GX550 & LC250 Tracking Thread (4 Viewers)

[APIOQM]

If the marketing video is correct, they are allocating only 33k units this year. That isn’t much and a way to help control demand and product expectations.

If there are around 1000 Lexus dealerships in the world (conservative approximation), that's 33 units per dealership. Now, certain markets are not getting the GX right away, so we could see maybe double the units at dealerships here in the US/Canada. That seems reasonable to me for a first year of production?

 

[carboncycles]

~243 dealers in the US

 

[mcgaskins]

If the marketing video is correct, they are allocating only 33k units this year. That isn’t much and a way to help control demand and product expectations.

While that volume is small compared with mainstream mid size SUVs, it's 10x the annual US volume of the 200 series Land Cruiser. In fact, there we fewer than 42k total 200s sold in the US from 2008-2021, so the GX will eclipse the total thirteen year run of the 200 within the first year and a half. It will be interesting to see the production ramp of the GX especially with later powertrain options.

 

[TheLCProject]

That's interesting but I feel like it's not really a fair comparison. I feel like the 300/600 and 550/250 are two totally different vehicles with historically different sales volumes (because of many factors - price being one of them)

One source says Lexus sold 32k GX460s in 2023.

2024 Lexus GX Sales Figures

Lexus GX monthly, quarterly, and yearly sales and statistics in the United States. Including data and interactive charts for the latest model year 2024 and crossover/suvs segment.

carfigures.com

I want to see what 2024 4Runner production numbers will look like compared to recent years.

For those that keep the plants straight, could Toyota be sacrificing 4runner volume for LC250s?
Or is the US just finally getting some of the global LC Prado volume?

 

[WkndProject]

If the marketing video is correct, they are allocating only 33k units this year. That isn’t much and a way to help control demand and product expectations.

Is that US?

 

[Phillyd2]

If Lexus sold 32k GX460s in 2023 then we and them are in for a world of hurt keeping up with GX550 demand. Add to that the new 250 which will sell like hotcakes and whatever the new 4R will be – do they have the manufacturing capacity or will the 4R need to be shifted elsewhere like Mexico to keep up?

 

[WkndProject]

If Lexus sold 32k GX460s in 2023 then we and them are in for a world of hurt keeping up with GX550 demand. Add to that the new 250 which will sell like hotcakes and whatever the new 4R will be – do they have the manufacturing capacity or will the 4R need to be shifted elsewhere like Mexico to keep up?

33k in the US sounds about right. Even if they sell better, they aren’t starting until April, so a much shorter sales year.

 

[OGBeno]

If Lexus sold 32k GX460s in 2023 then we and them are in for a world of hurt keeping up with GX550 demand. Add to that the new 250 which will sell like hotcakes and whatever the new 4R will be – do they have the manufacturing capacity or will the 4R need to be shifted elsewhere like Mexico to keep up?

Most likely what will happen is that all non-US GX/LC production will be shifted to Hino Hamura from Tahara. This will open up capacity at Tahara for increased GX/LC250 demand for US market.

That‘s an educated guess, though. Manufacturing capacity changes have most likely been determined already years in advance of new model changeover.

We just don’t have visibility to it yet.

 

[Phillyd2]

Most likely what will happen is that all non-US GX/LC production will be shifted to Hino Hamura from Tahara. This will open up capacity at Tahara for increased GX/LC250 demand for US market.

That‘s an educated guess, though. Manufacturing capacity changes have most likely been determined already years in advance of new model changeover.

We just don’t have visibility to it yet.

LOL yeah, I'm sure they do have a plan in place and wouldn't be reading this thread saying "oh crap, never thought of that!"

If the new 4R is more like the Taco and will mostly come here then Mexico starts making more sense.

 

[mkennedy009]

Maybe they get smart and allow us to order units and not rely on the Dealers.

 

[OGBeno]

LOL yeah, I'm sure they do have a plan in place and wouldn't be reading this thread saying "oh crap, never thought of that!"

If the new 4R is more like the Taco and will mostly come here then Mexico starts making more sense.

4Runner will not leave Japan manufacture.

 

[TheLCProject]

4Runner will not leave Japan manufacture.

Can you allude to some of the reasons why?

 

[M1911]

Maybe they get smart and allow us to order units and not rely on the Dealers.

Not going to happen.

 

[shinkle23]

I just got back from local Lexus dealer. It was disappointing to say the least. I went in to get on their allocation list and give them a deposit as I had already discussed this with them a week ago. I was told this morning that they are no longer taking deposits nor adding names to their existing GX550 waiting list. They have around 50 people on the list currently and believe that's probably more than their allocation will be for a year. Also informed me they "intend" to add market adjustment of $5K-$10K. I guess that's great for the dealer and Lexus and but sad for a guy trying buy one.

 

[TheLCProject]

I just got back from local Lexus dealer. It was disappointing to say the least. I went in to get on their allocation list and give them a deposit as I had already discussed this with them a week ago. I was told this morning that they are no longer taking deposits nor adding names to their existing GX550 waiting list. They have around 50 people on the list currently and believe that's probably more than their allocation will be for a year. Also informed me they "intend" to add market adjustment of $5K-$10K. I guess that's great for the dealer and Lexus and but sad for a guy trying buy one.

I'm sorry to hear that - that's a terrible experience. Still waiting for resolution of my experience at the Toyota dealer the other day but it suffices to say it wasn't much better.

I want to ask these people that are on the list for $75k + $5k-$10k markup where they were from 2008-2021 when the LC/LX570 were struggling to move units. Social media hype? Stimulus money? It sure isn't because of better financing rates. Maybe they are aging into it like I am/was?

I was in college in 2008 and arguably still can't "afford" a new $80k+ vehicle as there are better uses for my money.

 

[Rednexus]

$5-10K market adjustment is nuts. You might as well have walked into a Stellantis or Ford Dealer. My local Toyota dealer was capping market adjustments at $1,500 over MSRP on vehicles - with a large waitlist - and lowered them to as much as $500 depending on if you financed with them and were a local resident or not. Some dealers are very much slimier than others though.

Dealers will do this kind of stuff as long as the market allows it. Our days of a Dow at 38,000+ and a robust economy won't last forever - eventually things will slow down and re-equilibrate. Save or smartly invest your money now and pull the trigger later.

 

[Phillyd2]

Absolutely nuts but we all know that people will stand in line to give it. While I hate the dealers for doing it, I also understand.

 

[OGBeno]

Can you allude to some of the reasons why?

It would take years to setup a new assembly line elsewhere for transfer of model production. And we would have heard about it already in industry documentation.

And a part of the 4Runner selling and marketing points are that they are manufactured at Tahara with Japanese workers. 4Runner are only manufactured at Tahara. Not like Corollas or Prius or RAV4 which are manufactured globally at many different plants.

If someone said we’d see Hilux manufacturing in Mexico, I’d buy that because Mexico already has Hilux sold there. And the Hilux is based off of the global IMV platform which is distinguished by its ability to be fully modular. 4Runner is not a modular platform and hasn’t yet transitioned to the TNGA-F architecture (though it’s already being tested and prototyped as we speak).

 

[TheLCProject]

It would take years to setup a new assembly line elsewhere for transfer of model production. And we would have heard about it already in industry documentation.

And a part of the 4Runner selling and marketing points are that they are manufactured at Tahara with Japanese workers. 4Runner are only manufactured at Tahara. Not like Corollas or Prius or RAV4 which are manufactured globally at many different plants.

If someone said we’d see Hilux manufacturing in Mexico, I’d buy that because Mexico already has Hilux sold there. And the Hilux is based off of the global IMV platform which is distinguished by its ability to be fully modular. 4Runner is not a modular platform and hasn’t yet transitioned to the TNGA-F architecture (though it’s already being tested and prototyped as we speak).

Thanks Beno. Okay, so the 6th gen 4Runner will presumably be on TNGA-F - agreed.

EDIT: I should also preface..I don't know much of anything and am just trying to understand more. I appreciate the dialogue and insight and thank you for your time and knowledge sharing.

I was suggesting that the 6th gen 4runner production would not be in Japan - but obviously you'd know FAR more about that and whether or not a vacuum of future 4Runner production news meant anything.

As far as I understand, the 5th gen 4Runner is a western hemisphere and LHD-only product. Wouldn't that make sense to move to the Americas? I had considered a locale change when I heard that Toyota was adding a new model to the LC,LX,GX, Prado, 4Runner-producing plants - and that the new model (The LC250/Prado) was going to sell, at least to the US, far more units than LC 200s (or 300s for that matter if they hadn't discontinued it) were going to the US before discontinuation and changeover to 300 series production.

So, what has changed at Tahara and Hino or the other plants involved that can allow them to replace capacity for 3,000 200 series to the US market with what could be 30,000 or more LC Prados to the US Market? Or would you think that they'll curtail Prado deliveries to other markets to take advantage of US demand? Or curtail other models produced at these plants? My assumption was a ramp down of 4Runner production (moved to LatAm or North America) and a ramp up of "LC" (read Prado, LC250) deliveries to the US.

 

[ToyotaLandCruiser]

$5-10K market adjustment is nuts.

I was chatting with a salesperson at a Lexus dealer and they said they had a waitlist of 100 for the GX. They also mention "this is one of those vehicles you will see a $30k market adjustment". They went on to say they thought about buying one and flipping it.

I'll stick with the CPO market.