Based on what metric exactly?
Japanese V35A-FTS Bearing Issues (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter xeuxaz
- Start date
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Are you sure? I have been following the market and started to see a pretty good gap between the 2022 LXs and 2023 up. The 22s are getting close to the mid $80ks depending on mileage (even saw a tester the other day for $79k), while the 23s are all holding mid $90ks to $100ks sometimes with much more miles than some 22s. The majority of 22s are obvious dumps from previous owners afraid of the engine replacement. The dealers that bought those are clearly trying to hold their values close to the 23s, but when people start to pass them for the 23s, the 22s will pile and dealers will have to lower asking prices even more.
Mid $80k 22's? Not in my area. A simple autotrader nationwide search shows the majority of 22s are still in the $90s with a few around $89k.
Look at this:
and this
Like I said, the dealers will try to hold the asking high but eventually will lower these $90k ones you are seeing when people pass them for the 23s that in theory do not have engine issues or recalls. Several 23s in the mid $90ks. Why would I pay mid $90k for a 22 with open recall, if i can pay the same for a clean 23?
First one yanked out. This is getting the long block I posted earlier.
Why didn't they clean up the shop and why are the parts stored on the floor?
lol. Have you seen the “rebuild in dealer” videos?
The engines will be ordered one at a time as needed once a customer comes in for an engine. Dealers will not be stocking long block assemblies.
TMMAL will be manufacturing them in lots for parts depots to have on hand but not hundreds or thousands of them. Each depot will receive allotments based on sales numbers for given PMAs of each PDC.
A few are trickling out for testing purposes, process improvement exercises, and developing best practices at each dealership based on which technician(s) will be swapping the engines.
The rollout will be after Thanksgiving en masse.
Why would anyone with a perfectly functioning engine voluntarily take it in to get swapped? As an owner you'd obviously be incentivized to wait as long as possible under the recall fix period limitations. In other words, I'd rather get my "flawed" engine replaced after I put 100k+ miles on it, essentially making my 100k+ mile truck "like new" again when it receives a brand new (FREE) engine, versus swapping it right now with say 20k miles on it.
This is absolutely why Toyota is going to replace every single one, no questions asked.
The market data is showing that most people **are not** going to have the engines swapped out because all is well.
That’s why the engine swap recall will be done over a very long period of time…. Years. Pretty much in line with the 3VZ-FE HG recall in the early to mid 1990’s: that recall was done over an entire decade with well over 500K engines exhibiting HG failure over many, many, many years.
The information available from a manufacturing POV is pointing to the fact that Toyota does not actually know the total number of affected power plants from two different engine manufacturing facilities; They just know the beginning serial number of shïtty engine #1 and ending serial number of shìtty engine number 100,xxxx. Otherwise, it’s black box theory.
Ergo, just replace them all as needed.
I mean, it’s kinda a smart position to take especially considering the complexity of the engine family. These aren’t 3VZ-FE engines.
$300-500 million amortized over a decade for a recall is peanuts for Toyota.
Now that customers will be taken care of through long block replacements, I'm interested in hearing the technician efficiency stories on these jobs come out through the grapevine. I bet some of these guys will get a system down and be well over 200%+ efficient vs. warranty time. Maybe even better than the 01-04 Tacoma frames that paid 60 hours and teams of guys were building homemade tools/frame jigs to knock the time down below 20 hours and still complete the job with quality. Maybe not so much at the Lexus stores, but definitely at the big T dealers.
That's still the (interesting) missing piece. How will the replacements be rolled out / scheduled? I'd assume Toyota or the dealership can't force an owner to take their "affected" (but perfectly functioning) truck in for the swap. But, they also must accommodate low risk tolerant owners who want the engine swapped immediately as a preventative.
So if an owner is willing to risk actual failure (which is quite low based on available information) they can just wait to get their engine swapped until either:
a) the engine blows on the highway
b) the recall fix period expires - which as you say could be 10 years from now
c) an unrelated engine issue pops up out of warranty (like a valley plate leak on a 5.7) - and rather than pay money to fix that, do the free engine swap at that point instead
IMO it isn't really a bad place to be as an owner of these affected vehicles. It's like you have a "Get a free engine" card, and you can decide to play that card whenever you want.
If we were to know what to look for on the Blackstone analysis it would be ideal to hold out for option "a" - unfortunately it's been so much speculation and no confirmation yet. Lots of folks speculated that Silver was the indicator, but no strong correlation.
bjowett
Supporting Vendor
Hopefully this is a nothing burger.
That would be wild... 
