Regarding bolt failure modes, there are a few!
- The obvious one is that something put too much force on a bolt in tension and in failed, that is a massive amount of force.
- Next (and not relevant to this failure as the tensioner body would react any shear in the bore) is that it saw too much force in shear, but the clamp forces in a joint are normally designed to take the load, the bolt just holds them together, so if it sheared it was under torqued.
- The bolt could be over torqued leading to partial yield of the thread, typically at the root which could then fail later.
- There is also under torque which leaves the bolt vulnerable to fatigue failure, particularly at stress concentrations like the thread root.
- This part has an unusual design with both fixings on one side, so if the bolts became loose the tensioner body could lever the bolt heads with every speed change in the belt (crank torsional vibration caused by each cylinder firing). This would put significantly more stress on the bolt than if they were either side of the tensioner.
I'd guess that it's the last one in this case. But without someone who really understands failure analysis looking at the actual parts it's just a guess.
Inside the cylinders you have a bit of carbon build up, but I wouldn't pull the heads for it. The cross hatching on the bores looks really nice - hopefully mine are in the same condition! The amount of oil (?) floating about seems strange, but I'd be suprised if it was coming from a head gasket unless you had major smoke issue before failure. As nissanh said, it could be valve stem seals. It could be excess fuel from failed starts, but looks a bit viscous for that.
The belt may look fine, but if it's skipped teeth it will have been damaged.
In your position I'd install a new belt, tensioner and any other bits that have taken a beating on the timing system - with a flapping belt, that could be everything. Then crank four full turns of the crank by hand with the plugs out to make sure everything feels smooth before spinning it on the starter (again plugs out, be aware that some of that oil may be blown out in the process). If all sounds good, rebuild and fire it up. Is the exhaust smoke short lived or persistent?
If you want to minimise cost risk you could do just the tensioner to start. If all is well when you run the engine, you then go back in and replace the belt, pulleys, waterpump etc. More labour, but lower spend risk.