All I need is one solid 205mm tall rock drive over. One of them will, one won't. The Rav4 prime is also a lot faster. With the better power to weight ratio - it might be better in the sand than we think.
There's a lot more to being good off-road than the catalog of numbers and the LX is still a better vehicle for that in general. But the Rav4 will go down trails the LX can't without damaging the body. I'm mostly pointing out how compromised Toyota has made the LX. And in reality in the USA market - 85-90% are leased by the first owners and driven on asphalt only. Lessees don't modify them and they don't go off-road with them. It's made for the streets, not the trails. And there is no off road model in the USA. So, at least as far as north america is concerned, there's just no reason to sandbag the other models to protect a halo off-road model. The LX simply doesn't play in that market space even if it could with proper suspension and tires and is based on a model that does. The way Toyota brings it to the USA is targeted straight at city commuting, not playing in the dirt.
Sequoia probably wont' last past this generation is my guess. Sales are hard to know because Toyota isn't building enough. But I think they're outselling the LX by about 2:1 in the USA. After a big bump for 2021 with the new model, LX sales are down from the prior generation and the trends are down from there. With the new GX and TX - I think the Sequoia will outlive the LX in the USA. My guess is LX is gone in 5-7 years as sales drop below 1k per year. But, it's hard to really know because all of toyota's sales are slumping due to production. Either way, the LX will almost certainly not carry forward in a BOF version. Toyota has already said that all Lexus models will be EV only by 2030. There might be a "LX" nameplate on something like a RS1. But it won't be a BOF Land Cruiser variant. It'll be an EV skateboard with a SUV body.
Toyota has real problems with production. The idea that this will continue indefinitely where Toyota can under produce and increase margins is simply nonsense. The market is too competitive and others will fill the void with more competitive options as margins return to competitive levels. They already are. And it's not something Toyota can come back from without competing again on price.
I think the biggest open question we all keep circling is why there's going to be potentially 4 different SUVs that are all reskins of the same vehicle. And every one of them could be replaced by just selling the LC300 in the full range of trims from base to LX600. Toyota is going to a huge amount of work to recreate one product line that it already produces. And at the same time failing to have any meaningful range variation other than trim levels. It think the GX being a reskinned LC300 surprised a lot of us. It did for me. Same as the Tacoma sharing most of the LC300 underpinnings and having arguably better suspension. We knew the GX-F was going to unify the basic platform for everything. I certainly didn't expect it to mean that everything would actually be almost the same product. The 4Runner is still a big open question, so it'll be interesting to see if it really is another LC300 reskin or something smaller and lighter.
It will be interesting to see what happens when they go full EV in certain models going forward. The LX has so much potential honestly and for its price it could be way way better, even in its current platform. The same applies to the LC300.
The biggest market for the LX is the Middle East and the LX is a strong seller ( easily best in class ) At its peak it would average almost 50k unites yearly globally, and while that may not be even half of global LC200/LC300 sales, that is a very respectable number for a luxury vehicle of the LX price bracket. I don't see that changing anytime soon, though initially it seems what's crippling global LX sales at the moment is lack of inventory but the pace seems to be picking up slowly
I also don't see them forcing all electric vehicles on the Middle East in 10 years time so without a doubt the next gen LX will still get petrol variants. It is way too soon to be talking of an all electric only switch in the Middle East for cars like the LX, so Lexus being a global brand ( even though the name literally means Luxury imports to the US ) is going to have to cater to different markets.
I personally see room for another vehicle that is sort of equal to the LX/LS but not body on frame and that could potentially replace the LX in the US, if sales continue to be poor in the next few years.