Two comments for consideration:
1) I heard an interview with a guy (Aussie?) whose job is recoveries, and he said that over a year, the average pull was something like 2,500 pounds peak. Not sure how he measured, and of course there is a distribution above and below 2500#, but it does put the "1.5x GVWR" rule of thumb into question. To TonyP's point, dunno how much weight difference that makes.
2) If you aren't going to use it very often, you could consider putting it on a front hitch receiver and leave it at home most of the time. Obvious downsides to that (approach angle, hernia) and may not make sense if you are already doing steel bumper.
But IIRC, you said you generally did pretty mild trails - I'm thinking forest service roads? You could probably do without the winch. Maybe carry a come-along and MaxTrax as insurance when you wheel.
I’m sure that light pull is super common.
I’d wager most pulls aren’t heavy.
Sometimes you just need a little nudge...or you’re really just winching to prevent a roll back (I sincerely doubt Dan is interested in those trails though!).
For example: Those photos Kreitin posted of winching a couple trucks up Hell’s Gate had nothing to do with forward movement or lack of traction. They had traction to spare. Those pulls were because they ready to do backflips. The winching was just about keeping their noses to the rock.
But there are other times where it’s way up there and it’s easy to tell. When the winch slows waaay down on its own, it’s pulling at the high end of its rating. Man, on one pull last Summer, it was pulling suuuper hard....to the point that I really would have been well served to use the snatch block as
@Taco2Cruiser wisely defaults to. I really should have myself.
Re the “easy trail” thing:
To me, the biggest reason for power (and a snatch) for folks on easier trails is *surprise mud bogs.* They can get you in the most benign-looking trails! (Ask me how I know!!).
You can be putting along on easy-street, and suddenly your down to your belly in GLUE because some dirt-put had no way to drain accumulated rainfall. For that, even a big winch with a snatch might struggle depending on what’s going on at your belly.
But anyway...
I’ma shut up now and wait til Dan decides what he wants.

Always interesting to think about this stuff though, since it gets all of us thinking about why we do what we do (and how we might need to do something different than we do!). I can say (admit) that it’s reminded me I’m silly not to whip out my snatch block and fully utilize my front tow points with it.