2024 GX/Prado Release and Discussion (3 Viewers)

[M1911]

The take rate for MT Wranglers is around 10%. Bronco was about 15% for the first year, but I’d expect is less after the early adopter enthusiasts got their deliveries.
Personally, I don’t understand the love affair with MT, but I’m just one man. We will all know in due time.

I learned to drive in 1976. I only drove manual transmission cars until I bought my ‘03 4Runner. When driving off-road, I much prefer an automatic transmission. It is simply much easier to use a little left foot braking to control speed while easing over an obstacle.

 

[M1911]

I'm not argueing the likelyhood is very very low

What I am argueing is that the demand IS there

Wrangler offers a MT across a bunch of different trims
Bronco does the same

Toyota on the other hand limits MT in the Taco for example to just a few configuations and they're all higher priced.....Toyota has done this for about a decade......they make it difficult to find a model that offers it and even more difficult to find one that is avail

So Toyota and the MT is something of a self fulfilling prophesy.....they claim that sales of MT are very low while ignoring the fact that they make it almost impossible to buy one.

But ford and jeep seems to refute this.

So does Subaru with the WRX, VW with the GTI etc.....

The truth seems to be that Toyota doesnt want to sell vehicles with MT's for the same reason they dont want to sell vehicles with the choice of multiple engines....complexity and cost to stock parts/etc

Remember.....the american market has demonstrated a strong desire for the wrangler/bronco form factor optioned the way ford and jeep are offering them

Toyota only has to bring a vehicle to the american market that satisfies what americans want.....rather than what toyota wishes to sell.

If Toyota was going to sell what market demand is clamoring for then they would offer a 73 clone removeable hard top landcruiser (channelling the 40 legacy) and a 4 door prado/70 esque model that channels the 60 series landcruiser

But lets be honest....toyota is almost certain to ignore market demand in the US and instead bring in a "Landcruiser" that is a slightly scaled down Lexus that will almost certainly sell numbers that rival the last couple years the LC was in the US before they dropped the offering.....then they will wring their hands and declare that there just isnt demand for a "Land Cruiser" in the US

Toyota is only going to selling a few thousand Land Cruiser Prado per year in the US. At that rate, there is simply no way it is economical for them to federalize multiple transmissions.

Suppose they sell 10,000 Oradosnper year in the US. The most manual transmission Prado they sell would be 500 to 1000. Toyota would have to spend tens of millions of dollars to crash test, emissions test, and fuel economy test those 500 to 1000 Prados. 500 to 1000 vehicles simply isn’t enough volume to amortize the testing cost.

 

[jayp2]

A quick web search shows that take rates for the manual Bronco and Wrangler are only around 15%.

Pitting Subi, Golf, and other small performance/ hot hatch drivers cars to 4x4 trucks and SUV’s is apples to oranges. Two different types of vehicles in spirit and mission. Besides, Toyota has the GR86 and Corolla for those customers (both offered with manuals)

Why would a company alienate 15% of buyers when they could otherwise make happy customers

Happy customers are repeat customers

As I pointed out previously, while Toyota technically "offers" a MT in limited taco trims and some Corrola's.....finding one borders on the unpossible.

MT is also a feature that is more often than not a deal breaker for a buyer.

Dodge sold tons of 6.7 cummins 2500/3500's because it was the only truck offered with a MT

How many 40's were sold in the US with Auto's?....yes...this is a trick question...

This is all without even touching the merits of a MT over an Auto....

I have few doubts that Toyota will choose to NOT offer a MT......but that would be a mistake

 

[jayp2]

Toyota is only going to selling a few thousand Land Cruiser Prado per year in the US. At that rate, there is simply no way it is economical for them to federalize multiple transmissions.

Suppose they sell 10,000 Oradosnper year in the US. The most manual transmission Prado they sell would be 500 to 1000. Toyota would have to spend tens of millions of dollars to crash test, emissions test, and fuel economy test those 500 to 1000 Prados. 500 to 1000 vehicles simply isn’t enough volume to amortize the testing cost.

If Toyota only sells a few thousand units in the US thats 100% because Toyota chooses to 1. Not offer sufficient units for sale and 2. fail to offer features their competitors are happily selling to customers that want them

This is why LC sales completely/utterly tanked and Toyota pulled the model a few years ago......they were trying to sell a vehicle that customers didnt want or for which there was an alternative offered by a competitor that was better suited to theirs wants/needs

Supply and Demand 101

 

[Hiluxforever]

Low take rate manual transmissions are usually pretty craptastic in at least one facet from my own experience with low take rate stick shifts in Japanese cars. Could end up with a bum clutch or some other problem part

 

[jayp2]

Low take rate manual transmissions are usually pretty craptastic in at least one facet from my own experience with low take rate stick shifts in Japanese cars. Could end up with a bum clutch or some other problem part

Which MT that Toyota has offered in a truck has sucked?

I've got over a million miles logged on various toyota 4x4 MT's and never once had an issue.

Multiple toyota truck/taco varients that each went over 300k...one was even on original clutch

 

[M1911]

Why would a company alienate 15% of buyers when they could otherwise make happy customers

Happy customers are repeat customers

As I pointed out previously, while Toyota technically "offers" a MT in limited taco trims and some Corrola's.....finding one borders on the unpossible.

MT is also a feature that is more often than not a deal breaker for a buyer.

Dodge sold tons of 6.7 cummins 2500/3500's because it was the only truck offered with a MT

How many 40's were sold in the US with Auto's?....yes...this is a trick question...

This is all without even touching the merits of a MT over an Auto....

I have few doubts that Toyota will choose to NOT offer a MT......but that would be a mistake

Manual transmissions in medium sized pickup trucks are so overwhelmingly popular that the Ford Ranger is only available with an automatic transmission. The Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon are also only offered with an automatic transmission. The Nissan Frontier is only offered with an automatic transmission. The Honda Ridgeline is only offered with an automatic transmission.

People are so convinced that they know better than Toyota product planners. Here is the reality: Toyota product planners have far more data than we do, about historical sales data, take rates, and buyer preferences, along with data about comparative production and warranty costs. The reality is that no, you don’t know better than Toyota product planners.

Automotive enthusiasts are convinced that if automakers just make what we want that they would sell thousands of units. But the reality is that we are a tiny portion of the market and are not representative of the average buyer.

 

[jayp2]

Manual transmissions in medium sized pickup trucks are so overwhelmingly popular that the Ford Ranger is only available with an automatic transmission. The Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon are also only offered with an automatic transmission. The Nissan Frontier is only offered with an automatic transmission. The Honda Ridgeline is only offered with an automatic transmission.

People are so convinced that they know better than Toyota product planners. Here is the reality: Toyota product planners have far more data than we do, about historical sales data, take rates, and buyer preferences, along with data about comparative production and warranty costs. The reality is that no, you don’t know better than Toyota product planners.

Automotive enthusiasts are convinced that if automakers just make what we want that they would sell thousands of units. But the reality is that we are a tiny portion of the market and are not representative of the average buyer.

The primary reason they restrict options is to simplify manufacturing processes and parts management for repair not to mention tech training/etc

Every time someone gets into one of my MT vehicles, whether its the tire place or a friend/aquiantance.....they make a comment like "How did you find a MT or I just bought this vehicle and couldnt find it with an MT.

Lets stop pretending that demand isnt there.....it is...it may not be 50% of sales but its been demonstrated to be more than 10% where offerered on a few 4x4's and in vehicles like GTI and WRX its pushing 50% of sales....

Manufacturers are choosing not to offer the options people want

 

[UZJ100LC]

Toyota simply will not sell a 4Runner or LC Prado with a manual transmission in the US. The take rate on manual transmissions for the Toyota Tacoma is 5%. The take rate for a manual transmission on a 4Runner or LC Prado would be even less. Sales volume for the 4Runner is about 1/2 of the Taco and the sales volume for the LC Prado is going to be tiny. The cost to federalize a vehicle + drivetrain (emissions, fuel economy, and crash testing) is the same whether you sell 200,000 or 2,000, but the per vehicle cost is obviously inversely proportional to the sales volume. If you want a manual transmission off-road Toyota, your choice will be the Taco.

is the take rate for manual Tacos 5% or is it the case that the only 5% of Tacos made are MT? Cause from what I have noticed, it is not like the MT Tacos are just sitting on a lot somewhere. They are sold before they hit the lot like any other Toyota 4x4.

 

[M1911]

Lets stop pretending that demand isnt there.....it is...it may not be 50% of sales but its been demonstrated to be more than 10% where offerered on a few 4x4's and in vehicles like GTI and WRX its pushing 50% of sales....

Manufacturers are choosing not to offer the options people want

Midsize trucks are not a GTI or WRX. Your assertion that the fact that the manual transmission take rate is high in the GTI and WRX and therefore the demand would be high in midsize pickups is farcical — pickup buyers are not hot hatch buyers. And, yes, I owned a 2000 GTI with a manual transmission.

If the demand for manual transmission midsize pickups and SUVs was as high as you claim it is, then Ford, GM, and Nissan would build them. But they don’t. So we know that the demand is quite low.

You want a manual transmission so you think many other buyers also want them. But the reality is that very few want a manual transmission. The product planners know more than you do.

 

[M1911]

is the take rate for manual Tacos 5% or is it the case that the only 5% of Tacos made are MT? Cause from what I have noticed, it is not like the MT Tacos are just sitting on a lot somewhere. They are sold before they hit the lot like any other Toyota 4x4.

If the demand was higher, Toyota would build more of them.

 

[jayp2]

Midsize trucks are not a GTI or WRX. Your assertion that the fact that the manual transmission take rate is high in the GTI and WRX and therefore the demand would be high in midsize pickups is farcical — pickup buyers are not hot hatch buyers. And, yes, I owned a 2000 GTI with a manual transmission.

If the demand for manual transmission midsize pickups and SUVs was as high as you claim it is, then Ford, GM, and Nissan would build them. But they don’t. So we know that the demand is quite low.

You want a manual transmission so you think many other buyers also want them. But the reality is that very few want a manual transmission. The product planners know more than you do.

As per FJ60LC.....proof is in the pudding.....the MT versions that are offered aint sitting on the lot......they're unobtanium because people snatch them up...

In other news Jeep is listening to customers

2024 Jeep Wrangler and Wrangler 4xe Get Targeted Upgrades

Wider 4xe availability and a sun-resistant 12.3-inch touchscreen make the 2024 Wrangler more compelling.

www.caranddriver.com

This is and always has been Toyota's achilles heel.....they dont listen to customers.

If Toyota were to bring into the US a 73 and a 76 ish wheelbase variant that competed with Jeep/Bronco they would rock the market.....because thats what consumers have demonstrated they want....so much so that Bronco is sold out for the year.

 

[UZJ100LC]

If the demand was higher, Toyota would build more of them.

perhaps this may be the case but we don't know.

I was just pointing out that you saying the take rate is low at 5% even though they only make 5% as MT is a bit of a misleading claim. You were using this stat to imply low demand, but actually it just shows low supply.

 

[ThRiLlGmYr]

The primary reason they restrict options is to simplify manufacturing processes and parts management for repair not to mention tech training/etc

So they restrict options because it is smart business. It is simple math really. Toyota calculates all the costs of selling a feature and then weighs it against the lost sales if it does not offer it. They are a business, arguably one of the best at what they do. If they don't want to sell it to you it is because they don't think it is worth it. Why else wouldn't they do it? Because they HATE you personally?

 

[jayp2]

So they restrict options because it is smart business. It is simple math really. Toyota calculates all the costs of selling a feature and then weighs it against the lost sales if it does not offer it. They are a business, arguably one of the best at what they do. If they don't want to sell it to you it is because they don't think it is worth it. Why else wouldn't they do it? Because they HATE you personally?

If there were a ton of taco's with MT's sitting on the lot unsold your argument would hold water

 

[TexasFunRunner]

Toyota is only going to selling a few thousand Land Cruiser Prado per year in the US. At that rate, there is simply no way it is economical for them to federalize multiple transmissions.

Where did you hear or what are you basing your "a few thousand Land Cruiser Prado per year in the US" on?

Looking at the last five years sales numbers Toyota has sold about ~130K 4Runners per year.

I've heard through the Plano grapevine they expect to sell about 25% - 30% of that number. So that would be about ~35K - ~40K Land Cruisers per year sold in the US.

 

[shelby95]

If there were a ton of taco's with MT's sitting on the lot unsold your argument would hold water

You don’t think Toyota has considered this and made, likely the correct, assumption that here would be MTs sitting unsold on the lot.
To quote Navin Johnson, “It’s a profit deal!”

 

[jayp2]

Where did you hear or what are you basing your "a few thousand Land Cruiser Prado per year in the US" on?

Looking at the last five years sales numbers Toyota has sold about ~130K 4Runners per year.

I've heard through the Plano grapevine they expect to sell about 25% - 30% of that number. So that would be about ~35K - ~40K Land Cruisers per year sold in the US.

I had previously posted data showing sales of LC vs Bronco's in the 70's and 80's since this was being toted as a "Reboot" of the LC tradition

That data showed that Toyota sold 2 LC's for every 3 Bronco sales (on average).

There's every reason to believe that a similarly positioned/equipped LC Reboot model would sell in excess of 40k units based on Bronco and Wrangler sales numbers.

Bronco has sold over 100k units on average every year since re-introduction

Dodge has been selling in excess of 11k wranglers every MONTH for YEARS

Jeep Wrangler Sales Figures

Automotive Sales Data and Statistics

www.goodcarbadcar.net

 

[jayp2]

You don’t think Toyota has considered this and made, likely the correct, assumption that here would be MTs sitting unsold on the lot.
To quote Navin Johnson, “It’s a profit deal!”

Given Toyota's record of failing utterly and completely to listen to customers?

No....I dont think they've considered let alone prioritized customer demand.

 

[UZJ100LC]

is it not strange that Toyota would put R&D into the MT in the new gen Tacoma, with its anti-stall features and such...and then only put it in the Tacoma in limited numbers? Why not have the same drivetrain placed into a LC trim as well?