The Fate of Diesel in the USA?

Discussion in 'Diesel Tech / 24 volts' started by doubled, Mar 12, 2018.

  1. doubled

    doubled

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    I've begun following the news in Europe surrounding the recent of approval passed down by German courts to ban diesel in German cities. Apparently Rome is following suit, and there are rumblings in the UK news of potential bans and/or additional taxation on diesels. In heavier news, some outlets are claiming that diesel is
    dead (Diesel is DEAD: World’s biggest car maker says it is SCRAPPING diesel cars FOREVER) in the wake of Toyota's announcement that they will no longer sell diesel vehicles in Europe. Needless to say, a cursory Google search will reveal that diesel is getting a lot of bad press in Europe at the moment.

    Meanwhile in the USA, Popular Mechanics is over there writing about the US diesel revival (The Fledgling Revival of American Diesel). Ford, GM Nissan all continue to offer diesels in their trucks, with a handful of European auto makers still bringing diesel offers to the states. It would seem the the US and European market are presently trending in opposite directions on diesel. Of course these seem like pretty different markets from one another, but still interesting.

    I collect all this information above to contextualize the following question: In light of recent developments in Europe, what, in your opinion, is the future of diesel in the USA? Will the USA follow suit in terms of regulation and possible banning of diesel vehicles, or will diesels continue to roam free within our borders for the foreseeable future? Do you believe diesel vehicles will continue to be operable under the 25 year rule and antiquing, or will older vehicles soon be banished from the roads?

    I know no one can predict the future, but I'm very interested to hear the opinions of the MUD community on this matter, particularly those of you that drive these rigs everyday and are also likely more keyed-in to the US automobile sector as a whole than myself. What are your thoughts on the viability of diesel vehicle ownership in the USA over the next 10-20 years?
     
  2. jakerudy

    jakerudy

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    So many industries depend on diesel - trucking, farming, construction, etc. that it would be an economic disaster to ban diesel anytime in the near future. There is just too much infrastructure to replace and how many politicians are going to jump on the bandwagon of "we can't truck your food and farmers can't supply your food"? Some wackos will but there just isn't a current replacement.

    Small diesel cars are efficient but not essential. Working tractors & trucks are.
     
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  3. Loober

    Loober

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    I'll chime in, first of all for those who have not seen the new documentary on netflix about the VW scandal, its called dirty money, need to check it out. It is alarming how egregious and criminal the whole thing was by VW, which exposed all the other manufactures basically doing the same thing.

    The US diesel market in my opinion is night and day from Europe. The main players, Ford and Chevy have developed diesels that are completely different from the rest of the world, and that's so they can meet the regulations, VW and others claimed they could. There is a reason why our diesels have DPF, Uria, etc, get poor fuel mileage, are not as powerful, and cost three times as much as VW did. Also reason why manufacturers such as Toyota never entered into the US market, because they knew they would have to basically develop a brand new diesel program for the US market, and that did not make financial sense(I don;t blame them).

    So as far as the US diesel market, I think it will not change as a result of what is happening in Europe, Ford and Chevy will never jeopordize their diesel market share in the US and do something like VW. I did speak with a CARB employee about the impact here from the VW scandal, although they could not tell me much, they did elude to more attention being given to US market diesels to ensure nothing similar is going on.

    As far as the few of us that are lucky to have registered and drive an imported diesel in the states, I don't see it being a big enough number that will raise flags with the regulators to go after us.
     
  4. FJ73Texas

    FJ73Texas

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    I think I read somewhere that KIA is proposing bringing a diesel SUV to the USA which surprised me. If that does happen, then I don't think the diesel market is completely dead just yet.

    I never really was a fan of anything KIA but it is cool they are entertaining the idea of a diesel option in the USA.
     
  5. VidereStudios

    VidereStudios

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    Your concerns mirror mine as I am a potential future buyer of an HDJ80 and/or HDJ100. The increasing bans on diesels in major city centers in Europe is a factor that I have to take into consideration (as I intend to travel overseas extensively). I totally understand the various European government's stance on diesel...I was in Eastern Europe last summer for five weeks and it was alarming how noticeable the diesel fumes were in the major cities. Almost reminded me of the couple of times I was in the Philippines and the amount of diesel exhaust pervading the towns there.

    I truly do think the VW scandal is going to be the start of the end of diesel in passenger vehicles. We are at a turning point in the technology used to drive our vehicles and, right or wrong, hybrids and electric is the way of the future. I read an interesting article about the rise of Priuses in Mongolia due to Japan's strict regulations regarding used vehicle age:

    Why the Toyota Prius is conquering the land of Genghis Khan

    Like others have said, trucks, farm equipment, etc. will continue to use diesel for many years. However, I think hybrid technology and small turbo-charged petrol engines are going to be common in the near future with electric and hydrogen vehicles being the future of automotive powerplants. Diesel won't be banned in the U.S. for a long time (same for Europe), but I can definitely see it getting more expensive and potentially harder to find. Honestly, I am not really worried about availability of diesel. It is more the restriction of where I can and can't drive that is more concerning to me.
     
  6. Bisonthecruiser

    Bisonthecruiser

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    Don't forget Mazda is bringing diesel to the US and that the Wrangler should have diesel by the 2019 model year. Oil based fuels likely won't power cars/trucks 50 years from now. They'll be phased out along the way.
     
  7. Dougal

    Dougal

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    Toyota's announcement that they're stopping diesel cars isn't a surprise. They've never done it properly.

    Toyota have been pushing hybrids for over a decade now. It's marketing.
     
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  8. gerg

    gerg

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    Fracking and making America great again doesn't seem to have much in common with electric vehicles.
     
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  9. doubled

    doubled

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    Would you be willing to share more about Toyota having not done diesel cars properly? I don’t question your assertion (I have no basis for how to do diesel properly), I’m just interested to hear your thoughts on what they could have done better with that portion of their fleet through the years?
     
  10. Dougal

    Dougal

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    In 2000 one of the Japanese Premieres banned diesels from several cities. At that point Japanese car companies dropped diesel totally and left all innovation to the europeans and the few Japanese truck makers.

    In 2003 Honda and Toyota needed diesels, they were helped by Isuzu and both ended up with basically the same 2.2L 4 cylinders. Toyota in the Avensis. Honda in the Euro Accord.
    Since then both have introduced 2.0L diesels (again very similar) and the rumour is they aren't doing it themselves.

    The Avensis 2.2L diesel ended up kludged together into a V8 for the 70/200 series landcruisers because Toyota again didn't have anything suitable.

    Even the 3.0 1KD engine they ran from like 1998 till 2017 before replacing it.

    Toyota have lost the initiative completely with diesel. They don't take it seriously or invest internally and haven't for almost 2 decades now.
     
  11. Bleizbreizh

    Bleizbreizh

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    Lots of hype over diesels in Europe and plenty of political mileage being made out of it all. Perhaps it aint over yet as Mercedes are making a fanfare about their new diesels in europe. I can't coment on the US but it depends how much the legislators get wrapped up in the hysteria. I have seen the value of my old 2003 Renault drop to nothing (in the UK) and yet it still performs faultlessly and delivers up to 80 miles per gallon...

    Mercedes say

    "The new diesel engine is designed to meet future emissions legislation (RDE – Real Driving Emissions). In contrast to the current NEDC measurement cycle, the WLTP (Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure) cycle is aimed at ensuring that the figures for standard and real-world consumption are close together in future. In addition, it is planned in Europe to introduce a measuring procedure for Real Driving Emissions (RDE). This, too, is actively supported by Mercedes-Benz.

    The new engine is equipped with multiway exhaust gas recirculation (EGR). This combines cooled high-pressure and low-pressure EGR. It makes it possible to significantly further reduce the untreated emissions from the engine across the entire engine map, with the centre of combustion being optimised for fuel economy.

    The exhaust gas from the turbocharger is sent first to a diesel oxidation catalyst. It next passes the downdraft mixer, in which AdBlue® is added by means of a water-cooled dosing module. Thanks to a specially developed mixing area, the AdBlue® evaporates over the shortest possible distance in the exhaust gas stream and is distributed very uniformly on the surface of the downstream sDPF (particulate filter with coating to reduce nitrogen oxides). Positioned behind the sDPF is an SCR catalyst for further catalytic reduction of the nitrogen oxides. Only then does the treated exhaust gas enter the exhaust system."
     
  12. brownbear

    brownbear Mod in Hibernation Moderator

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    For me the fondness of diesels ends with the Land cruisers versions of mechanical control, and simplicity. Electronic control, egr's etc and I've lost interest.
    Do I want to live in a city full of old diesels, ah hell no. But I still enjoy my cruiser, putt putt, cough cough.

    We own novelty trucks.

    What I like about my diesel is simplicity, and that's the polar opposite of what a diesel is today. I actually think a hybrid drive on a gas engine is less trouble and more reliable than a modern diesel.
     
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  13. fitzmooney

    fitzmooney

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    I'll second that. Love my HJ60.
    I like it for its simplicity and ease of repair.
    I would hate to be in the desert in central Australia in a late model Cruiser and have computer problems.
    You would probably die out there.
     
  14. chappohj47

    chappohj47 Chappo Built SILVER Star

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    Diesels newer than 2015 or some thing are still allowed in the city because of the euro5 rating or with dpf
     
  15. Dougal

    Dougal

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    One drive on a modern diesel and you'll be converted. Compound turbos, instant torque, amazing fuel economy and so quiet you won't believe it.

    Did I mention 30,000km oil change intervals?

    Petrol still can't touch them for torque and fuel economy.
     
  16. roscoFJ73

    roscoFJ73

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    As soon as they put common rail injection and computers on diesels, they lost the rugged reliability diesels were famous for and ability for owners to do most of the upkeep.
    Computers need 10.5 volts or they shut down. My 1HZ just needs enough volts to keep the fuel cut solenoid open. Torch batteries will do it:cool:
     
  17. absalom

    absalom

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    Agreed. The 3.0 in my Sprinter is a jaw-dropping motor. Sure it has its issues with DPF, EGR, etc if it's not driven correctly, but definitely worth the price of admission.

    From a power standpoint, the 3.0 blows the pants off my old 1HD-T. Reliability wise, they are just as good AS LONG as they are driven correctly and maintained correctly. For $300 I can get a dealer-level diagnostic program that will tell me ANYTHING that is wrong with the motor. You can't do that with a 1HD-T ...
     
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  18. fitzmooney

    fitzmooney

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    Try that in the middle of Australia with the nearest dealer 2000km away.
     
  19. FJ73Texas

    FJ73Texas

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    Based on the discussion it seems like modern diesels are fine for the USA.

    How many Americans are going to find themselves being MacGyver with their diesel engines out in the wilderness? My guess is not that many.
     
  20. John in Utah

    John in Utah

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    Ya but that applies to literally anything. An old mechanical diesel can still fail in any number of ways.

    I don’t see the diesel market in the US changing anytime soon. Drive around town and try to tally all the pre-2007 diesels you see. There really aren’t many dirty diesels on our roads, consumer or commercial. Even the off highway and commercial trucks are regulated quite a bit cleaner now then they were even 5 years ago when I was in college doing dpf research with Cummins
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2018
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