job?

I think this imbalance of nurses to patients may get some publicity with this event.

Aside from policy changes coming out of this, we as a country are going to have to make mental health a priority that many wars still haven't made it. I can't imagine the PTSD and guilt from making those decisions, the support that will be needed for the families of victims who couldn't say goodbye or even grieve properly, for the 'essential' workers who will have spent months terrified by their job day/night, for the older children and young adults who's view of the world is being shaped by this event and even the rest of us who are living with existential fear/financial uncertainty/isolation. This is going to mess with a lot of peoples mental health and we aren't prepared for the ways that will manifest in society.

 

[chiplee]

As gruesome as it is, one twisted positive way to view these terrible ICU decisions that might help the caregivers cope is that very few people over 65 who end up needing intubated for Covid-19 will live anyway. “Generally, after intubation, 31 percent of patients ages 65 to 74 survive the hospitalization and return home. But for 80-84 year-olds, that figure drops to 19 percent; for those over age 90, it slides to 14 percent.” The survival rates after intubation in these age groups for people with Covid-19 have been MUCH lower, in some cases under 5% from age 65 on if I recall correctly. Everyone deserves a chance, and the decision will still be gut wrenching, but it will be an easy and obvious decision in many cases. You intubate the person who could make it.

 

[M1911]

I would expect our mortality rate to jump significantly. South Korea didn't have their healthcare system overrun. Neither have we for the time being. Once we run out of ventilators or can't get them where they are needed, or have a shortage of staff to admit and treat the patients, we will start to see Italy numbers. I'm happy that our functioning healthcare system is achieving results similar to South Korea's functioning healthcare system. I just don't think that will hold once our healthcare system is no longer functioning... ie. rationing care, choosing who lives and who dies due to ventilator/staff shortages. Many, many people will die that could have been saved with basic treatment, only this time someone might notice since for once, it won't just be people who can't afford insurance doing the dying.

I don't think we will quite get to Italy's numbers for a few reasons.

1) Italy's median age is about 10 years greater than ours.
2) Italy has a higher rate of smoking.
3) I think Italy has higher rates of pollution (specifically particulates from diesel engine cars) in their cities.

#1 is definitely directly related to increased morbidity. I suspect the same is true for #2 and #3. Time will tell.

That said, I do agree with your main point. If our healthcare system becomes overwhelmed then our morbidity rate will increase significantly.

 

[M1911]

In fact, there are still some megachurches holding services here in the US.

One of those clowns, Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne, has been arrested by Sheriffs Deputies.

 

[gaijin]

As gruesome as it is, one twisted positive way to view these terrible ICU decisions that might help the caregivers cope is that very few people over 65 who end up needing intubated for Covid-19 will live anyway. “Generally, after intubation, 31 percent of patients ages 65 to 74 survive the hospitalization and return home. But for 80-84 year-olds, that figure drops to 19 percent; for those over age 90, it slides to 14 percent.” The survival rates after intubation in these age groups for people with Covid-19 have been MUCH lower, in some cases under 5% from age 65 on if I recall correctly. Everyone deserves a chance, and the decision will still be gut wrenching, but it will be an easy and obvious decision in many cases. You intubate the person who could make it.

That's very encouraging for a 70 year old VietNam vet with COPD who lives 2,000 miles away from his only living relative - know anybody like that? Come on, take a guess.

I happened to bump into a guy in an international airport once who changed my life. We were both waiting for connecting flights - he was going to somewhere in India and I was flying home to Japan. While I was trying hard to lose myself in some paperback I'd picked up at an airport book store, he was doing dips using the arms on his chair. My first thought was, "Geez, can't this guy just sit still?" But there was something about the way this guy looked and moved that made me think there might be something more to him than just a frustrated gym rat, so I introduced myself and we started talking. I don't remember his name, but he said he was going to climb mountains. When I asked if that was why he was doing impromptu exercises while waiting, his answer caught me off guard - he said, "I'm doing my best to control the subjectives."

When I asked what he meant, he explained that the "subjectives" are what we have control over, as opposed to the "objectives" over which we have no control. And when it comes down to it, it makes no sense to worry about the objectives, just do our best to control the subjectives. So, in his case, the subjectives were things like his physical conditioning, choosing what mountain to climb, who to go with, when to go, what equipment to bring, etc. Those are the things worth worrying about and doing one's best to control. Once the decisions are made, and the preparations are complete, everything else is beyond one's control. At that point, one should not waste time worrying about what has been done to prepare, just concentrate on how one best applies one's resources to the current problem.

Upon reflection, I realized that in my personal life I was wasting a lot of time worrying about things that were totally out of my control - the objectives - and not enough time focusing my life on improving my subjectives.

Indulge me just a little longer.

Again in an airport - Charles de Gaulle in Paris - I was flying in from London and when I disembarked I found myself in a sea of humanity waiting to get through passport control. It was early 1979. Most of the waiting passengers were from the Middle East and there were only two or three gates open to process what must have been more than 3,000 people. I knew I was in for a long wait as where I was there were not even established lines to get into, just a mass of humanity hoping to move forward. I was not a patient person, and I guess my countenance made that pretty obvious.

After a while, I saw a guy near me who was very casually leaning on his only luggage - what looked like a sample case on wheels with a handle. He was reading a paperback and looked totally composed. The book was in English, so I greeted him hoping to maybe make the time pass more quickly with some conversation. Turns out he was a great guy to talk to, with an interesting story. Still not sure why he was in Iran in the first place, but he said he had to leave in a hurry because of all the unrest and riots - everything he owned was in his rather small sample case. Turns out he was fleeing the Iran Revolution shortly befall the Shah fell. When I asked him how he could be so calm, he simply said, "Don't sweat the small stuff." In that moment, I realized that what I viewed as all my worldly troubles (the huge crowd at the airport) was to this guy, simply, "small stuff."

So, I guess it's all about perspective. Control the subjectives. Don't sweat the small stuff.

HTH

 

[tincan45]

Spotted an apocalypse 200...

 

[chiplee]

That's very encouraging for a 70 year old VietNam vet with COPD who lives 2,000 miles away from his only living relative - know anybody like that? Come on, take a guess.

I happened to bump into a guy in an international airport once who changed my life. We were both waiting for connecting flights - he was going to somewhere in India and I was flying home to Japan. While I was trying hard to lose myself in some paperback I'd picked up at an airport book store, he was doing dips using the arms on his chair. My first thought was, "Geez, can't this guy just sit still?" But there was something about the way this guy looked and moved that made me think there might be something more to him than just a frustrated gym rat, so I introduced myself and we started talking. I don't remember his name, but he said he was going to climb mountains. When I asked if that was why he was doing impromptu exercises while waiting, his answer caught me off guard - he said, "I'm doing my best to control the subjectives."

When I asked what he meant, he explained that the "subjectives" are what we have control over, as opposed to the "objectives" over which we have no control. And when it comes down to it, it makes no sense to worry about the objectives, just do our best to control the subjectives. So, in his case, the subjectives were things like his physical conditioning, choosing what mountain to climb, who to go with, when to go, what equipment to bring, etc. Those are the things worth worrying about and doing one's best to control. Once the decisions are made, and the preparations are complete, everything else is beyond one's control. At that point, one should not waste time worrying about what has been done to prepare, just concentrate on how one best applies one's resources to the current problem.

Upon reflection, I realized that in my personal life I was wasting a lot of time worrying about things that were totally out of my control - the objectives - and not enough time focusing my life on improving my subjectives.

Indulge me just a little longer.

Again in an airport - Charles de Gaulle in Paris - I was flying in from London and when I disembarked I found myself in a sea of humanity waiting to get through passport control. It was early 1979. Most of the waiting passengers were from the Middle East and there were only two or three gates open to process what must have been more than 3,000 people. I knew I was in for a long wait as where I was there were not even established lines to get into, just a mass of humanity hoping to move forward. I was not a patient person, and I guess my countenance made that pretty obvious.

After a while, I saw a guy near me who was very casually leaning on his only luggage - what looked like a sample case on wheels with a handle. He was reading a paperback and looked totally composed. The book was in English, so I greeted him hoping to maybe make the time pass more quickly with some conversation. Turns out he was a great guy to talk to, with an interesting story. Still not sure why he was in Iran in the first place, but he said he had to leave in a hurry because of all the unrest and riots - everything he owned was in his rather small sample case. Turns out he was fleeing the Iran Revolution shortly befall the Shah fell. When I asked him how he could be so calm, he simply said, "Don't sweat the small stuff." In that moment, I realized that what I viewed as all my worldly troubles (the huge crowd at the airport) was to this guy, simply, "small stuff."

So, I guess it's all about perspective. Control the subjectives. Don't sweat the small stuff.

HTH

Thanks for sharing and thanks for your service. Retired Marine gulf war vet myself. Wish I had your memory. I was in over thirty countries in my career, but saw most of them either through the canopy of an F-18 or the bottom of a beer bottle unfortunately. I’m immune suppressed, so I don’t expect to fare well (or get vent priority) if infected either. I would only debate one point. I think it’s in our power to control this, and I wish our leadership would tell people at low risk in very clear terms exactly what grave danger their behavior could cause for people at high risk. The story has been “we need more ventilators,” as if they’re going to work for the elderly, but they’re not. The story needs to be, we need to shut it all down and quarantine/protect high risk individuals.

 

[linuxgod]

An interesting read from back in 1981

View attachment 2254013

diskette record. haha!

 

[linuxgod]

As of March 30, the Us has a nearly identical mortality rate to Sough Korea:

Columns are known infections...deaths...and mortality %
View attachment 2254416

For me, there is no country I’d rather be in than the US right now and I think statistics ratios will start to show that more and more as this thing plays out. But who k owe. We’ll see... Hoping for the best, but remembering the potential worst.

See full list here:

COVID-19 death rate by country 2022| Statista

COVID-19 deaths per capita were 2 to 3 times higher in Italy, the UK and Belgium than in the United States.

www.statista.com

It's not the 2% mortality rate that's the issue, per se, it's that the US was so far behind trying to stop it we're not talking about 2% of 10k people (like Korea) or even 2% of 100k people at this point. Without any efforts to stop the spread you're talking about 2% of maybe 50% of the US population, which is closer to 5 million people. Enough people get sick at once and overwhelm the hospitals and suddenly 2% mortality starts moving to 3 or 4% or more though.

Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather be in the US dealing with this than in India, Italy, or the UK (my company has offices in all 3 places), but the politicians needed to stop denying it weeks earlier (and this isn't directly solely at Trump... De Blasio should've should've shut down NYC schools much sooner). Dems and Reps should all share the blame. As @Lester did that points out the US doesn't have any experience in this (save for the Spanish Flu from over 100 years ago) but if the pols had tried to lock things down in early Feb before there was any sense of urgency unfortunately the vast majority of the voting public would've run them out of town on a rail.

 

[1world1love]

Its hard to disagree with much that has been discussed here. Regardless of your political leanings, I hope our leaders on all sides will take some humility and humanity from this. Once this is "over", it will have had a global-altering effect on daily life. Maybe not forever, but probably for the remainder of many of our lives. Sadly it won't be the last either. Let's hope these painful lessons will ultimately have a positive impact.

Personally speaking, my wife and I have attempted to use this time as a teaching opportunity for our kids and to also appreciate having some "forced" family time. I feel bad for all the people who are suffering either financially or health wise so I hope nobody takes offense, but to be honest, even if I contracted COVID19 tomorrow, I would still view the past couple of weeks as a gift (for me) in a lot of ways. its not often that you have the opportunity to spend 3 weeks (and counting) with your wife, teen, and pre-teen kids, and with very few distractions.

My wife and I are both lucky to be able to work remotely so our days are mostly the same. The kids have remote learning from 9-1 and then have homework. After that, we cook, binge watch, play board games, play video games, have light saber duals, paint, etc. We go on walks in the afternoon together.

My wife and I have been so busy with work over the past couple of years, we are at the point where it will all start passing us by if we are not careful. These three weeks I have been fortunate to be reminded to appreciate what I have, but I have also simultaneously been afforded some dedicated time and space to appreciate it.

 

[chiplee]

Its hard to disagree with much that has been discussed here. Regardless of your political leanings, I hope our leaders on all sides will take some humility and humanity from this. Once this is "over", it will have had a global-altering effect on daily life. Maybe not forever, but probably for the remainder of many of our lives. Sadly it won't be the last either. Let's hope these painful lessons will ultimately have a positive impact.

Personally speaking, my wife and I have attempted to use this time as a teaching opportunity for our kids and to also appreciate having some "forced" family time. I feel bad for all the people who are suffering either financially or health wise so I hope nobody takes offense, but to be honest, even if I contracted COVID19 tomorrow, I would still view the past couple of weeks as a gift (for me) in a lot of ways. its not often that you have the opportunity to spend 3 weeks (and counting) with your wife, teen, and pre-teen kids, and with very few distractions.

My wife and I are both lucky to be able to work remotely so our days are mostly the same. The kids have remote learning from 9-1 and then have homework. After that, we cook, binge watch, play board games, play video games, have light saber duals, paint, etc. We go on walks in the afternoon together.

My wife and I have been so busy with work over the past couple of years, we are at the point where it will all start passing us by if we are not careful. These three weeks I have been fortunate to be reminded to appreciate what I have, but I have also simultaneously been afforded some dedicated time and space to appreciate it.

My wife and I were just discussing how common we bet this phenomenon will be. I know for us it’s been a welcome outcome of an unfortunate and tragic situation. I have a desk job and a spine disease that responds well to being active, so being home has my pain level way down. Hell I’ve lost 13lbs since this started. We have enough passive income to quit working whenever we want if we make a few changes, but we’ve never really had the nerve to try it. Having been forced to try it with full pay is an unheard of gift. People keep talking about it hurting marriages for everyone to be home together so much. But in our case her inner germaphobe loves that the family finally sanitizes everything and my inner poor kid loves that we never waste a dollar on drive throughs and restaurants anymore, so we’re getting along great! Home schooling is fun. I bet a lot of people are re-evaluating our system and the rat race we all begrudgingly participate in.

 

[Canyonero]

I appreciate everyone's thoughts and input on this thread. As usual, 200 Series Land Cruiser people are thoughtful and intelligent with their approach to a problem.

Like many, I've been binging on news. One of the interesting stories I came across was how Singapore has handled Covid19 with contact tracing. First with specialists designated to investigate (quickly) the immediate history of someone who tested positive, and now also with the help of a phone app. -- Singapore government launches new app for contact tracing to combat spread of COVID-19

That ship has sailed in the US, at least for the current exponential growth of infections we are seeing, but the technology itself could and probably should be implemented here the next time (we all know there will be a next time) this or another virus hits our shores. Maybe it could become a standard procedure.

I'm in a fortunate position to be able to work remotely and in an industry that is fairly resistant to economic winds and deemed "essential" (residential property management), but I'm also in a unique position to see the economic toll this nationwide lockdown (albeit a poorly conceived one with even worse execution) is having on renters across the country- 36% of the US rents their home.

Already in April, we are seeing a dramatic drop off in people's ability to pay rent (a bill typically prioritized - on a given month we have over 99% payment rates with 500 doors), and that includes tenants ranging from service industry employees to white-collar tenants paying $3,000/month rent with rental properties in other parts of the country. May is going to be devastating - the writing is on the wall. I wouldn't be too surprised if we see 70% or more of our tenants unable to pay. My contact with all of these different domains of employment feels like I'm seeing the canary in the coalmine drop dead.

Virtually no industry is going to come out of this unscathed. It's only April 2nd, so in looking forward at least 30 days - knowing that cases will spike, deaths will spike, and millions are unemployed and without any financial means to care for themselves or their family, I'm concerned where this could lead. Hopefully, the Federal Gov't will be able to print enough money to keep the wheels from falling off, but so far it seems they are behind the 8-ball on every move they make.

 

[Willie G]

I appreciate everyone's thoughts and input on this thread. As usual, 200 Series Land Cruiser people are thoughtful and intelligent with their approach to a problem.

Like many, I've been binging on news. One of the interesting stories I came across was how Singapore has handled Covid19 with contact tracing. First with specialists designated to investigate (quickly) the immediate history of someone who tested positive, and now also with the help of a phone app. -- Singapore government launches new app for contact tracing to combat spread of COVID-19

That ship has sailed in the US, at least for the current exponential growth of infections we are seeing, but the technology itself could and probably should be implemented here the next time (we all know there will be a next time) this or another virus hits our shores. Maybe it could become a standard procedure.

I'm in a fortunate position to be able to work remotely and in an industry that is fairly resistant to economic winds and deemed "essential" (residential property management), but I'm also in a unique position to see the economic toll this nationwide lockdown (albeit a poorly conceived one with even worse execution) is having on renters across the country- 36% of the US rents their home.

Already in April, we are seeing a dramatic drop off in people's ability to pay rent (a bill typically prioritized - on a given month we have over 99% payment rates with 500 doors), and that includes tenants ranging from service industry employees to white-collar tenants paying $3,000/month rent with rental properties in other parts of the country. May is going to be devastating - the writing is on the wall. I wouldn't be too surprised if we see 70% or more of our tenants unable to pay. My contact with all of these different domains of employment feels like I'm seeing the canary in the coalmine drop dead.

Virtually no industry is going to come out of this unscathed. It's only April 2nd, so in looking forward at least 30 days - knowing that cases will spike, deaths will spike, and millions are unemployed and without any financial means to care for themselves or their family, I'm concerned where this could lead. Hopefully, the Federal Gov't will be able to print enough money to keep the wheels from falling off, but so far it seems they are behind the 8-ball on every move they make.

Well considered and stated. Thank you.

 

[linuxgod]

I appreciate everyone's thoughts and input on this thread. As usual, 200 Series Land Cruiser people are thoughtful and intelligent with their approach to a problem.

Like many, I've been binging on news. One of the interesting stories I came across was how Singapore has handled Covid19 with contact tracing. First with specialists designated to investigate (quickly) the immediate history of someone who tested positive, and now also with the help of a phone app. -- Singapore government launches new app for contact tracing to combat spread of COVID-19

That ship has sailed in the US, at least for the current exponential growth of infections we are seeing, but the technology itself could and probably should be implemented here the next time (we all know there will be a next time) this or another virus hits our shores. Maybe it could become a standard procedure.

I'm in a fortunate position to be able to work remotely and in an industry that is fairly resistant to economic winds and deemed "essential" (residential property management), but I'm also in a unique position to see the economic toll this nationwide lockdown (albeit a poorly conceived one with even worse execution) is having on renters across the country- 36% of the US rents their home.

Already in April, we are seeing a dramatic drop off in people's ability to pay rent (a bill typically prioritized - on a given month we have over 99% payment rates with 500 doors), and that includes tenants ranging from service industry employees to white-collar tenants paying $3,000/month rent with rental properties in other parts of the country. May is going to be devastating - the writing is on the wall. I wouldn't be too surprised if we see 70% or more of our tenants unable to pay. My contact with all of these different domains of employment feels like I'm seeing the canary in the coalmine drop dead.

Virtually no industry is going to come out of this unscathed. It's only April 2nd, so in looking forward at least 30 days - knowing that cases will spike, deaths will spike, and millions are unemployed and without any financial means to care for themselves or their family, I'm concerned where this could lead. Hopefully, the Federal Gov't will be able to print enough money to keep the wheels from falling off, but so far it seems they are behind the 8-ball on every move they make.

We have an office in Singapore which had immediately moved to working from home in January/February, with only essential employees going into the office. I can second that everything Singapore did absolutely made a huge difference in containing this and limiting its growth, though I believe today they ultimately decided to lock down the country as well (they are referring to it as a "circuit breaker"). That said it's not their first rodeo, and whether it's cultural or just experience most citizens of asian countries seem willing and ready to give up their freedom of movement, privacy/tracking, etc for the good of the country as a whole.

Being in finance, I see what's happening in the oil, treasury/bond, futures, and stock markets every day. While I am not a fan of getting people back to work too soon (and risking a larger secondary wave of infections), I can say that if this continues past April the damage to the US (never mind the global) economy is going to be horrendous and take years if not longer to recover from. The entire world is linked financially. When people stop paying rent the landlords stop paying their mortgages. Keep in mind the days of your local bank or mortgage lender actually holding your loan are gone - they make loans and those get bundled and packaged up and sold to investors, so the bank can't just let you skip a couple months until you get back on your feet because THEY need to pay the investors or else their bonds/credit swaps go into default.

I'm personally grateful I have a job I can do from home, even if I only feel maybe 90% effective when I'm not in the office face-to-face with people. I only wish we had managed to sell our other house before moving, because while we were getting great traffic when it went on the market in February, now we're getting zero interest. I've been considering just renting it, but I know even that is going to be a challenge now. (So if someone is looking for a place near Chicago and thinks the current economic situation is temporary, I'll make you a great deal on a 4 bedroom house...)

 

[chiplee]

Yeah, it’s bad. The US lost around 9 million jobs in the entire financial crisis. It’s lost 10M in the last two weeks. In historical context, that’s a 40 standard deviation event. Here’s a visualization of it.

 

[BigMF]

I cannot tell you all how glad I am to find a social outlet that does not turn into everyone yelling at each other, especially in a time of crisis.

When I first saw this thread, I assumed it was going to turn into a bunch of threads about where people were heading and I'm glad to see that the vast majority of you are using some common sense. I saw a great video on the #LifestyleOverland youtube channel about things that a lot of people might not consider if they decide to "bug out" into a rural area. For example, as we all know by now, you could have no symptoms and yet be carrying the virus out to these small towns where you fill up with fuel and provisions before heading into the wilderness. Also, if you do get sick and decline rapidly, you may not make it to a hospital in time and even if you do, they may not have the resources to support you.

Here in the south, there are churches everywhere and they often have a small saying on their sign. The best one I've seen in a long time was "Say your prayers and wash your hands because Jesus and germs are everywhere."

God bless and stay safe!

 

[Fisher23]

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot ... I knew this was going to come out.