2024 GX/Prado Release and Discussion (4 Viewers)

[Jetboy]

Toyota didn't used to be this way. It historically did offer options for enthusiasts. It wasn't that long ago that Toyota sold a 4Runner that was faster than the fastest Porsche Cayenne. Consider how outrageous that sounds today. A 4Runner that would outrun a Cayenne Turbo GT? They probably won't even offer a TTV6 now. The fun left the company a while ago. Not sure if it's coming back. They did a lot of interesting stuff on the new Tacoma - but they neutered it with the powertrain. It's not even close to what Ford will offer in the Ranger. The Raptor isn't even Ford's top off-road halo model. Ford also builds the Bronco DR that's a different league above the Raptor models.

Toyota could have just put a 4.6 v8 with a 10AT in the old 4Runner and satisfied a lot of buyers with parts that are already sitting in crates on the same damn assembly line. Or, just a base model LC200 for $50k. It didn't have to be a Bronco DR. I hope the next gen at least moves the needle on the fun factor back in the right direction. The market is there. Will Toyota do it? Not sure. Pretty good chance it'll be 270hp 4cyl in a 5k lb SUV. If it is - well, Ford will keep selling a lot of Broncos and Rangers.

 

[TexasFunRunner]

I've wondered if Toyota underestimated LC sales at 25% - 30% of 4Runner sales. I started the below calculations to show where I thought the underestimation was, I got a surprise.

Based on this Bronco link, Ford is selling 20% Badlands and 15% Wildtrak, so I'll call that 35% are "Hardcore" models.

Latest Bronco Production Key Commodity Constraints (6/26/2023)

www.bronco6g.com

Based on ~100K annual Bronco sales, 35% = ~35K "Hardcore" models

Ford Bronco Sales Figures

Ford Bronco monthly, quarterly, and yearly sales and statistics in the United States. Including data and interactive charts for the latest model year .

carfigures.com

Based on my post:

Looking at the last five years sales numbers Toyota has sold about ~130K 4Runners per year.

I've heard through the Plano grapevine they expect to sell about 25% - 30% of that number. So that would be about ~35K - ~40K Land Cruisers per year sold in the US.

At first I thought maybe Toyota could sell half as many Bronco "Hardcore" models but with the above math it looks like they would match it, ~35K Land Cruisers.

I did the above calculations, at first thinking how far off Toyota's projections were. But I just convinced myself Toyota is on the right track, LOL.

If that still seems low, perhaps Toyota is assuming the lower dollar model sales, aka, less than "Hardcore" models, would go to the 4Runner.

 

[TexasFunRunner]

is it not strange that Toyota would put R&D into the MT in the new gen Tacoma, with its anti-stall features and such...and then only put it in the Tacoma in limited numbers? Why not have the same drivetrain placed into a LC trim as well?

Agreed, if we can find out how much torque the Tacoma manual trans can take and how much the TTV6 torque is, then we would know if a MT in the LC is realistic.

@Jetboy, these types of estimates seem right up your alley, what do you think?

 

[Hiluxforever]

Which MT that Toyota has offered in a truck has sucked?

I've got over a million miles logged on various toyota 4x4 MT's and never once had an issue.

Multiple toyota truck/taco varients that each went over 300k...one was even on original clutch

For toyota it was the L51 5 speed, the 2nd gen Acura Legend had short cluth life with some different issues.

Most toyota trucks sold 100s of thousands of stick shifts, though, so not really a valid comparison. I have had more than a few myself. My first tacoma had a bad transmission from the factory

 

[LostTexan]

As per FJ60LC.....proof is in the pudding.....the MT versions that are offered aint sitting on the lot......they're unobtanium because people snatch them up...

In other news Jeep is listening to customers

2024 Jeep Wrangler and Wrangler 4xe Get Targeted Upgrades

Wider 4xe availability and a sun-resistant 12.3-inch touchscreen make the 2024 Wrangler more compelling.

www.caranddriver.com

This is and always has been Toyota's achilles heel.....they dont listen to customers.

If Toyota were to bring into the US a 73 and a 76 ish wheelbase variant that competed with Jeep/Bronco they would rock the market.....because thats what consumers have demonstrated they want....so much so that Bronco is sold out for the year.

The Bronco is also “sold out” partly because Ford has screwed up every part of the launch and they’re playing catch up. My buddy just got his that he ordered in October 2020. You’d think they’d have the manufacturing part down, but their build quality sucks.

 

[ThRiLlGmYr]

If there were a ton of taco's with MT's sitting on the lot unsold your argument would hold water

Where are these tons of ANY Taco's sitting on lots unsold? When I tried to buy a Tacoma last year I never did get an allocation and after six months I gave up and bought my LX.

But you guys win. I am not going to argue any more. You guys are right. Toyota would make a fortune selling the trucks you want. They clearly are not stupid and the market is clearly there. They just hate YOU so much that they are never going to do it. Good job.

I even made a logical diagram.

Smart companies build what the Market wants.
The Market wants enter your personal preferences here. (e.g. Triple locked, V-8 twin turbo, soft top, 37" Land Cruiser).
Toyota is a smart company
Therefore Toyota will build what the market wants (but it won't because Toyota hates you.)

 

[jayp2]

Where are these tons of ANY Taco's sitting on lots unsold? When I tried to buy a Tacoma last year I never did get an allocation and after six months I gave up and bought my LX.

But you guys win. I am not going to argue any more. You guys are right. Toyota would make a fortune selling the trucks you want. They clearly are not stupid and the market is clearly there. They just hate YOU so much that they are never going to do it. Good job.

I even made a logical diagram.

Smart companies build what the Market wants.
The Market wants enter your personal preferences here. (e.g. Triple locked, V-8 twin turbo, soft top, 37" Land Cruiser).
Toyota is a smart company
Therefore Toyota will build what the market wants (but it won't because Toyota hates you.)

If that were true then Toyota would have produced a LC that people wanted and that sold instead of sales being so abysmal that they pulled the line from the US entirely

 

[Docyota]

I want everyone to know that I love Toyotas, hate Toyota admin, and will die driving my Toyotas, and be buried in my Tacoma. And if Toyota ever makes my personal, perfectly designed land cruiser, that will confirm that I'm living in the new heavens and the new earth.

In all seriousness, you all do know it is possible to discuss things without taking a difference in opinion as a personal insult, right?

 

[ThRiLlGmYr]

I want everyone to know that I love Toyotas, hate Toyota admin, and will die driving my Toyotas, and be buried in my Tacoma. And if Toyota ever makes my personal, perfectly designed land cruiser, that will confirm that I'm living in the new heavens and the new earth.

In all seriousness, you all do know it is possible to discuss things without taking a difference in opinion as a personal insult, right?

It isn't a personal insult. It is a logical reality. If you can think of a fourth option let me know. Until then either 1. Toyota doesn't think the economics are there. 2. Toyota is incompetent. 3. Toyota won't give you want you want out of spite.

 

[jayp2]

It isn't a personal insult. It is a logical reality. If you can think of a fourth option let me know. Until then either 1. Toyota doesn't think the economics are there. 2. Toyota is incompetent. 3. Toyota won't give you want you want out of spite.

ROFL

Logical reality like the poster that asserted that if Toyota brought a 70 series to the US that they would sell NONE of them?

 

[ThRiLlGmYr]

ROFL

Logical reality like the poster that asserted that if Toyota brought a 70 series to the US that they would sell NONE of them?

I never said they would sell none, but Toyota clearly:

1. doesn't think the economics are there.
2. is incompetent.
3. won't give you want you want out of spite.

What is option 4?

 

[jayp2]

I never said they would sell none, but Toyota clearly:

1. doesn't think the economics are there.
2. is incompetent.
3. won't give you want you want out of spite.

What is option 4?

If the above were true and toyota marketing/admin always covers their bases/makes great decisions then explain how they bolluxed the LC soooooo badly in the US that they pulled it from the US entirely?

Jeep sells over 1100 units every month and has for YEARS
Ford has sold ~250,000 bronco's since its re-launch

If thats not a target rich environment to offer a Toyota competitor (ie "FJ73" NOT a rolling living room) well.....then.....Toyota deserves to fail on this one

 

[cruiserdan]

Toyota doesn't need a target-rich environment. They sell every unit of their collective production capacity and they have back-logs.

 

[Jetboy]

I don't have much insight into the taco MT take rate in the USA. What I know anecdotally is that we really don't have any idea what the demand is due to Toyota's vehicle allocation system. I know one person who bought a 3rd gen Tacoma with an MT and they said that no dealers in their entire state were willing to request allocation for one because if he didn't buy it, they didn't want it. So, he ended up expanding the search and found a dealer in another state hundreds of miles away that was wiling to request allocation with a large non-refundable deposit.

That generally tells me that the take rate is below what the market would sell if they were generally available or even if Toyota had an actual direct order system where customers could order a vehicle like you can a Tesla or Ford vehicle. My intuition is that the take rate would still be pretty low though. Unless Toyota was also willing to combine the MT with better gearing in the transfer case or something similar. The crawl ratio in the current MT isn't very good and it's not nearly as reliable as an AT for spending time in the dirt for that reason. To go slow enough on the technical stuff with bigger tires, you end up burning the clutch a lot. With an MT, the crawl ratio needs to be around 70:1 minimum, but really it should target about 100:1, and with 35s or 37s - I think around 120:1 is even better. Bronco with the MT is 94:1. Wrangler is 100:1. Current MT taco is only 44:1. That's perfectly fine for fire roads. Not for technical trails. . One solution is to have a big HD clutch that can handle a lot of slip and heat. But that's also probably not in the cards. So, I probably wouldn't opt for a MT in a LC or 4Runner unless I was going to put double cases in it or an aftermarket low range option is available.

 

[LostTexan]

If the above were true and toyota marketing/admin always covers their bases/makes great decisions then explain how they bolluxed the LC soooooo badly in the US that they pulled it from the US entirely?

Jeep sells over 1100 units every month and has for YEARS
Ford has sold ~250,000 bronco's since its re-launch

If thats not a target rich environment to offer a Toyota competitor (ie "FJ73" NOT a rolling living room) well.....then.....Toyota deserves to fail on this one

I’m of the opinion that Toyota’s biggest mistake with the LC was making it too fancy (read expensive). But if they stripped it down it would’ve basically been the Sequoia (to an average buyer). I don’t think the demographic that was dropping $100k on an SUV wanted a Toyota badge. They wanted Lexus, or Yukon Denali, or Escalade. It’s precisely the reason I would’ve gone for a Land Cruiser. Fantastic SUV without the snob factor of similarly priced options.
There is much pent up demand in the market for something that only Wranglers and Broncos fill at the moment. I wouldn’t buy either of those though. Ford’s rollout of the Bronco has pissed me off so bad that I want to sell my ‘75… Anyway, Nissan should have a new Xterra in the mix, Toyota should throw down a Land Cruiser that’s in that category and not try to compete for the luxury crowd. Leave that to the Lexus badge.

 

[M1911]

Where did you hear or what are you basing your "a few thousand Land Cruiser Prado per year in the US" on?

Looking at the last five years sales numbers Toyota has sold about ~130K 4Runners per year.

I've heard through the Plano grapevine they expect to sell about 25% - 30% of that number. So that would be about ~35K - ~40K Land Cruisers per year sold in the US.

OK, so they sell 40,000 a year. 10% of 40,000 is 4,000. The cost to federalize a manual transmission (crash test, fuel economy test, emissions test) would be prohibitive for sales of 4,000 per year.

Toyota is going to look at this as a business decision — how much will it cost, how many more sales will it drive, and in the end will it make money or lose money? Toyota, and other manufacturers, have access to sales data and the costs and for the most part have determined that selling manual transmissions won‘t make money.

 

[M1911]

is it not strange that Toyota would put R&D into the MT in the new gen Tacoma, with its anti-stall features and such...and then only put it in the Tacoma in limited numbers? Why not have the same drivetrain placed into a LC trim as well?

No, it’s not strange.

The cost isn’t just the engineering to design the transmission. Manufacturers need to crash test, emissions test, and fuel economy test each drivetrain variation for a vehicle. The Taco sold over 200,000 vehicles in 2022. With that much volume, Toyota can amortize the testing cost over enough vehicles to make it worthwhile to spend the money to federalize the Taco with a manual transmission.

But the Prado won’t sell in those numbers. The testing cost will be the same, but instead of amortizing the testing cost over 200,000+ vehicles, they would have to amortime that cost over 5,000 to 40,000 Prados (planned quantities depend upon who you talk to).

The higher the volume of sales, the more drivetrain options the manufacturer can economically support. At smaller volumes, they can only economically support a single drivetrain (unless it is a very high priced vehicle).

It is simple math. If the testing costs $50,000,000 per vehicle-drivetrain and Taco sales are 200,000, then the testing cost per vehicle is $50M / 200,000 = $250. If Prado sales are 40,000 then the testing cost per vehicle is $50M / 40,000 = $1,250. Now do you see the problem?

 

[M1911]

Where are these tons of ANY Taco's sitting on lots unsold? When I tried to buy a Tacoma last year I never did get an allocation and after six months I gave up and bought my LX.

It’s not just Tacomas. Toyota isn’t limiting quantities because they want to eff with you. Toyota‘s supply chain is still completely screwed up from COVID. My local Toyota dealer doesn’t have more than 4 vehicles of any model. They’ve got 1 4Runner, 2 Sequoias, 4 Camrys, etc.

The current shortage of manual transmission Tacos on dealer lots is simply the same shortage effecting all of their models.

 

[M1911]

Some folks in this thread are like the car enthusiasts who all said that car manufacturers would sell a ton of brown, diesel, manual transmission station wagons if they would just build them.

 

[TexasFunRunner]

It is simple math. If the testing costs $50,000,000 per vehicle-drivetrain and Taco sales are 200,000, then the testing cost per vehicle is $50M / 200,000 = $250. If Prado sales are 40,000 then the testing cost per vehicle is $50M / 40,000 = $1,250. Now do you see the problem?

I agree with the premise of your argument but you saying that it costs $50M to test each model misses the mark. Official tests are paid for by either NHTSA or IIHS, which cost ~$10 million each year per agency for 90 to 125 tests annually (thats 90 to 125 models annually), or approximately $100K per vehicle. (see quotes and links below.)

Auto manufacturers may conduct their own development tests at labs such as Calspan Corporation. Each model requires approximately 9 tests total, if we are generous it may cost $50K-$100K per individual test (not model). If you failed a particular test during development you would retest that particular test, not all. So the cost to an auto manufacturer per model is on the order of $1M max per model or trim, not $50M.

I've worked in engineering product development and project management for my entire career, granted in a different industry, aerospace. However, aerospace testing far exceeds the costs of the automotive industry testing. If I ever had to give management an estimate for testing of $50M, my project would never be approved.

So updating your figures: If the testing costs $1M per vehicle-drivetrain and Taco sales are 200,000, then the testing cost per vehicle is $1M / 200,000 = $5. If Prado sales are 40,000 then the testing cost per vehicle is $1M / 40,000 = $25. Now do you see how the cost is reasonable?

NHTSA - 3 crash tests (frontal, side and rollover tests)

IIHS - 6 crash tests (Driver's-side small-overlap front, moderate-overlap front, side, roof-strength, passenger-side small-overlap test, and head-restraint crash tests)

"former NHTSA acting and deputy administrator, says that although the agency might leave some vehicles out, focusing on top-selling cars is a wise move, considering that it pays for the cars it crash-tests, which can cost $10 million each year. For the most part, the IIHS also pays for the cars it tests."

The federal agency now conducts 90 to 125 tests annually