This forum is incredible, for info and people like this ^^^
LX 470 vs Landcruiser: Values According to Joe
- Thread starter jhanley
- Start date
This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate
links, including eBay, Amazon, Skimlinks, and others.
This forum is incredible, for info and people like this ^^^
When I was researching a possible purchase, it seemed location was as or more important than condition. The LC/LX seems to be more popular some parts of the country than it is in others. On any given day on my local Craigslist, there may be 3 or less LC's or LX's. If someone has a good one around here, I imagine they can sell it for well above the norm. Sure, you might find a cheaper one in California, but getting it to Pittsburgh will cost quite a bit. So, if you had one for sale here, I would guess you could ask top dollar. I was fortunate in that I wasn't even looking for one. Mine found me. It wasn't until I was offered the chance to buy it that I researched and found out how good of a vehicle it is.
TexasCrane, you did say your model was a linear extrapolation, but perhaps did you have any correction or adjustment for the step in prices that '06 and '07 models see? They are more sought after for some nice upgrades.
How much is mine worth: '06 @ 91k miles. Completely immaculate/stock with full 90k service just done.
How much is mine worth: '06 @ 91k miles. Completely immaculate/stock with full 90k service just done.
It is a linear model, however I treated model year as a categorical variable rather than a numeric one. So instead of a $x price increase for each incremental year, there is an independent price adjustment being made by year. So for instance, an '04 has a price adjustment of $5505, an '05 is $6860, an '06 is $9693, and an '07 is $13724. So you can see that the price jumps for the '06 and '07 are larger than the jump from an '04 to an '05.
The formula is basically:
$21741 + (miles/10,000) * -564.68 + year_adjustment + LX470_adjustment
The year and LX470 adjustments come from the table that I previously posted. It's the first number in each row. So the formula for your vehicle would be:
$21741 + 9.1 * -564.68 + $9693.43 + $648.82
Which comes out to: $26,945
Price trends, formulas, and predictions can be drawn but the price that an individual vehicle (or anything) ultimately brings right now is what a buyer pays. Economics is not a science, there are too many subjective variables. The sticker price on a "new" vehicle is a good example. Remember the pet rock, cabbage patch dolls, Hummers, Deloreans, and today's old collectibles? The price we pay for something right now is probably not what it will sell for an hour later. If Toyota stopped making Land Cruisers, for example, what might that event do to prices? Impossible to ever "know" the monetary value of things.
I agree that it's fun and useful to make observations. We have to follow some kind of reasoning so why not what everybody else seems to be doing?
I agree that it's fun and useful to make observations. We have to follow some kind of reasoning so why not what everybody else seems to be doing?
WOW! Just read this whole thread!
TONS of great info!
I have been looking for an 06 LX 470 for about a month now with LOW miles ideally from a dry climate.
I've missed out on a couple good deals...
Even found one with under 40K on it BUT the guy thinks it's worth 37K. Got pissed off when I offered 28K.
I keep checking car fax, cars.com, autotrader & eBay. Hopefully I will find my perfect LX soon!!!
My wife thinks I'm silly replacing my 08 Wrangler Rubicon UL as a secondary car (I have owned since new) with a used car that's older but she doesn't get it... The jeep has been fun, it looks BAD AZZ (I did it up) but I NEVER go truly off reading so time to get into something more comfortable with more long term durability.
PS This forum is GREAT! Tons of great info in the FAQ which saved me from asking lots of ?s
TONS of great info!
I have been looking for an 06 LX 470 for about a month now with LOW miles ideally from a dry climate.
I've missed out on a couple good deals...
Even found one with under 40K on it BUT the guy thinks it's worth 37K. Got pissed off when I offered 28K.
I keep checking car fax, cars.com, autotrader & eBay. Hopefully I will find my perfect LX soon!!!
My wife thinks I'm silly replacing my 08 Wrangler Rubicon UL as a secondary car (I have owned since new) with a used car that's older but she doesn't get it... The jeep has been fun, it looks BAD AZZ (I did it up) but I NEVER go truly off reading so time to get into something more comfortable with more long term durability.
PS This forum is GREAT! Tons of great info in the FAQ which saved me from asking lots of ?s
lol...Mine didnt get it either. I sold my 02 Xterra and got a 01 LC. She didnt get why i ALWAYS wanted one and why its cost what it did for being so old. I think she 'gets it' now...
my gf was at a Lamborghini showroom for a work event. Lambo guy asked her "so what is your ideal car?" she answered "1996 80 Series Toyota Landcruiser". guy was dumbfounded. I was so excited when she told me
Put a ring on that stat.
Do you happen to have an updated formula fir 2006 LX 470 fir today (2019)? I drove one with 124k miles and the dealer is asking $19k. Looks good but drives with noise. No record of water pump or timing belts being replaced. Should I trust such vehicle? Clean Carfax though.FWIW, I had some spare time today and scraped some data off of cars.com and conducted an analysis similar to re_guardian's.
There were 245 LX470's and 158 LC's available nationwide. I fit a linear regression model to the data using mileage, year, and LC/LX to predict price. The net of it was that the model is pretty good, with those 3 variables explaining 87% of the variance in the price. All things being equal, an LX sells for approximately $650 more than a LC.
So for example my model predicts that a 2005 LC with 100k miles should sell for $22915 and a 2005 LX470 with 100k miles should sell for $23564.
For anybody that's interested:
Code:#miles are in units of 10k Call: lm(formula = prices ~ miles + year + type, data = cars) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -5082.1 -1456.3 -247.7 1215.5 13528.4 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 21741.61 875.99 24.819 < 2e-16 *** miles -568.68 33.78 -16.833 < 2e-16 *** year1999 -2106.54 660.78 -3.188 0.00155 ** year2000 -1143.82 642.27 -1.781 0.07570 . year2001 81.49 681.49 0.120 0.90488 year2002 789.37 670.17 1.178 0.23957 year2003 3676.89 745.74 4.931 1.21e-06 *** year2004 5505.77 676.98 8.133 5.62e-15 *** year2005 6860.94 708.90 9.678 < 2e-16 *** year2006 9693.43 666.53 14.543 < 2e-16 *** year2007 13724.17 831.12 16.513 < 2e-16 *** typeLX470 648.82 252.14 2.573 0.01044 * --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 2349 on 391 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 0.8762, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8727 F-statistic: 251.6 on 11 and 391 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16 #example predicted prices miles year type predicted_price 1 10 2005 LX470 23564.61 2 10 2005 Land Cruiser 22915.79
Thanks in advance.
I'm in the market right now, looking for 2003 - 2007 LC or LX, searching nationwide. I am generally seeing higher prices for LC with some crazy outliers for unusually low mileage ones. For example '05 LC with 95k mi for $33k, '05 LC with 50k mi for $32k. My ideal is '06 or '07 with less than 150k mi. I've found one, have had the PPI done, and hope to work out a deal today.
I like how this entire post is about justifying buying an LX470 instead of a LC. That should tell you why the LC is more expensive.
Let me know how much you paid . I am in the market as well. Thanks