The Car Care Nut talks UR V8 blown head gaskets

[2021 LC200]

Well, it's not 380, but it's a start. Digging through the many threads here for those us that have experienced blown 200 series headgaskets. Hopefully, they chime in on that database form that was just created in the other thread.

Screen name/model year

wildyoats 2013
surfingpl 2013
jeep2cruiser 2014
vincentdevries 2011
shajbot 2013
comox 2013
YellowG 2014
TTO5 2010
alexvallorosi 2009
bentonrover 2008
570lemur 2008
fountainhead 2010
Bryanmc 2010
RTK 2013
bohdi11 2011
lcgeek 2008
RCCKY 2014
art5519 2009
Atwalz 2013
KyleLyle17 2014
AeroAggie 2010
jmw101 ?

Yes, but these 22 case mostly have contributing factors so there is no way we get to 380. You need an order of magnitude more if not a larger sample set to start paying attention to this when the true maintenance background is unknown (i.e. all second hand vehicles).

Just consider there are around 1.75 million 3UR-FE's on the road between US & Canada so these number of cases are not even a drop on a hot plate.

 

[2021 LC200]

But who declared the amazing 380 and why?

I know of statistics to some degree with a masters in engineering. I would have to google to find references. All in all a lot more failure cases are needed without knowing the full vehicle history to start proofing a point. Those who think a few cases proof something need to come off that horse.

 

[dudemancool1904]

Is 380 a statistical thing? Like a percentage of cars sold between 2008-2014?

 

[2021 LC200]

Open to an expert in statistics to shine additional light on this. Whether 380 without other contributing factors is the magic number I am not 100% sure. I am using this number based on work I saw during my career on researching a similar aspect, however with around 1.75 million 3UR-FE’s on the road my main point is you need quite a lot of cases to get away from random mistakes during manufacturing or labeling it a design flaw.

 

[xeuxaz]

Nothing wrong with collecting the data and grouping together the facts and solutions. It’s easy to dismiss it as “a non issue” when it hasn’t happened to you.

The thread I started isn’t just focused on the problem but also collecting how long the repair took, what was done, and the total cost.

Instead of defending it, maybe we double down on possible solutions or preventative measures.

 

[woody]

Take the junior high comments to social medio....

 

[linuxgod]

why not 580 or 1080?

Because math

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I don’t know what inputs are generally used for something like this, but if the total population of vehicles is 100,000 then at 95% confidence you need 383 vehicles before the issue is considered statistically significant.

Maybe 100,000 is a generally accepted number or maybe it’s an estimate of the total LC/LX production?

 

[gray rider]

383/100,000 = 0.00383. Why not 5000 for 5% and subsequently 95% confidence??. (FWIW, I'm just a structural guy, not a statistician nor a mathematician. Please school me....)

 

[2021 LC200]

Because math

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I don’t know what inputs are generally used for something like this, but if the total population of vehicles is 100,000 then at 95% confidence you need 383 vehicles before the issue is considered statistically significant.

Maybe 100,000 is a generally accepted number or maybe it’s an estimate of the total LC/LX production?

383/100,000 = 0.00383. Why not 5000 for 5% and subsequently 95% confidence??. (FWIW, I'm just a structural guy, not a statistician nor a mathematician. Please school me....)

Well, this is why statistics or quantative reasoning is more than just making up a percentage or a number. Even when the population is much bigger than 100k (i.e. there are around 1.75 million 3UR-FE's between US & Canada and the Sequoia/Tundra/200 series) the amount of well documented cases does not need to increase much (that calculator shows 385 at 1.75 million population). I would expect though that we never get to 383 cases without other contributing factors such as poor maintenance, high mileage, many short drives/cold starts.

 

[gray rider]

I had confidence that you would clarify the 383/385 number. Though I still do not know why...???

 

[gray rider]

I believe!

 

[2021 LC200]

Part of structural engineering addresses asset integrity and inspection requirements. I would expect quantitave reasoning to be a key part of that. Maybe time to dig out those old books or search the internet and provide us further insights.

 

[gray rider]

All I know is "MC/I" and "P/A"!

 

[gray rider]

But your point is well taken....

 

[rexington14]

Well, this is why statistics or quantative reasoning is more than just making up a percentage or a number. Even when the population is much bigger than 100k (i.e. there are around 1.75 million 3UR-FE's between US & Canada and the Sequoia/Tundra/200 series) the amount of well documented cases does not need to increase much (that calculator shows 385 at 1.75 million population). I would expect though that we never get to 383 cases without other contributing factors such as poor maintenance, high mileage, many short drives/cold starts.

Operating under these conditions isn't really unique to 3URs in a 200 series.

Blaming failures on commonly encountered factors does little more than illustrate that Toyota has indeed missed the mark on this platform's durability. Which doesn't mean it's unreliable - but being a Toyota the standards and expectations are high. A quick and easy comparison is the 1GR and 2GR engines which were mass produced alongside the 3UR yet they don't see nearly as many issues overall.

 

[linuxgod]

I had confidence that you would clarify the 383/385 number. Though I still do not know why...???

Statistics don’t mirror sensible math.

 

[nicoparren]

He is sincere. I had a very recent conversation with Ahmed (The Car Care Nut) about my situation (blown engine). We discussed various options. During our conversation, he mentioned this and said to stay tuned for the YouTube video we're all discussing. I found him to be very sincere and kind during our chat. I could sense he felt really bad for me and the situation we're in with our beloved 200. I was shocked he actually called me but he did. And he made sure I understood what my options were and he took the time really explain things. Outside of YouTube, he's the same guy we watch on YouTube. Such a nice and genuine person.

Guy

What were the signs and symptoms of your blown engine? I'm going to Ahmed on Friday in hopes that's at the minimum, what I have is only a coolant valley leak.

 

[2021 LC200]

Operating under these conditions isn't really unique to 3URs in a 200 series.

Blaming failures on commonly encountered factors does little more than illustrate that Toyota has indeed missed the mark on this platform's durability. Which doesn't mean it's unreliable - but being a Toyota the standards and expectations are high. A quick and easy comparison is the 1GR and 2GR engines which were mass produced alongside the 3UR yet they don't see nearly as many issues overall.

My main point is poor maintenance as a contributing factor.

You have the numbers to proof these claims? I also read 1 GR and 2UZ have issues.

 

[04UZJ100]

You have the numbers to proof these claims?

It’s true. The 1GR really has no issues. 2UZ too. Both more reliable than 3UR.

 

[cuzzi]

Well, it's not 380, but it's a start. Digging through the many threads here for those us that have experienced blown 200 series headgaskets. Hopefully, they chime in on that database form that was just created in the other thread.

Screen name/model year

wildyoats 2013
surfingpl 2013
jeep2cruiser 2014
vincentdevries 2011
shajbot 2013
comox 2013
YellowG 2014
TTO5 2010
alexvallorosi 2009
bentonrover 2008
570lemur 2008
fountainhead 2010
Bryanmc 2010
RTK 2013
bohdi11 2011
lcgeek 2008
RCCKY 2014
art5519 2009
Atwalz 2013
KyleLyle17 2014
AeroAggie 2010
jmw101 ?

You can add me to this list.

2013 LC with 195k miles. Had the valley leak last year which was repaired within a week. HG issue started last week with misfires in cylinder 1.

Shop wants to replace all timing components while the engine is torn apart just for preventative measures.