Hybrid, or Electric?

[Fast Eddy]

Toyota Is Right: We Need More Hybrid Cars and Fewer EVs. Here's Why

The auto industry is going all-in on electric vehicles, but a better way to lower emissions quickly is staring us in the face: hybrids.

www.thedrive.com

This is my thinking for our blended family. We already have a Lexus CT200h that will get replaced sometime. 40-50 miles of all electric would cover 95% of our driving and the folks sitting next to their all-electric cars waiting to charge when we're on a road trip doesn't seem like "the way".

 

[suprarx7nut]

I see Toyota's hybrid talking point here as their way of attempting to stay relevant while they've lost a lot of ground in the market during this early EV transition. Manufacturing and profiting on EV sales is a different ball game and I'm not sure Toyota is poised to lead that effort as of 2023.

The hybrid benefits are all nullified with relatively predictable improvements in charge time and locations. The battery mining limitations are being quickly resolved either by battery chemistry technology updates, new mineral reserve discoveries or just improved industrial efficiencies. It reminds me of "peak oil". Much of the world went nuts over the theory that we'd become restricted on gasoline, but it never actually happened. If there's industrial demand for it, we (humans) will find a way to achieve it. If you remove the raw materials limitations (which I propose are a non-issue), the core argument of that article fall apart. I don't think we'll see the battery supply be an issue beyond a very near-term time horizon.

Full EV is glorious for commuting if you've got either home or work charging. It costs nearly nothing and you're always "topped off". Once the majority of the population experiences or has a close friend/family that owns an EV I think the adoption rate will explode.

For road trips EVs are a challenge - or at least a consideration - but that excuse weakens with every passing day. The quantity of Tesla Superchargers (soon to be open to nearly all EVs) is ever-growing and already substantial. When you can charge hundreds of miles of range in 15 minutes and most any grocery store, mall, Costco, rest stop, restaurant, park, etc.... has a plug-in spot to top-off the gas station starts to look more and more silly. Factor in oil changes, belt changes, brake jobs, etc... and EVs just start to runaway with a win, IMO. Hybrids only get you a part of the EV benefit while still holding onto a lot of the downsides and constricting the overall vehicle architecture to an extreme degree.

 

[LandLocked93]

Not sure batteries will ever match petro's energy density. Certainly not diesel. Frankly batteries would have to surpass petro density by a good margin for one glaring reason:
Batteries weigh what they weigh, empty or full. Petro on the other hand will always have that many hundred pounds advantage in efficiency, both full and even more as the tank empties.
Plus the range limitations of electric are absolute, regardless of improvements. And you can't take more electricity with you.
UNLESS you can make more, a la hybrid. Solar will never be a practical solution.
What range would we get with a small 1ltr engine (or smaller even), 8 gallons of fuel, and a generator to charge a 200kWh battery in an 80? Up to 1000mi on a tank possibly?
I say hybrid all day long.

 

[jonheld]

New battery technology, and more importantly, new motor technology is coming to market. The motors are smaller, lighter, and have more HP in a compact formfactor. I think the combination of the 2 is going to have a remarkable impact on the EV industry as a whole. As far as energy density, that's only part of the equation, and it will get better. Technology moves forward.
All that said, I'm pretty happy with our Polestar2 after almost 3 years. I can't see going backwards in tech for anything else, at least not for a passenger car.

Direct-drive in-wheel motors - Elaphe

in-wheel.com

 

[suprarx7nut]

Not sure batteries will ever match petro's energy density. Certainly not diesel. Frankly batteries would have to surpass petro density by a good margin for one glaring reason:
Batteries weigh what they weigh, empty or full. Petro on the other hand will always have that many hundred pounds advantage in efficiency, both full and even more as the tank empties.
Plus the range limitations of electric are absolute, regardless of improvements. And you can't take more electricity with you.
UNLESS you can make more, a la hybrid. Solar will never be a practical solution.
What range would we get with a small 1ltr engine (or smaller even), 8 gallons of fuel, and a generator to charge a 200kWh battery in an 80? Up to 1000mi on a tank possibly?
I say hybrid all day long.

In 20k miles of EV driving I've never once desired or needed any more range. Not a single time. I've had much more range anxiety in my 100 series with a 2 gallon jerry can. Just depends what you're doing. For commuting, the range is a total non-consideration. Even in the winter.

That seems to be a really common concern from people that haven't owned an EV. You kinda have to work to get yourself into a situation where that's a problem. Charge at home or charge at work and it's not a problem. Superchargers to top-off (Tesla at least) are an easy backup, but rarely needed for me.

The weight is a strange consideration. I've never thought, hmm I wish these batteries had better density. What does the ICE drivetrain of a car weigh? Around 500 lbs I bet, right? Kinda like the weight difference between a hybrid and EV?

We'll see how it goes, but I wager you'll see some plug in hybrids in road-trip and rural oriented vehicles like SUVs and trucks. For everything else I think EV is going to take over with increasing pace.

 

[LandLocked93]

Agree there is alot of tech coming and going, but I maintain energy density is at the core of it all.
EVs, while simpler in many ways, also introduce many points of failure that mechanical systems just do not have. Largely due to the up/down stream nature of electronics and software. A bug/bad sector/memory hole/etc in one part of ROM can cause many unrelated things to fail because of the nature of how code works. It's just part of the beast of coding. This affects even heavily-tech'd ICE rigs too.
All batteries require replacement. Gas tanks by and large do not. And even if they do, gas tanks do not cost thousands of dollars like new batteries do.
Error handling is a coders toolbox. But only for coders. Not for the vast majority of owners of these things. Plus external factors are far more invasive to code. Much less so for mechanical systems.
The end-all be-all frankly is longevity regardless.
The new Land Cruiser with the hybrid option is tantilizing...in so much that the theory is solid.
How well and how long it will last is the real q tho.
A full EV Land Cruiser? Ehhh, like you say, time will tell.

 

[120mm]

All batteries require replacement.

This is the limiting factor in my mind.

For most consumers, being a wage slave to a car payment is no big deal.

For those of us who have accumulated wealth through owning vehicles for literally decades, having to buy a new car because the battery died, whose replacement exceeds the value of the vehicle is not acceptable.

And just doing a magic hand wave claiming "technology will improve and fix all the problems" isn't necessarily intellectually rigorous.

 

[franklin40]

the biggest hold up to going full ev for me is towing capacity with range in a cold climate. i have a cabin i use regularly in the winter i need to be able to haul snowmobiles to and it’s a 300 mile drive. there are no superchargers along the way (yet) as it’s a remote location. hauling a boat in the summer is even heavier so range will drop that much more. i’m sure as battery technology improves this will become a non issue but for the foreseeable future a hybrid is a better option. i’m actually on the list for the new landcruiser. once that’s has run it’s life maybe a full ev will be able to do what i need it to do.

it’s just not cost effective to own two vehicles and depreciate them both just to have a full ev commuter. the savings on fuel pretty much balance the depreciation when compared to just owning and maintaining one gas vehicle

 

[suprarx7nut]

This is the limiting factor in my mind.

For most consumers, being a wage slave to a car payment is no big deal.

For those of us who have accumulated wealth through owning vehicles for literally decades, having to buy a new car because the battery died, whose replacement exceeds the value of the vehicle is not acceptable.

And just doing a magic hand wave claiming "technology will improve and fix all the problems" isn't necessarily intellectually rigorous.

As more EVs are now out of warranty, we're seeing lots of these options pop up. There were none just a few years ago. Add to all these options the now countless untested junkyard packs and it's a jungle full of options (not all of them good, for sure).

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Relatively few people have been faced with the "pay full price for a totally dead EV battery out of warranty" problem, but certainly some have. A hefty price to be an early adopter.

As of 2027, if my 100kwh Model S battery died, I'd get the battery tested, figure out which pack was the issue (it's extremely unlikely the whole thing is toast) and then buy the necessary packs to get it back to life. Normally it's just one cell or one pack. As of 2023, that would be $1500 + shipping and labor (or DIY labor) and you're back in business. In 2027 when it's out of warranty I imagine that price tag will be roughly halved, but that's just a guess.

In the real world, battery prices for Tesla and the industry in general more than halved in 4 years up to 2020. Costs continued to fall after that, but certainly Covid put a damper on the speed of innovation and cost reduction from 2020 to 2022. Despite the raw costs falling, the repair prices haven't fallen much and I won't expect it to so long as demand for new EVs is still sky high. They've got so many buyers lining up on waitlists that there's no motivation to focus on the oddball repair bill right now (even if the bill is extreme). On the plus side, Tesla runs the service business as a no-profit arm of the business. Perhaps the repair bills will start to fall once we see more vehicles out of warranty.

For reference, a 100 KWH battery is the "normal big" size for Tesla. Rivian is 130 I think. That means Tesla's $81 cost below translates to an ~$8,100 pack. Just 7 years ago that was $24,000.

When you hear things like "the tech will continue to improve and prices will continue to fall" the chart below is an example of the evidence that makes that more than hand waving. We've got hard data from multiple companies in multiple countries that all tell the same story - battery prices are falling and have been for nearly a decade.

Give it another 3-5 years and I bet they'll be under $10k for a typical 400-mile range pack brand new straight from Tesla/Rivian/(maybe Toyota now that Toyota decided to publicly enter the EV market?).

It's very similar to "Peak Oil", IMO. The people with political motivations are stating that the mineral resources are scarce while simultaneously massive reserves are being discovered and the processes to refine those natural resources are being improved.

We didn't run out of oil or gasoline and we won't run out of lithium.

the biggest hold up to going full ev for me is towing capacity with range in a cold climate. i have a cabin i use regularly in the winter i need to be able to haul snowmobiles to and it’s a 300 mile drive. there are no superchargers along the way (yet) as it’s a remote location. hauling a boat in the summer is even heavier so range will drop that much more. i’m sure as battery technology improves this will become a non issue but for the foreseeable future a hybrid is a better option. i’m actually on the list for the new landcruiser. once that’s has run it’s life maybe a full ev will be able to do what i need it to do.

it’s just not cost effective to own two vehicles and depreciate them both just to have a full ev commuter. the savings on fuel pretty much balance the depreciation when compared to just owning and maintaining one gas vehicle

Totally agreed. For remote Canadian towing, no way I'd use an EV right now. Not the right tool for that job until you have a much larger battery with reliable chargers abundantly located in the area. ICE powertrains are great for cold weather abuse. All that wasted heat comes in handy!

 

[MOTOV8R]

Toyota Is Right: We Need More Hybrid Cars and Fewer EVs. Here's Why

The auto industry is going all-in on electric vehicles, but a better way to lower emissions quickly is staring us in the face: hybrids.

www.thedrive.com

This is my thinking for our blended family. We already have a Lexus CT200h that will get replaced sometime. 40-50 miles of all electric would cover 95% of our driving and the folks sitting next to their all-electric cars waiting to charge when we're on a road trip doesn't seem like "the way".

View attachment 3368115

For large SUVs and trucks, especially those used for towing campers this seems ideal. I would totally consider something I can drive around town on a charge and then hit the hills when needed and not be concerned about finding a charge in rural idaho, montana, utah, and colorado. I don’t understand why no one is offering a large plug-in hybrid. Within 10 years we should have batteries with twice the range and much faster charging. Check out some of the things Toyota is working on. When that happens I would go all electric. For now I am just watching and waiting.

 

[Fast Eddy]

For large SUVs and trucks, especially those used for towing campers this seems ideal. I would totally consider something I can drive around town on a charge and then hit the hills when needed and not be concerned about finding a charge in rural idaho, montana, utah, and colorado. I don’t understand why no one is offering a large plug-in hybrid. Within 10 years we should have batteries with twice the range and much faster charging. Check out some of the things Toyota is working on. When that happens I would go all electric. For now I am just watching and waiting.

Isn't that exactly a Jeep Wrangler 4xe? I don't pay much attention to anything jeep, but...

 

[MOTOV8R]

Isn't that exactly a Jeep Wrangler 4xe? I don't pay much attention to anything jeep, but...

View attachment 3413599

It’s not a full size. I am thinking Suburban, expedition, Sequoia, 1/2 ton and 3/4 ton pickups.

Edit: didn’t realize the grand cherokee was in their 4xe line up. I checked it out, max towing is 6200, my trailer is more than that.

 

[LandLocked93]

Someone mentioned somewhere that trail range on an EV was better than the stated range by and large.
Not sure that tracks with convention but would be curious to see if that's true.
Not that it would change my stance on pure EV.
But it would further bolster my belief in large-battery hybrids.

 

[Fast Eddy]

Someone mentioned somewhere that trail range on an EV was better than the stated range by and large.
Not sure that tracks with convention but would be curious to see if that's true.
Not that it would change my stance on pure EV.
But it would further bolster my belief in large-battery hybrids.

It makes sense. Most of the power used while driving is from pushing air and when wheeling that's not much of a factor. You're barely moving a lot of the time and half is downhill, resulting in some recharging. A weekend of serene electric wheeling and 4-cyl mileage to and from the trailhead is pretty compelling.

Only in a Jeep.

 

[Wilsil]

We have a mild hybrid for our day-to-day driving, a Honda Insight from 2010.
Driving it for the last 8 years and we still like it.
It's not as efficient as the Toyota hybrid, but still enough.
When upgrading, maybe next year as it has done 290,000 kms at th emoment, we are thinking towards an EV.
However in Australia they are stll very expensive.

 

[Tigerstripe40]

What range would we get with a small 1ltr engine (or smaller even), 8 gallons of fuel, and a generator to charge a 200kWh battery in an 80? Up to 1000mi on a tank possibly?
I say hybrid all day long.

Most small generators are less than 500 CC.
Hondas Largest portable generator, at 10KW is 688cc.

At full load (9KW rated, 10KW peak), it will run through 8.19 gallons of fuel in 5.4 hours.
There will be conversion losses because of changing the power back from AC to DC to charge the car (lots of conversion losses here). I am WAGing here, but between the inverting at the Generator, and converting back to DC in the car, I'd say 10% loss.

9KW * 5.4 hours * .9 = 43.7 KW/h of energy put back into the battery.
So 43.7KW/h will give about 125 miles of range, assuming 35 KW/hr/100 miles.

That 200 KW/h (I don't know of any EVs that have a battery that large, FWIW) battery will take 4.57 (lets just say 5) cycles to fully recharge fully.
25 hours and 41 gallons of fuel...

The dimensions of the generator are 41.0" x 27.7" x 35.1"
41 gallons of fuel is 7.75 20litre Jerry cans each being 6.5x13.5x18.5
Plus the weight of everything and the fact that you'd need to carry it all on a trailer, so figure in a significant percentage loss of range to carry it all.

Yeah, hybrids make much more sense at least for now.

 

[LandLocked93]

Most small generators are less than 500 CC.
Hondas Largest portable generator, at 10KW is 688cc.

At full load (9KW rated, 10KW peak), it will run through 8.19 gallons of fuel in 5.4 hours.
There will be conversion losses because of changing the power back from AC to DC to charge the car (lots of conversion losses here). I am WAGing here, but between the inverting at the Generator, and converting back to DC in the car, I'd say 10% loss.

9KW * 5.4 hours * .9 = 43.7 KW/h of energy put back into the battery.
So 43.7KW/h will give about 125 miles of range, assuming 35 KW/hr/100 miles.

That 200 KW/h (I don't know of any EVs that have a battery that large, FWIW) battery will take 4.57 (lets just say 5) cycles to fully recharge fully.
25 hours and 41 gallons of fuel...

The dimensions of the generator are 41.0" x 27.7" x 35.1"
41 gallons of fuel is 7.75 20litre Jerry cans each being 6.5x13.5x18.5
Plus the weight of everything and the fact that you'd need to carry it all on a trailer, so figure in a significant percentage loss of range to carry it all.

Yeah, hybrids make much more sense at least for now.

Ok, lol I said generator but meant whatever hybrids use to recharge their batts. Inverter perhaps?
It used to be that generators were strictly DC and alternators were strictly AC. I know alternators are still AC, but I think some generators are AC as well these days. Nomenclature switcharoo?
Fact is tho I think AC regen straight to AC wheel motors can minimize conversion losses. Except that the battery would still need to get charged.
Last I saw, it took about 1 gallon of fuel in an external generator like the ones you mentioned to reclaim about 3 miles of range on an EV. Which isn't acceptable.
The typical, modern hybrid has to be more efficient than that, yeah? Especially considering the voltage jump to 800V@the motors (which I believe Teslas run@ that voltage).