The COVID Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter JohnVee
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One thing of note is that I have read that the NCDHHS has targeted some "hotbed" areas for testing in recent weeks. IF that is true, and the % positive has remained flat, that is good news. However, it does not explain the increased hospitalization. Interesting theory that folks coming in for some other procedure may test positive, and then get added into the metric - sounds a lot like classifying all deaths that test positive as being caused by Covid19. Would the patients have been hospitalized had they not already been going there for some other procedure? I don't know the answer and, unfortunately, the way the metrics are being reported are anything but clear. Another question I have is if they've lowered the symptom threshold for admitting patients? How many of these hospitilizations required ICU care? What is the average length of the hospital stay? Lots of questions have to be answered IMO, before we can really draw conclusions.
I'm not one pushing for opening the flood gates by any means, but there's a lot of issues with the data. Thanks for posting that JC.
I'm not one pushing for opening the flood gates by any means, but there's a lot of issues with the data. Thanks for posting that JC.
Can you provide any references to read up on the statements you're making above? It's good to be skeptical, but saying you can't draw conclusions from the data because you have questions about it is not.
Mostly, I've been following a thread on a sports forum. In this thread, there are 2 doctors that are helping make heads or tales of the metrics. They have pointed out a glaring discrepancy in the death reporting where data dumps are reported. In other words, if data is released on a Wednesday, a death that occurred the previous Friday might be included in the Wednesday number. Also, the percentage of hospitals reporting in NC is really low. Another issue is some testing sites that only include a raw number for positive results, not a number for totals tests administered.
The "hotbed" testing I was referring to earlier is mostly referencing nursing homes and prisons. There have been several articles that mention things such as:
"NCDHHS Sec. Mandy Cohen says nursing home tests are prioritized at the state lab, and when a nursing home has an outbreak they are trying to test people with and without symptoms."
I think my questions are valid around hospitalizations, because it appears ICU admits has remained relatively flat while overall hospitalizations has increased significantly. My personal theory is that the hospitals are admitting more people with "mild" Covid symptoms than back in March/April when there was a bigger fear around capacity. Anyone is open to draw their own conclusions, but to me the way the data has been handled by the State is anything but clear. I'd like more context around the metrics:
It's not a pretty picture, I'd just like there to be more transparency in the reporting.
The "hotbed" testing I was referring to earlier is mostly referencing nursing homes and prisons. There have been several articles that mention things such as:
"NCDHHS Sec. Mandy Cohen says nursing home tests are prioritized at the state lab, and when a nursing home has an outbreak they are trying to test people with and without symptoms."
I think my questions are valid around hospitalizations, because it appears ICU admits has remained relatively flat while overall hospitalizations has increased significantly. My personal theory is that the hospitals are admitting more people with "mild" Covid symptoms than back in March/April when there was a bigger fear around capacity. Anyone is open to draw their own conclusions, but to me the way the data has been handled by the State is anything but clear. I'd like more context around the metrics:
It's not a pretty picture, I'd just like there to be more transparency in the reporting.
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You've got to assume that the hospitals don't have the infrastructure, staffing, or procedures to report cases with 100% accuracy on a daily basis. Batching reports out is expected to some extent, and doesn't indicate some conspiracy, at least to me. It indicates to me inefficiencies in healthcare accounting and reporting that have existed forever. They're just now being emphasized now when our data-hungry and often highly educated users of said data are looking for updates as soon as a change occurs, often multiple times per day. This isn't some singular data-focused IT company reporting shareholder data. These are overwhelmed doctors, nurses, and likely overwhelmed IT staff trying to report data as a secondary task. Their primary task is trying to save people while keeping safe themselves.
As for classifying cases, I have a lot of the same questions, but it's more of a curiosity. I've posted studies showing how cases and deaths are likely under reported all over the country, so the same skepticism could have a very different result. The WoW (week over week) averages tell the story as good as it needs to be told from my perspective. The situation is not getting better, and that's the conclusion that needs to be taken from this.
5 years from now studies will come out showing the best data, with the best conclusions. Can't write a book report on a book that isn't written yet.
As for classifying cases, I have a lot of the same questions, but it's more of a curiosity. I've posted studies showing how cases and deaths are likely under reported all over the country, so the same skepticism could have a very different result. The WoW (week over week) averages tell the story as good as it needs to be told from my perspective. The situation is not getting better, and that's the conclusion that needs to be taken from this.
5 years from now studies will come out showing the best data, with the best conclusions. Can't write a book report on a book that isn't written yet.
Are you assuming I'm implying a conspiracy theory because I want context with the data? I'm not. I'm more concerned with core competence than anything else. When a daily trending report doesn't reflect the correct date of death due to process issue (data dumps), then it's almost useless. On the forum I mentioned earlier, one guy is tracking it himself by taking the reported date of death, and correlating the actual date of death, and updating his own chart. Why isn't the state doing that (maybe they are now, full disclosure I haven't looked recently)?
NC hospital reporting is not good and needs to be corrected so we can trust the data (good, bad, or ugly). This article is about a month old, but points out the very same sort of "underreporting" issues you mentioned above:
"Novant Health’s Forsyth Medical Center has 865 licensed beds, making it the state’s third largest hospital. The facility failed to respond to the survey on seven different days last month, including over Easter. That weekend saw a precipitous decline in the number of reported hospitalizations, which hit the lowest point in days."
Without the above information, you'd think the cases were dropping that week - fantastic! Well, until you have the context, and then, not so much. I'm just saying we need consistency and *'s with the data (when it's called for).
I'm a mask wearer. I've yet eaten inside a restaurant. We are still trying to really limit our trips into the public. I haven't ridden in a car with anyone besides Emma in months....
I am a proponent of a controlled, data-driven approach to both policy and process to keep us all safe. But I also think the data at this point is so jacked, it's hard to extrapolate anything definitive. Personally, I don't don't feel confident we know if we are overreacting, underreacting, or right on target.
NC hospital reporting is not good and needs to be corrected so we can trust the data (good, bad, or ugly). This article is about a month old, but points out the very same sort of "underreporting" issues you mentioned above:
"Novant Health’s Forsyth Medical Center has 865 licensed beds, making it the state’s third largest hospital. The facility failed to respond to the survey on seven different days last month, including over Easter. That weekend saw a precipitous decline in the number of reported hospitalizations, which hit the lowest point in days."
Without the above information, you'd think the cases were dropping that week - fantastic! Well, until you have the context, and then, not so much. I'm just saying we need consistency and *'s with the data (when it's called for).
I'm a mask wearer. I've yet eaten inside a restaurant. We are still trying to really limit our trips into the public. I haven't ridden in a car with anyone besides Emma in months....
I am a proponent of a controlled, data-driven approach to both policy and process to keep us all safe. But I also think the data at this point is so jacked, it's hard to extrapolate anything definitive. Personally, I don't don't feel confident we know if we are overreacting, underreacting, or right on target.
:/ no, my intent was not to say you're a conspiracy theorist. Hate you took it that way. My intent was to say that yes, you're right, there are problems with reporting. Bringing up studies articulating under-reporting, as compared to your research indicating over-reporting, was intended to convey exactly that.
My point though, is that despite theoretical (or actual) issues with data reporting, it's as close as we're going to get right now. Hopefully it improves, but that's beside the point. Reporting inaccuracies should trigger a willingness to over-react, not to question the validity of actions that are being taken.
It is s***ty that we don't have perfect data, but there's nothing we can do about it, other than continue to take precautions.
My point though, is that despite theoretical (or actual) issues with data reporting, it's as close as we're going to get right now. Hopefully it improves, but that's beside the point. Reporting inaccuracies should trigger a willingness to over-react, not to question the validity of actions that are being taken.
It is s***ty that we don't have perfect data, but there's nothing we can do about it, other than continue to take precautions.
I agree, with the caveat that we shouldn't accept the status quo of the reporting. Myself included here, we should all let our leadership know that we want prioritization of the way the data is collected, analyzed and reported. There's nothing more important right now, even the monumental discussions and activity around civil rights, if we are all sick, dieing, losing our jobs, and watching our education system and economy suffer. Hire that IT company... augment the hospitial staffs with staticians, etc etc. There's no better use of taxpayer money right now, in my opinion, then ensuring the data that decides what normal life is, is accurate.
***Just one dude's opinion, who doesn't think his is any more valid or important than the next. I hope I don't come off as preachy or closed-minded, something I've been working on***
Fort Knox
SILVER Star
While I obviously wish we were talking about a different subject matter, I do think both of you are making excellent points.
On a related note, it's interesting to note that certain folks in high places seem to think the answer to improving/lowering the stats is LESS testing. I guess that's one way to get the number of reported cases down.
On a related note, it's interesting to note that certain folks in high places seem to think the answer to improving/lowering the stats is LESS testing. I guess that's one way to get the number of reported cases down.
While I obviously wish we were talking about a different subject matter, I do think both of you are making excellent points.
On a related note, it's interesting to note that certain folks in high places seem to think the answer to improving/lowering the stats is LESS testing. I guess that's one way to get the number of reported cases down.
Yeah.... I'll leave it at that.
I've been watching the %positive more than anything. But, again, if you target congregate areas with a higher density of testing than general population, the data again is skewed. I get why they are doing it, but how hard is it to make a column for targeted test for a check box to be able to separate the metrics if you want?
And recent studies out of China are showing that antibody levels drop as much as 70% in 3 months time - that's not encouraging.
JToobe
SILVER Star
This got real last Thursday when we learned that my wife's brother and his wife got positive test results....we were with him the previous Saturday and i had some stomach issues Wednesday evening that are consistent with some of the symptoms. Wife and I got tested Friday and I continued to have headaches, metallic taste in mouth and feeling run down. Isolated myself from rest of family. Wife got negative results Monday night, I got negative results late yesterday afternoon thankfully so must have had some stomach bug/flu. Brother in law and his wife doing well in quarantine at home, very mild symptoms thankfully.
Wake up call to continue to be vigilant/careful with contact with others. Chick-fil-A has ordered over 700k washable masks in 4 designs/patterns from us for all their locations to start shipping out in next 10 days. Four masks for full time employee, less for part time. Masks to be replaced after 60 days with new ones. They expect to be wearing masks thru end of year at minimum and most likely til next spring......
Wake up call to continue to be vigilant/careful with contact with others. Chick-fil-A has ordered over 700k washable masks in 4 designs/patterns from us for all their locations to start shipping out in next 10 days. Four masks for full time employee, less for part time. Masks to be replaced after 60 days with new ones. They expect to be wearing masks thru end of year at minimum and most likely til next spring......
Did anyone have "French Broad runs red" on their 2020 bingo card?
Campbell’s soup is on the way to can their tomato soup. What is going on?
Leak from a business in town, not sure what is is, though.
S4Cruiser
SILVER Star
morgue? Blood? That looks not good. Wow.
Update - it's a dye used to find leaks. Bad news - that's a really big leak.
lt1fire
SILVER Star
Another neat update - Norfolk Southern was doing the testing and it is rhodamine dye. I learnt somethin' today.
I mean the French Broad is filth. The sooner they find leaks, sewer or chemical, the better. Rhodamine is apparently safe for aquatic flora and fauna but I don't know at what amounts, just light reading.
