When will Landcruiser prices spike? (2 Viewers)

[4wheelgreg]

Vehicles are usually the fastest devaluating asset you can own . Usually the global fuel market does have a affect on vehicle sales , now have this big push on climate change = stop building gas guzzlers and bottom falls out on big suv’s .
I don’t feel its going to be as big off a affect on the Land Cruiser right now since the 200 series is coming to a end .
I made money on my 2017 LC and I drove it for a year and still made 8k on it , I bought a dealer Demo at slow time of the year and got a great deal and sold it for 8k more than I paid for it .
I think all this Climate change talk will do much to the end of this market right now Toyota has timed it right , its the time to get a new 200 if you ever wanted one .
I would like to think the new 300 would be far superior to the 200 but most likely just have more technology and stuff to break ,

 

[NoTempoLimit]

I have a 100 Series (2006). I just did a search on Autotrader. Prices are WAY up from when I bought mine in 2019. One dealer has a 2007 with less than 28k miles and is asking $85k (!!!). I'm sure late model 200's are starting to go much higher. You can't get a new one.

Based on what I saw on AT, I have barely had any depreciation on my LC 100. It's nice to finally win one!

The current spike in gasoline prices (part market-driven, part manipulation) will affect the Landcruiser market, but not in the way most expect. I think it will drive the existing LC inventory up-market. Many intact good condition LC's will go from daily drivers to part-time pleasure use. Just like high-performance sports cars with poor fuel efficiency aren't a big economic issue when you don't drive them much.

Gas prices are predicted to spike to unheard of levels this summer due to excessive demand vs. supply. GasBuddy analysts are predicting $4/gal average for the U.S. ($7.50 in CA). I'm certainly not looking forward to this as it will affect me negatively.

But in commodities, the cure for high prices is high prices. There will be a huge push to expand supply in the fall of this year. The phrase "Hell to be paid" will be thrown about. Gas prices should begin dropping in 2023 and continue to do so going below todays levels, but never getting back to 2019 levels.

Unless we begin upgrading the electrical grid and electric generation capacity NOW, the increasing adoption of EV's will strain the grid. There won't be enough charging capacity. Most politicans don't understand the different between charging an iPhone and charging a 100KWh EV. They think it just happen by magic.

P.S. I started driving in the '80's. In the early part of the decade one of the cheapest cars you could buy was an early '70's American muscle car. No one wanted them as they were seen as gas-guzzlers. If I'd had a place to store one, it would have been a great investment. History rhymes.

 

[scottm]

My main reluctance to buy a LC was that they lost $40k in value first year. I was looking at each year, debating how new or old to buy, but no way getting a new one based on that loss of value. Ended up putting my name on a 2021 enroute from Japan, before Toyota officially announced discontinuing. By the time it got here, there was a frenzy. I was travelling, by the time I got to the dealership to see it, I knew it wouldn't be losing $40k in value driving it off the lot.

I'm driving the wheels of this thing, not planning to sell. But I do think I'll be able to sell it at a good price any time in the next several years if I choose. Beyond a few years, anyone who claims they know how they will hold value, is guessing.

 

[4wheelgreg]

Just seen someone in NJ has there 2020 heritage for 140k has 6k on it but there still smoking crack !
Cars were the fastest devaluating asset you could own until 2021 .
I rotated 3 newer low milage vehicles including the wifes 2019 LC200 , got over 20k more than I paid for for that , she was not using , I still have my 2020 LC200 was offered stupid money from original dealer .
I never paid more 79k for any of my land crusier , last year was the perfect storm for the land cruiser .
I made money on all vehicles , I’m where I need to be right now with my fleet , would not pay the over inflated prices these LC200‘s are bringing .
Can only image what the LC300 will be , the new grand wagoneer is now starting at 75k and the LC 200 is way better than that .
I just picked up a new TRD Pro 4unner , no mark up and it was MSRP 56k and its a great vehicles but even just , no mark ups or price adjustment rip off dealers .
If your buying a LC200 now I don’t feel they are going up in value in my world .

 

[Tex68w]

I have a feeling the current inflated values will hold for a bit but only due to the new car shortage and the fact that we aren't receiving the 300 here in the states. It's a horrible time for dems to continue to play games with anything economy related and that includes fuel prices given that it's a midterm year. If fuel prices do go up another 25-40% this year then you will certainly start to see those used car prices drop some in general.

 

[NoTempoLimit]

...now have this big push on climate change = stop building gas guzzlers and bottom falls out on big suv’s ....

If you have a really rapid increase in fuel prices, like what happened in 2008, you'll get a temporary crash in the value of large/heavy SUV. It will be like South Park where the best place to hide was at the Hummer dealer...

What happened in 2008 was market manipulation by the big investment banks (read "Griftopia:" by Matt Taibbi) and prices came right back down. The current situation is similar. Fuel prices will come down, but we won't see the 2020 lows again, and we likely won't even see the 2019 prices. Inflation is sticky.

As the naturally aspirated V8 SUV's are discontinued, the remaining ones will rise in value. A fuel efficient engine is not that different from a high horsepower engine. They are more costly, complex, highly stressed and require much more maintenance.

A direct injected twin turbo V6 will easily match the torque and HP of a V8 with 50% more displacement. They will do so using less fuel in normal driving and the new ones don't even have turbo lag. My 330 HP twin-turbo straight-6 BMW got 28 MPG highway. And that was a mid-2000's engine design.

But just after your warranty expires the check engine light comes on and you are told you need to have the intake manifold pulled to walnut blast the carbon off the intake valves ($1500+). And at some point you'll have to replace both turbos. Oh, BTW, all 6 fuel injectors need to be replaced again too.

So you can pay now in small increments (higher fuel consumption) or pay later in one big lump sum (major maintenance expense). TANSTAFL

 

[bloc]

Toyotas at least won’t have the intake valve clogging issue due to also using port injection on their direct-injected gasoline engines.

Otherwise I mostly agree. Pay now (fuel costs) or later (turbo replacements because the wastegate simply wore out, or electronic thermostat, or hpfp, or.. etc)

Fuel costs are a large part of why my build stays mild. Plus an honest appraisal of how hard I want to push things 1000+ miles from home.

 

[NoTempoLimit]

Toyotas at least won’t have the intake valve clogging issue due to also using port injection on their direct-injected gasoline engines.

IF I had the funds, I would certainly consider an LC powered by Toyota's new twin-turbo V6 for precisely that reason. On my wife's VW Jetta, a straight-4, the cost to clean the intake valves was $1100+ at an Indy VW specialist (dealer wanted $1600). I was able to get the BMW N54 straight-6 valves cleaned for $350 on a group buy, but that was a one-time thing and the small Indy that did the work wasn't around a few years later.

The thing that sucks about direct injection only is that there is practically nothing you can do to avoid the problem. Highway driving and frequent oil changes will extend the time but at least every 50k miles you'll need to have the manifold pulled.

My LC has the 2UZ-FE. I don't think there will ever be a million-mile turbo engine. It it just not in the nature of things.

 

[bloc]

My LC has the 2UZ-FE. I don't think there will ever be a million-mile turbo engine. It it just not in the nature of things.

I agree. It’s the nature of over 5.7L levels of power and torque through a 3.5L platform. Yeah things have come a long way from the 80s but it’s not like the 3UR was developed before manufacturers knew how to balance durability against power levels. I don’t doubt the 3.5L block can go pretty far but it’ll most likely need some expensive parts like turbos thrown at it to keep it on the road.

Decisions like the injection strategy mentioned above are part of why I believe toyota will do this better than most, but there are still some hard truths at play here. There is too much market pressure toward power figures and fuel efficiency, and not nearly enough for million-mile gasoline engine levels of durability. Especially with BEV dominance on the horizon.

So I don’t blame them. I just need to keep my 200 on the road and find a daily that I enjoy driving and isn’t horribly expensive to operate. At some point the fuel and other costs of my 200 will push me toward whatever electric solution has been developed for the way I travel. I’m just fine being a late adopter.

I anticipate myself posting many “how-to replace xxxx” threads in this section…

 

[highfructose]

I think the land cruiser/lx570 will do a bit better than the Fj cruiser and excursion did once they were discontinued…i think fuel price concerns won’t affect them much. Land cruisers are aspirational vehicles for many.

I think there will be a significant chunk of the generation that came of age following 9/11 and then in the Great Recession that will be seeking out vehicle purchases that they view as stable investments…a significant enough chunk to eat up the small amount of 200’s that were produced.

I see people driving land cruisers from the 70’s, 80’s, and 90’s. You could purchase a simple million mile v8 land cruiser and never purchase another suv/truck if necessary. It’s a good hedge vehicle. As their prices drop down to around the price of a new camry, I think the price will tend to stop around there.

 

[highfructose]

I agree. It’s the nature of over 5.7L levels of power and torque through a 3.5L platform. Yeah things have come a long way from the 80s but it’s not like the 3UR was developed before manufacturers knew how to balance durability against power levels. I don’t doubt the 3.5L block can go pretty far but it’ll most likely need some expensive parts like turbos thrown at it to keep it on the road.

Decisions like the injection strategy mentioned above are part of why I believe toyota will do this better than most, but there are still some hard truths at play here. There is too much market pressure toward power figures and fuel efficiency, and not nearly enough for million-mile gasoline engine levels of durability. Especially with BEV dominance on the horizon.

So I don’t blame them. I just need to keep my 200 on the road and find a daily that I enjoy driving and isn’t horribly expensive to operate. At some point the fuel and other costs of my 200 will push me toward whatever electric solution has been developed for the way I travel. I’m just fine being a late adopter.

I anticipate myself posting many “how-to replace xxxx” threads in this section…

200 as a primary vehicle is tough.

Having it as a second vehicle is ideal…a good complement to it is a sports car with a simple v8 and a manual transmission. You really get the best of both worlds that way. After driving the sports car for a while and I hop into the 200, the sound deadening and comfort is stark…then after driving the 200 all weekend, the scoot and the rumble of the v8 sports car is great.

A challenger with a 5.7 gets 27 on the highway. A corvette gets 29.

 

[DBULL]

High gas prices aren’t the end of the world in the overall scheme of owning an automobile.You have drivers dropping $6-$8 hundred on a a car payment and fretting over a couple hundred In fuel costs.Being retired I don’t drive enough to worry about it and the pleasure of driving my 06 LX far outweighs its cost of operation.This will probably be the last vehicle that I buy.

 

[stonepa]

Honestly, if you own your vehicle, gas prices and fuel mileage are irrelevant. Even refilling my LC twice week, it is still less costly than the lease payment on a Subaru. However, if you are in debt for the vehicle then you may have a problem. But then again you may have over bought and can’t afford the vehicle in the first place.

 

[04UZJ100]

Honestly, if you own your vehicle, gas prices and fuel mileage are irrelevant. Even refilling my LC twice week, it is still less costly than the lease payment on a Subaru. However, if you are in debt for the vehicle then you may have a problem. But then again you may have over bought and can’t afford the vehicle in the first place.

Speaking about 95% of the population there…..

You mean my 12 year 8% note on my cars is bad????

 

[LCHOU]

seems LC prices took a jump again in recent week. I was looking at a 2018 with only 8K miles for $85K. That appears to be a good deal at this point.

 

[txtortoise]

seems LC prices took a jump again in recent week. I was looking at a 2018 with only 8K miles for $85K. That appears to be a good deal at this point.

Manheim wholesale has the LX 2018 in the $65-75K range.
The LC 200 is in the mid-70s with 40-50K miles. Two Texas trucks went for $71K and $76K, 55k and 30k miles, respectively in December.

 

[Tex68w]

Book trade value on a 2020 Cruiser with 30K miles at the moment here in Texas is $86,375-$91,225, that's definitely more in line with what I am seeing them sell for which is a few thousand over those numbers. A 2021 Cruiser with 20K miles shows a book trade value of $97,115-$102,495. These are base models, not HE's.

 

[JAS4]

Great. Now how am I supposed to feel comfortable using the hell out of it? I'm starting to fear it being wrecked or stolen now. Certainly don't want to be left without the unobtainium. Sheesh.

 

[Boonedock40]

Purchased my 15 w 90k for 40k a year ago. Just offered 48k now with 135k….gonna hold.

 

[bemerritt]

Purchased my 15 w 90k for 40k a year ago. Just offered 48k now with 135k….gonna hold.

More impressed you put on 45k in a year!