Now that Apocalypse is on... Where do you take your 200?

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It’s nice seeing the calm way everybody is discussing the pandemic. I’m trying not to read the news to much because it’s terrifying, but I also want to be informed. It’s a tough balance.
My little town has a ton of off-roading in the oregon dunes. When the stay at home order was first announced a lot of people took that as an opportunity to come to the dunes though. Driving on the dunes solo isn’t a problem, but driving hundreds of miles to them increases social contact. Stops at gas station, snacks, etc.
Plus the risk of injury is very real. Everything is shut down now. All the dunes, most beaches, parks, etc..
Its pretty weird.
 
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I just got back from a few days in Seoul. One of the first countries hit by COVID after China. Malls are open, streets are full, traffic is bad, planes are flying (not as busy with much less international travel).

Seoul has over 2x the population density as our most dense cities. So, why are they not in full shutdown/panic mode?

Not sure what they're doing right we're doing wrong!?!


And, guys are getting sh!t on for wanting to take their rigs to a ORV park or for a drive because they have to get gas? I don't get it. Use had sanitizer, spray bleach on the gas pump. Sanitize and be safe--and avoid touching your face.
 
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I just got back from a few days in Seoul. One of the first countries hit by COVID after China. Malls are open, streets are full, traffic is bad, planes are flying (not as busy with much less international travel).

Seoul has over 2x the population density as our most dense cities. So, why are they not in full shutdown/panic mode?

Not sure what they're doing right we're doing wrong!?!


And, guys are getting sh!t on for wanting to take their rigs to a ORV park or for a drive because they have to get gas? I don't get it. Use had sanitizer, spray bleach on the gas pump. Sanitize and be safe--and avoid touching your face.
I agree. You don’t get it. South Korea hit it out of the park on their response to this pandemic. They tested early and aggressively, quarantined everyone who was infected and everyone they had been in contact with and they took asymptomatic spread seriously. The US could have modeled its response after South Korea’s or Germany’s or any place that wasn’t filled with and ran by anti-intellectuals, but instead we’ll ride the freedom and personal liberty train straight to hell and kill hundreds of thousands of people in the process.
 
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Yeah my cousin took a job in South Korea right before the outbreak. The family was worried about her being there, then it turned out it ended up being way Safer than staying home in US.
I think the situation with OHV parks where I’m at is a little different than the previous poster. A guy tooling around in the desert in a 200 is fairly low risk.
where I’m at there can be hundreds of guys on quads, dirt bikes, etc zooming around in the dunes and some always end up in local ER. The local hospital is trying to stay as empty as possible to deal with the local retirement population in case the virus hits here.
That’s super interesting about Korea though. Hopefully it means the US will end up being OK sooner rather than later.
 
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I agree. You don’t get it. South Korea hit it out of the park on their response to this pandemic. They tested early and aggressively, quarantined everyone who was infected and everyone they had been in contact with and they took asymptomatic spread seriously. The US could have modeled its response after South Korea’s or Germany’s or any place that wasn’t filled with and ran by anti-intellectuals, but instead we’ll ride the freedom and personal liberty train straight to hell and kill hundreds of thousands of people in the process.


Testing is key. Practicing correct hygiene also. Jumping in your rig and not interacting with any one isn't ant-intellectual and isn't going to make a rat-s*** bit of difference. I'd rather some one do that than go visit a neighbor.

You place your self, your family and society at infinitely greater risk by shopping for groceries and TP. Do you know how many hands have touched the stuff you are buying? Did you spray everything down with bleach or hydrogen peroxide before you brought it home? How many carts/door handles/ etc did you touch before you grabbed an item? And, God forbid, did you use cash to pay for something?

So, I get back to my point. We do appear to be enter the dark ages again. And some people think it's their right to party on the beach, but let's not crap on the guy who just wants to take his rig out to sight see. Not stop any where (except maybe gas) and drive right back into his garage.


Time for us all to take a breath.
 
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Joined
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Testing is key. Practicing correct hygiene also. Jumping in your rig and not interacting with any one isn't ant-intellectual and isn't going to make a rat-s*** bit of difference. I'd rather some one do that than go visit a neighbor.

You place your self, your family and society at infinitely greater risk by shopping for groceries and TP. Do you know how many hands have touched the stuff you are buying? Did you spray everything down with bleach or hydrogen peroxide before you brought it home? How many carts/door handles/ etc did you touch before you grabbed an item? And, God forbid, did you use cash to pay for something?

So, I get back to my point. We do appear to be enter the dark ages again. And some people think it's their right to party on the beach, but let's not crap on the guy who just wants to take his rig out to sightsee. Not stop any where (except maybe gas) and drive right back into his garage.

Yes, I did wipe down every item I brought in and hand sanitize after every surface I touched. As an aside, hand sanitizer can take up to 10 minutes to do its job after you apply it, so don’t think you’re cleared hot to scratch that face itch as soon as you apply it.

I didn’t see someone getting crapped on, but I didn’t read every post either. I took your post to be more about how big of a deal the pandemic is in general and you seemed to think it wouldn’t be a big deal. How big of a deal it will be will depend on how aggressively and consistently the people in effected regions react. Our reaction so far will ensure max carnage; max loss of life and deepest economic impact. It doesn’t help that the most popular charts going around are logarithmic not linear and not normalized by population. These paint a more accurate picture of how badly we’re effing this up.

And yeah, it’s harmless enough to go tool around in the wilderness. Just a little extra caution so as not to burden the rescue crews and emergency services would be smart.

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An interesting read from back in 1981

View attachment 2254013
I actually read this book and it’s silly this is going around. First off, when it was originally published, the virus was called “Gorki-400 in reference to a Russian locality. The name of the weapon was changed to "Wuhan-400" when the book was released again in 1989. It also said the virus had a 100% mortality rate and only infected humans.
 
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Brooklyn NY
I agree. You don’t get it. South Korea hit it out of the park on their response to this pandemic. They tested early and aggressively, quarantined everyone who was infected and everyone they had been in contact with and they took asymptomatic spread seriously. The US could have modeled its response after South Korea’s or Germany’s or any place that wasn’t filled with and ran by anti-intellectuals, but instead we’ll ride the freedom and personal liberty train straight to hell and kill hundreds of thousands of people in the process.
South Korea has dealt with regional pandemics for years. They have a plan in place that has been practiced in real time and they constantly learn and adjust. This is new to most of the western world. We also have a lot of red tape set up in all levels of government that make things move a lot slower. South Korea sits back and says ok here it comes. We have a plan lets act now preemptively. Been there done that. We are just being reactive to the situation and unfortunately its a moot point now. I can't blame us we never dealt with anything like this before. If the government said at the end of january this is coming and we are quarantining the nation now and want to test everybody 99% of the population would call it some sort of fake something or hype. I would! Hind sight is 20/20. When we get thru this we will all take these things more serious and learn from it. It's a learning curve and South Korea is ahead of us on this one. Besides we have a larger country and even if we took all of South Koreas advice we couldn't comply. I'm sure the conversation would go like this. South Korea" This is a respiratory illness that is highly contagious. Shut all work down for three weeks the first case you get before it spreads. Pull out your emergency stock pile of PPE and ventilators. Its a lung thing. Start testing everyone with drive thru testing. Release the military and police to enforce the quarantine. This worked for us with SARS MER and some nasty flu strains with out long term disruptions." America" yeah no we can't do that, why would have a stock pile of PPE? who would pay for that? We can't shut everything down because there are 3 people with a cold here? What is this ventilator thing you keep talking about? how much do those cost? Testing how again and why? Besides those tests need to be CDC and FDA approved that takes months or years. We can't shut everything down it will destroy the economy. Like we said there are only 3 people here with a cold." South Korea "uhhhhhh ok and good luck." phone hangs up and there is laughter in the South Korean room. My inlaws are Korean and they are hilarious to talk to right now. Taking their advice right now. Its that long vacation you always prayed for. It's not airborne ebola.

Now I go start a deep clean on the interior. Curious what I will find under the drivers seat. Hopefully some small items that went missing from my pockets?
 
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I just got back from a few days in Seoul. One of the first countries hit by COVID after China. Malls are open, streets are full, traffic is bad, planes are flying (not as busy with much less international travel).

Seoul has over 2x the population density as our most dense cities. So, why are they not in full shutdown/panic mode?
Testing. South Korea has tested about 500,000 people. As a result, South Korea has been able to contain the virus.

We were completely let down by the leadership at the FDA and CDC. They stuck with their regulations and red tape, greatly slowing down testing. Because of hubris and bureaucratic bickering, we were too late in rolling out testing. The virus is now out of the barn, past the back 40, and leaving the neighbor's ranch. And we still don't have enough testing.

Here is a good article about the testing failures: The Lost Month: How a Failure to Test Blinded the U.S. to Covid-19

I think the White House could have knocked heads together at the FDA and CDC early, but Trump wasn't convinced of the severity of the crisis until it was too late. The problem with exponentially spreading pandemics is that when the epidemiologists are jumping up and down screaming, it seems everything is fine. By the time it is completely apparent that we're in a mess, we are already on the rising part of the hockey stick graph.

From the worldometer site:

covid19.png


Two weeks ago, a lot of people near me were saying things like "this is ridiculous, there are only 100 cases in MA, it's just panic". People just don't grok exponential growth.

I believe that the South Korean culture (like China's and Japan's) is a lot more concerned about social norms and doing what is best for society. We have a stronger individualism along with a big strain of distrust of the media and government. So too many people were saying this is overblown, nothing to worry about, continue life as normal. They went ahead with their normal life and the result is more people dead. In fact, there are still some megachurches holding services here in the US.

Here is one such clown:

Pastor Spell told local news outlet NBC15 earlier this month that he didn’t believe his congregation was in danger of infection. “It’s not a concern,” he said. “The virus, we believe, is politically motivated. We hold our religious rights dear and we are going to assemble no matter what someone says.
And another:

The River Church in Tampa, Florida, also held services this Sunday. Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne posted a livestream of the services on YouTube, showing the sizable crowd. Howard-Browne said attendees were practicing “social distancing, or whatever” though the crowd appeared to be dense.

“We are not a non-essential service,” Howard-Browne said during the service. “You’re probably going to get infected at some other place, not here.
Denial is not a river in Egypt.
 
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Markuson

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Yeah my cousin took a job in South Korea right before the outbreak. The family was worried about her being there, then it turned out it ended up being way Safer than staying home in US.
I think the situation with OHV parks where I’m at is a little different than the previous poster. A guy tooling around in the desert in a 200 is fairly low risk.
where I’m at there can be hundreds of guys on quads, dirt bikes, etc zooming around in the dunes and some always end up in local ER. The local hospital is trying to stay as empty as possible to deal with the local retirement population in case the virus hits here.
That’s super interesting about Korea though. Hopefully it means the US will end up being OK sooner rather than later.
As of March 30, the Us has a nearly identical mortality rate to Sough Korea:

Columns are known infections...deaths...and mortality %
6E07A672-AB45-4795-B66D-0C82D4B1A9B2.jpeg


For me, there is no country I’d rather be in than the US right now and I think statistics ratios will start to show that more and more as this thing plays out. But who k owe. We’ll see... Hoping for the best, but remembering the potential worst.

See full list here:
 
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Joined
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As of March 30, the Us has a nearly identical mortality rate to Sough Korea:

Columns are known infections...deaths...and mortality %
View attachment 2254416

For me, there is no country I’d rather be in than the US right now and I think statistics ratios will start to show that more and more as this thing plays out. But who k owe. We’ll see... Hoping for the best, but remembering the potential worst.

See full list here:
South Korea’s mortality rate with our infection rate is terrifying. At this point we just need to cross our fingers for one or all of the antiviral medicine or antibody transfusion treatments to pan out.
 

Markuson

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South Korea’s mortality rate with our infection rate is terrifying. At this point we just need to cross our fingers for one or all of the antiviral medicine or antibody transfusion treatments to pan out.
Agree.
Only thought was that in the list of mortality rates, the US is doing better than most.

OTOH, stats are tinged by perspective and focus, since regionally, percentages are both far better and far worse than the over-all numbers. It’s a tricky statistical dance that can be presented to support just about any impression a person seeks to impart. -If the focus is Italy, or other horrifying spots...terror. Meanwhile some other areas paint a very different sense. Neither paint a complete picture, and maybe there is no such thing as a complete picture...?

It’s bad. No question.
But how we FEEL about is truly...truly malleable, which is an interesting thought to me.

I am not suggesting one or the other perspective. It’s just interesting to me how perspectives can be all over the place—each with their own legitimate statistical justifications.

Meanwhile, we are all dealing with other parts of life. For me, I’m posting away while my eyes are working a little better. In the vast scheme of the world my eyes are nothing. But we all have lives going on. I wish everyone the very best, and also wish for graciousness to each other as we each sift through our own situations, opinions, logical thoughts and natural, real, legitimately-emotional takes on this whole thing.
 
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Agree.
Only thought was that in the list of mortality rates, the US is doing better than most...by far.

OTOH, stats are tinged by perspective and focus, since regionally, percentages are both far better and far worse than the over-all numbers. It’s a tricky statistical dance that can be presented to support just about any impression a person seeks to impart. -If they want to scare us...ficus on Itsly, New York or the facility in Washington from state. Want to encourage? Focus on elsewhere.
Right, the three categories of lie are lies, damn lies, and statistics, per Mark Twain, but there’s a way to normalize data to show compelling and non-deceptive trends, too. What you initially did (I’m sure unintentionally) is an example of something that skews the data. Talking about mortality rates outside the context of infection rates ignores fully half the equation. You know, 100M x .001 is the same as 10M x .01, 100k. The first number matters. Even regionally, it’s a scary situation here. If you were just pointing out we’re doing better than most on mortality rate, I’d say that’s not going to matter if everyone gets infected. I also don’t think you need Italy’s data to scare people. I think South Korea‘a mortality rate should scare people. They’ve tested enough to believe it’s probably pretty accurate, and if we let it infect 40% of the population here then south Korea’s mortality rate will kill over 1.3M people. The flu infects ~10% of the population, and we achieve some herd immunity through vaccinations. What’s stopping this thing from infecting 4-6x that many people in a population with zero natural immunity? We are, that’s it.

It’s bad. No question.
But how we FEEL about is truly...truly malleable, which is an interesting thought to me.

I am not suggesting one or the other perspective. It’s just interesting to me how perspectives can be all over the place—each with their own legitimate statistical justifications.
I imagine there will be huge studies that are very telling about where the virus did the most damage per capita pre and post shut down.
 

Markuson

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Right, the three categories of lie are lies, damn lies, and statistics, per Mark Twain, but there’s a way to normalize data to show compelling and non-deceptive trends, too. What you initially did (I’m sure unintentionally) is an example of something that skews the data. Talking about mortality rates outside the context of infection rates ignores fully half the equation. You know, 100M x .001 is the same as 10M x .01, 100k. The first number matters. Even regionally, it’s a scary situation here. If you were just pointing out we’re doing better than most on mortality rate, I’d say that’s not going to matter if everyone gets infected. I also don’t think you need Italy’s data to scare people. I think South Korea‘a mortality rate should scare people. They’ve tested enough to believe it’s probably pretty accurate, and if we let it infect 40% of the population here then south Korea’s mortality rate will kill over 1.3M people. The flu infects ~10% of the population, and we achieve some herd immunity through vaccinations. What’s stopping this thing from infecting 4-6x that many people in a population with zero natural immunity? We are, that’s it.



I imagine there will be huge studies that are very telling about where the virus did the most damage per capita pre and post shut down.
I have zero argument here.
Fear is justified.
Encouragement is justified.
I am suggesting neither blame nor credit. Just saying that there is room for all perspectives and I hope we’ll all remember that as we respond.
That’s not directed at you, nor anyone in particular. Just mentioning that we are all subject to a zillion factors that change how we react.
 

TheGrrrrr

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As of March 30, the Us has a nearly identical mortality rate to Sough Korea:

Columns are known infections...deaths...and mortality %
View attachment 2254416

For me, there is no country I’d rather be in than the US right now and I think statistics ratios will start to show that more and more as this thing plays out. But who k owe. We’ll see... Hoping for the best, but remembering the potential worst.

See full list here:
I would expect our mortality rate to jump significantly. South Korea didn't have their healthcare system overrun. Neither have we for the time being. Once we run out of ventilators or can't get them where they are needed, or have a shortage of staff to admit and treat the patients, we will start to see Italy numbers. I'm happy that our functioning healthcare system is achieving results similar to South Korea's functioning healthcare system. I just don't think that will hold once our healthcare system is no longer functioning... ie. rationing care, choosing who lives and who dies due to ventilator/staff shortages. Many, many people will die that could have been saved with basic treatment, only this time someone might notice since for once, it won't just be people who can't afford insurance doing the dying.
 
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