Tough decision picking a 200 (1 Viewer)

[robo200]

I’m looking forward to buying my first 200 series LX. With a budget around 30k, I’ve found a couple of candidates, and would like some advice on the right pick:

1. 2011MY, 105K miles, no accident, $29K
2. 2011, 125K, no accident, $25K
3. 2015, 150k, no accident, $32K
4. 2014, 92K, Carfax frontal accident minor to moderate, $32K
5. 2014, 146k, Carfax accident hitting a stationary object, $28K, water pump, belt and radiator replaced by an Indy shop.

All are within reasonable distances for inspection in person as I’m on a one-way roadtrip, passing vehicles 1-5 from Midwest to Northeast, but since it’s one way, I won’t make a return trip to buy one that I rejected earlier, and buying an earlier one precludes later choices. Vehicle #5 is near my destination and I can take my time. All vehicles have been registered in Midwest to Northeast, i.e. rust belt for the most part, except #2 spent 2 years down south.

Maintenance records are neither here nor there, with #1 seems most complete and most jobs done at Lexus dealerships, but no major repairs have been done.

I’m a fairly capable weekend mechanic, but would rather not do long, heavy works involving lifting heavy under the car sitting on jack stands.

The vehicle will see most city driving for the next few years but I probably will dip my toes in light camping later.

The difficulty I have, is how to price in mileage vs. model year, and accident of unknown details.

 

[INTP]

Get the one with the cold box and Levinson stereo

 

[Heckraiser]

Wow, those all seem like pretty fantastic deals. I'm guessing they're all rusty underneath Your one-way road trip is an interesting problem. My choice would be to get the least rusty one since rust will eventually destroy the AHC. But hard to make a call on which one is the least rusty if there's no going back

 

[kcjaz]

I just recently did this and weighted mileage, MY and cost. I got lots of input when I asked essentially the same question. Most people here seem to say get the newest MY, lowest miles, best condition you can afford. That certainly makes sense as a broad general rule but general rules don't always apply to specific situations. For your use case and level of desire to DYI wrench, the general rule is probably good.

Evaluating mileage in terms of price is a mathematical exercise that can be done but IMO, it is not as relevant for a 200 as it is for cars in general. Some folks also factor in resale value. If your a buy it, run it for 50K and sell it kinda guy (nothing wrong with that) then the general rule applies and the general market value of mileage applies. Here is a comp valuation I had on a recent insurance claim for my 2013 LC. It shows what the insurance co thinks the market value of mileage.

If your a keep it forever guy, the $$$ value of mileage doesn't matter. What matters is the actual condition of the vehicle. Most people equate miles with condition and vehicle life is often thought of miles but a properly maintained 200 has a good chance of getting up to 300 or 400K miles. So, a 150K mile rig could be a lot better than a 90K rig owned by an idiot or a "run it a while and dump it" guy.

Accidents are difficult to evaluate without knowing exactly what happened and how it was repaired. For me, accidents don't DQ a potential buy as I view them as a potentially pushing the price down and making it a better deal for me with my definition of value (I run the rig forever and resale doesn't matter to me). I've had a major accident (deer strike) that was a major repair and would show up on a car fax as a near total major accident to the front end. That would scare off many potential buyers. It was repaired correctly and I ran the rig for another 50K until I wrecked it again (long story). My point is that if it is on a car fax, it was likely repaired by a qualified shop paid by insurance so it is likely fine.

For model year, I'd go 2013 - 2015 within the budget you have but that doesn't mean the 2011s aren't good values. From my recent market search, the 200s you have found all have very good prices, especially if they are all LC and not LX. Nothing wrong with LX but the market price is generally lower than equivalent LC. I bought a 2015 with 170K for $31K and I figure it was 6 or $7K under market. I didn't consider rust belt rigs (NE does not always = rust but often does). The really good prices makes me wonder a bit about actual condition. You need to get underneath and look. Your 3,4,5 options are smokin' deals if the rigs are in good shape. From what you have said in your original post, I'd go #4 but #5 keeps $4K in your pocket for used car risk contingency and it looks like the likely stuff has been taken care of. Plan on baselining all fluids regardless of which one you buy.

 

[robo200]

I just recently did this and weighted mileage, MY and cost. I got lots of input when I asked essentially the same question. Most people here seem to say get the newest MY, lowest miles, best condition you can afford. That certainly makes sense as a broad general rule but general rules don't always apply to specific situations. For your use case and level of desire to DYI wrench, the general rule is probably good.

Evaluating mileage in terms of price is a mathematical exercise that can be done but IMO, it is not as relevant for a 200 as it is for cars in general. Some folks also factor in resale value. If your a buy it, run it for 50K and sell it kinda guy (nothing wrong with that) then the general rule applies and the general market value of mileage applies. Here is a comp valuation I had on a recent insurance claim for my 2013 LC. It shows what the insurance co thinks the market value of mileage.

View attachment 3417725
View attachment 3417724

If your a keep it forever guy, the $$$ value of mileage doesn't matter. What matters is the actual condition of the vehicle. Most people equate miles with condition and vehicle life is often thought of miles but a properly maintained 200 has a good chance of getting up to 300 or 400K miles. So, a 150K mile rig could be a lot better than a 90K rig owned by an idiot or a "run it a while and dump it" guy.

Accidents are difficult to evaluate without knowing exactly what happened and how it was repaired. For me, accidents don't DQ a potential buy as I view them as a potentially pushing the price down and making it a better deal for me with my definition of value (I run the rig forever and resale doesn't matter to me). I've had a major accident (deer strike) that was a major repair and would show up on a car fax as a near total major accident to the front end. That would scare off many potential buyers. It was repaired correctly and I ran the rig for another 50K until I wrecked it again (long story). My point is that if it is on a car fax, it was likely repaired by a qualified shop paid by insurance so it is likely fine.

For model year, I'd go 2013 - 2015 within the budget you have but that doesn't mean the 2011s aren't good values. From my recent market search, the 200s you have found all have very good prices, especially if they are all LC and not LX. Nothing wrong with LX but the market price is generally lower than equivalent LC. I bought a 2015 with 170K for $31K and I figure it was 6 or $7K under market. I didn't consider rust belt rigs (NE does not always = rust but often does). The really good prices makes me wonder a bit about actual condition. You need to get underneath and look. Your 3,4,5 options are smokin' deals if the rigs are in good shape. From what you have said in your original post, I'd go #4 but #5 keeps $4K in your pocket for used car risk contingency and it looks like the likely stuff has been taken care of. Plan on baselining all fluids regardless of which one you buy.

Thanks everyone for inputs and especially the thoughtful reply above. Sounds like later MY is the way to go. All vehicles were LX not LC. Based on the insurance formula, $3K value for 40k miles, which is 13 cents per mile. It sounds reasonable. I was using 25 cents a mile in my head earlier based on a leasing deal (different car, mileage overage charge) I had a long time ago.

 

[BVE]

#3 - upgraded tech, no accident.

 

[32cls6speedmt]

I would go with number 5. Someone who changed water pump with radiator probably took care of it. Plus it is 2014. I think the 13-15 were best looking lx.

 

[relaxing]

Get the one with the cold box and Levinson stereo

If you haven’t already, grab the VINs, sign up on the lexus site so you can plug them in and see how each were optioned.

It’s pretty rare to find them without the luxury package, but I wouldn’t buy one without it.

 

[robo200]

If you haven’t already, grab the VINs, sign up on the lexus site so you can plug them in and see how each were optioned.

It’s pretty rare to find them without the luxury package, but I wouldn’t buy one without it.

I printed out all FIVE vehicle's specifications from lexus.com and not one mentioned luxury package or Levinson audio. Am I looking at the wrong area? The dealership listing of this particular vehicle does mention lux package though.

 

[relaxing]

That’s weird… looks like Lexus changed their site and now it doesn’t show the packages? Has anyone else noticed the change?

Luckily, it’s pretty easy to spot the buttons for the features you want provides the dealer provided a decent shot of the front console.

 

[TheComedian]

I wouldn’t make a decision by the miles.
You should look how the owner was taking care about the car,
there shouldn’t be top much rust on the frame (the car is build so massive that even a bunch of isn’t a no no),
what was changed or when was it changed the last time,
pending on your preferences how good looks the interior (that can drop the price downwards if you haven’t a problem with scratched and ripped plastics since it doesn’t affect any kind of usability hehe),
oh and you should took a close look to the side sills! They are a weak spot for rust on the 200s

And all the other standard „looking-at-a-car“ stuff like a freshly washed engine bay what is probably a bad sign for leaks and other stuff.