This is my best stab at it and many will come up with other ways to assess. Just want to share my process and experience with my predictions. There are exceptions to all rules.
Yes, if you go to a dealership they will have LC and LX listed for $2-5k or more above the "fair" price listed. Some will laugh when you hit them with the low number. There will be some nuance to every individual vehicle and its history. The "fair price" would be somewhere around what a dealer has in it (trade in + cleaning + some basic maint items) or that a private seller would most likely consider their bottom dollar. The prices to most people will seem low as we come out of the crazy highs we have seen but this is an effective projection for this year, in my opinion. Some dealers or individuals will hold onto higher pricing and may still get it but overall there are more coming on the market and several that have been sitting for longer. These numbers will make more sense maybe in 6 months from now. Dealers will have a harder time because of what they may have paid for it on trade in or someone that bought to flip.
I've had about 4 vehicles (3 lx and 1 lc) within 6 hours of me that I looked at, they passed on my offer, and later circled back that ultimately sold for what I projected or within $1,000. I got my LX for the "holy smokes" price but to be fair I have had to catch up on some maintenance items that were neglected (coolant, plugs, brake fluid, front rotors and pads, diff and transfer case fluid) that I added back , plus travel expense, that got me into the "fair" to "steal" pricing with OEM parts with me doing the labor. No rust, southern truck, not on the coast, with maintenance records every 5k miles since new (basic oil changes, tire rotations, brake replacements, tire replacements, and the fuel pump recall; nothing more).
I was turned down by several dealers and individuals when I initially offered. Funny enough, I have had about 6 different people calling me back wanting to reneg (dealers and individuals). I had to be patient and had to have conversations with people. I did have to drive 8 hours one way to get it but it was worth it. They can be found and had, for the scrupulous.
All I can say is it panned out for me in the southeast from a private seller.