I am curious to see if we will get 1GR 250 Prados in any markets on certain models.
Some markets do want an option for naturally aspirated reliable engines and the 1GR could have some life for another few years especially since its still available on the 300.
I can see the dual vvti 1GR eventually being discontinued from the 300 and Prado in a few years having turbo only lineups but you also have the single vvti 1GR still being produced for the 70 and I don't see what else could replace that for a vehicle like the 70.
Emission regulations are getting stricter in the Middle East so it'll depend on how long they can keep the old engined certified.
I think we'll see some GR version of the Prado globally. I was a bit surprised to see it carry on in the LC300, but since it's in the LC300 - it's a natural extension to also put it in the Prado and probably continue to make it available in the LC70 lineup. And Toyota is going to carry on producing the 2GR for the TX that was a big surprise to me - in a good way. It's a great engine to pair with the hybrid system. The 1GR may be Toyota's most reliable engine ever. And it's pretty fuel efficient in its comfort zone around 100hp output or less.. So, it's a pretty great engine for everywhere that doesn't require high cruising speeds for long distances. The biggest reason I would see it being dropped is if those markets end up just going all diesel. In most of the places the 1GR is sold, the diesel offerings are so much more popular and diesel fuel is easier to find so it becomes pretty skewed away from gasoline in general.
I don't think the 1GR is powerful enough to really work well in the USA. And it's not really peak power - it's the lack of efficiency at higher power output that's more accurately the problem. At high altitude it just doesn't have enough power for comfortable highway speeds and it ends up well out of its efficiency range. But if it were combined with the right hybrid - it could be pretty great. I just don't think they'll do it for the North America market because of the EPA test cycle favoritism of the small turbo engines.
For the USA - I'd bet that the LC250 will end up as a turbo4 hybrid very similar to the Tacoma hybrid. I think the Tacoma Trailhunter crossed with a GX550 is very close to what the LC250 will be. If we took a GX550, tightened up the plastics to improve the angles, added 1-2 inches of ride height and bypass shocks, add a front locker, and strip down the interior to a more base model trim - I think that's what the LC250 ends up as. If it can drop 300lbs over the GX,
A turbo v8 engine wouldn't cost materially more than a turbo 6 to manufacture. But there's not a chassis and drivetrain that's capable of handling the power in the Toyota family. Supposedly Toyota was developing or had developed an HD chassis for the Tundra and Sequoia that would have the Turbo v8 that Toyota patented 5 or so years ago. But Toyota pulled the plug on that program and opted to drop the Tundra and Sequoia onto the lighter duty GA-F platform in conjunction with the smaller turbo v6. The reasoning was supposedly because of the success of Tesla and a recognition that the future was trending that direction and it didn't make sense to tool up for an HD chassis that would have a relatively short lifespan. Even the current Tundra is unlikely to be viable in 10 years. It's probably an interim product to bridge a gap to a next gen truck that's more electrified. As is the GX550. If Lexus keeps its word on all Lexus models being EVs by 2030 - it'll only be produced for 6-7 years as a Lexus.