Sigh. I can't get this resolved. New video attached below, but it's the same thing. This time I replaced the tensioner+pulley and the serpentine belt, all directly from Toyota.
-top idler pulley, OEM
-serpentine belt (twice, first wasn't OEM)
-tensioner unit and idler pulley, OEM
-timing belt was replaced with Aisin kit 10k mi ago
I think the original serpentine tensioner was OK but the bearings on the idler pulleys were very gritty, so I don't feel bad about replacing them. Spinning everything else by hand (PS pump, alternator, fan bracket, AC compressor), the bearings feel normal. no wobble, grittiness or looseness. It doesn't matter whether the AC compressor is on or off.
Part of me worries that this could be a defective roller from the Aisin TB kit or the fan bracket, but I've already thrown a couple hundred bucks at the obvious-seeming stuff (gritty idlers, etc) only to get nowhere. So I'm hesitant to start ripping stuff out unless I'm sure.
One clue I have is that the previous owner replaced the serpentine belt (with the previous one, non-OEM) due to a squeak. So perhaps this has nothing to do with my Aisin TB kit. Who really knows.
This ONLY happens when it's less than 40 degrees outside, ONLY on the first cold start of the morning and ONLY lasts a minute or less.
But I can't stand it.