LX 470 vs Landcruiser: Values According to Joe

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tmoore41 said:
Not so sure about all of the above. YES I know it is an 80. Yes I had been looking for a 100. I got involved in this thread because my search for an 80 led me to 100s which led me to Lx470s (found more available). And yes I overpaid to an extent. Just FYI, the guy took my trade for a great price and now I don't have to sell it myself. Also this LC is the cleanest of all I looked at (80s and 100s and both lx). We also needed to dump the trade ASAP. Plus the guy agreed to fix anything minor that shows up in the PPI (already is fixing a few things (seat tracks, rear window arms, and power steering) . Also let me drive it 100 miles home to take to mechanic of my choice. If something is major wrong he agreed to pay for PPI and give me my car back (I havnt actually paid him the difference yet). Also it does NOT have lockers. That's a value factor if I resell. I'm not that interested in the lockers for this vehicle. Actually do Need 4x4, but no crazy stuff in mind. Again why I was looking a little more into 100s. I also looked enough vehicles that were shady and dealt with a bunch of dirty sellers. Finally found one I fealt good about and paid a little more for that.

Finally, whether or not I am a fool or overpaid - I have learned a lot from this forum and several others on IH8MUD, - thanks for all the help, and if I end up keeping the 95 (it's an 80 series by the way) I will continue to rely on all of yall for help. by far the best resource I have found for any vehicle.
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Many times the same people to call someone a "fool" for overpaying think they get a great deal when they buy a rock bottom priced rig for say $5k that needs $10k in work (they're typically also the people that call you an idiot for taking your truck to a shop instead of rebuilding engines in your garage since you can just watch a youtube video and do it yourself). Personally I'd rather pay a fair to premium price for a truck with a great history that I can just drive and know it's good to go and I won't have to sink a ton of money into it. There's also a lot of value into being able to trade something that would be difficult to sell on your own. I used to have a BMW X5 that I was ecstatic to trade in so I wouldn't have to deal with it any more lol.
 
Just FYI, the guy took my trade for a great price and now I don't have to sell it myself. Also this LC is the cleanest of all I looked at (80s and 100s and both lx). We also needed to dump the trade ASAP. Plus the guy agreed to fix anything minor that shows up in the PPI (already is fixing a few things (seat tracks, rear window arms, and power steering) . Also let me drive it 100 miles home to take to mechanic of my choice. If something is major wrong he agreed to pay for PPI and give me my car back (I havnt actually paid him the difference yet).

Finally, whether or not I am a fool or overpaid --

There is significant value in feeling good about and trusting the seller. Congratulation on your "new" Land Cruiser.
 
smoothcruiser said:
Just FYI, the guy took my trade for a great price and now I don't have to sell it myself. Also this LC is the cleanest of all I looked at (80s and 100s and both lx). We also needed to dump the trade ASAP. Plus the guy agreed to fix anything minor that shows up in the PPI (already is fixing a few things (seat tracks, rear window arms, and power steering) . Also let me drive it 100 miles home to take to mechanic of my choice. If something is major wrong he agreed to pay for PPI and give me my car back (I havnt actually paid him the difference yet).

Finally, whether or not I am a fool or overpaid --

There is significant value in feeling good about and trusting the seller. Congratulation on your "new" Land Cruiser.
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This newbie needs to learn how to use the Reply functions here. (I'm new to forums, too.) The first couple paragraphs of my previous message were not my words but those of the member who recently bought the '95.
 
So slight change of plans - and I will no longer hi-jack this thread about 100 vs 470.

Drove it 125 miles home to do the PPI. The Toyota dealer across from my house was actually very thorough. Let me go back and inspect myself with the lead technician. The technician has worked for Toyota since the early 80's and had a ton of great info. Also he has a badass 85 4runner. Definitely worth the $95.00.

After reading here and on the 80 forums and getting the PPI done, I explained that that 12.5 was too high. He explained that the trade value he had given me for the girlfriends's car was too high and that he would rather reduce the price than keep the trade. We agreed that we both should have negotiated better the first time around. Long story short - He took the trade back and reduced the price of the LC. This works for me because I saved money on the purchase and I am convinced that I can sell the trade for more than it he offered - which I plan to reinvest into the LC.

It does need some work. Most is normal for 20 year old vehicle. PPI confirmed that seller had accurately portrayed vehicle. Does need valve cover gasket, hoses and connections (minor in my book - I can do most of that myself). Small seepage in rear main and head gasket - technician explained that this is normal and should be no problem, but that I need to keep an eye on it (not even a drop in driveway the next morning after driving 250 miles the night before). It does need the wheel bearings and axle seals replaced at some point but not pressing.

Thanks for all the help!
 
Congrats on your 80 Series. Finding one with that few miles is a bloody unicorn. Great that you were able to renegotiate, but aside from one new member with 2 or 3 posts, I think most everyone else here understands that finding any low mileage LC is going to be subject to premium pricing.
 
FWIW, I had some spare time today and scraped some data off of cars.com and conducted an analysis similar to re_guardian's.

There were 245 LX470's and 158 LC's available nationwide. I fit a linear regression model to the data using mileage, year, and LC/LX to predict price. The net of it was that the model is pretty good, with those 3 variables explaining 87% of the variance in the price. All things being equal, an LX sells for approximately $650 more than a LC.

So for example my model predicts that a 2005 LC with 100k miles should sell for $22915 and a 2005 LX470 with 100k miles should sell for $23564.



For anybody that's interested:

Code: 
#miles are in units of 10k

Call:
lm(formula = prices ~ miles + year + type, data = cars)

Residuals:
    Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max
-5082.1 -1456.3  -247.7  1215.5 13528.4

Coefficients:
            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
(Intercept) 21741.61     875.99  24.819  < 2e-16 ***
miles        -568.68      33.78 -16.833  < 2e-16 ***
year1999    -2106.54     660.78  -3.188  0.00155 **
year2000    -1143.82     642.27  -1.781  0.07570 .
year2001       81.49     681.49   0.120  0.90488  
year2002      789.37     670.17   1.178  0.23957  
year2003     3676.89     745.74   4.931 1.21e-06 ***
year2004     5505.77     676.98   8.133 5.62e-15 ***
year2005     6860.94     708.90   9.678  < 2e-16 ***
year2006     9693.43     666.53  14.543  < 2e-16 ***
year2007    13724.17     831.12  16.513  < 2e-16 ***
typeLX470     648.82     252.14   2.573  0.01044 *
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 2349 on 391 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.8762,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.8727
F-statistic: 251.6 on 11 and 391 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

#example predicted prices
  miles year         type predicted_price
1    10 2005        LX470        23564.61
2    10 2005 Land Cruiser        22915.79

UEo5rKGl.png

hsFb1AMl.png
 
Last edited:
TexasCrane said:
FWIW, I had some spare time today and scraped some data off of cars.com and conducted an analysis similar to re_guardian's.

There were 245 LX470's and 158 LC's available nationwide. I fit a linear regression model to the data using mileage, year, and LC/LX to predict price. The net of it was that the model is pretty good, with those 3 variables explaining 87% of the variance in the price. All things being equal, an LX sells for approximately $650 more than a LC.

So my model predicts that a 2005 LC with 100k miles should sell for $22915 and a 2005 LX470 with 100k miles should sell for $23564.



For anybody that's interested:

Code: 
#miles are in units of 10k

Call:
lm(formula = prices ~ miles + year + type, data = cars)

Residuals:
    Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max
-5082.1 -1456.3  -247.7  1215.5 13528.4

Coefficients:
            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
(Intercept) 21741.61     875.99  24.819  < 2e-16 ***
miles        -568.68      33.78 -16.833  < 2e-16 ***
year1999    -2106.54     660.78  -3.188  0.00155 **
year2000    -1143.82     642.27  -1.781  0.07570 .
year2001       81.49     681.49   0.120  0.90488  
year2002      789.37     670.17   1.178  0.23957  
year2003     3676.89     745.74   4.931 1.21e-06 ***
year2004     5505.77     676.98   8.133 5.62e-15 ***
year2005     6860.94     708.90   9.678  < 2e-16 ***
year2006     9693.43     666.53  14.543  < 2e-16 ***
year2007    13724.17     831.12  16.513  < 2e-16 ***
typeLX470     648.82     252.14   2.573  0.01044 *
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 2349 on 391 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.8762,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.8727
F-statistic: 251.6 on 11 and 391 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

#example predicted prices
  miles year         type predicted_price
1    10 2005        LX470        23564.61
2    10 2005 Land Cruiser        22915.79

UEo5rKGl.png

hsFb1AMl.png
Click to expand...


So what should my 2005 LX470 with 133k miles, and all the options in my signature sell for, nevada/texas vehicle no rust and all services documented?
image.webp
 
The model projects a 2005 LX with 133k miles to $21,687. Keep in mind though that's essentially an "average" price. Depending on condition, mods, etc the price could vary by a few thousand higher or lower.
 
How about me, I have a 2005 lx470 with 113k, 1 owner all records, totally stock.
 
TexasCrane said:
The model projects a 2005 LX with 133k miles to $21,687. Keep in mind though that's essentially an "average" price. Depending on condition, mods, etc the price could vary by a few thousand higher or lower.
Click to expand...

I was going to say $22k which seems to agree pretty well with the model. That doesn't take into account the mods, but it seems that the listings above $20k don't allow for nearly the premium for mods that trucks priced under $20k do. The sweet spot for a fast sale on a 100 is the $12-$17k range for 100 series and it seems that when they're priced over $20k they linger much longer unless it's a 2006-2007, stock, maintained, with low miles then those sell very quickly.
 
mcgaskins said:
I was going to say $22k which seems to agree pretty well with the model. That doesn't take into account the mods, but it seems that the listings above $20k don't allow for nearly the premium for mods that trucks priced under $20k do. The sweet spot for a fast sale on a 100 is the $12-$17k range for 100 series and it seems that when they're priced over $20k they linger much longer unless it's a 2006-2007, stock, maintained, with low miles then those sell very quickly.
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SWUtah, FWIW, I think your vehicle was posted for a really good price a few months back when you were looking to sell. If I hadn't bought an LX last year, I would have bought your vehicle for asking price in a heartbeat.
 
TexasCrane said:
$22,825
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Thanks. It's worth much more than that to me. Plus, I've put about 5k into it in the last 12 months, so it's practically new.
 
TexasCrane said:
FWIW, I had some spare time today and scraped some data off of cars.com and conducted an analysis similar to re_guardian's.

There were 245 LX470's and 158 LC's available nationwide. I fit a linear regression model to the data using mileage, year, and LC/LX to predict price. The net of it was that the model is pretty good, with those 3 variables explaining 87% of the variance in the price. All things being equal, an LX sells for approximately $650 more than a LC.

So for example my model predicts that a 2005 LC with 100k miles should sell for $22915 and a 2005 LX470 with 100k miles should sell for $23564.
Click to expand...


That is some really fun looking analysis!! :)

It does leave me wondering about the conclusions. By using Cars.com for all of the pricing data, it doesn't seem like this is establishing a "selling" price analysis as much as an "asking price" analysis (actual selling price data is admittedly a LOT harder to find). I also suspect that when dealers throw their cars onto that site, their typical markups are going to artificially skew the data upward... though admittedly I don't know what the mix of dealer vs private sale vehicles actually is for LC/LX450.

For most cars I've ever researched to buy on Cars.com (or AutoTrader) the dealers overwhelm the private sellers by a ratio of probably 10:1.

Anyway, not to take anything away from the work you did... I just wanted to see if I was reading your results correctly.


-G
 
GregLCA said:
That is some really fun looking analysis!! :)

It does leave me wondering about the conclusions. By using Cars.com for all of the pricing data, it doesn't seem like this is establishing a "selling" price analysis as much as an "asking price" analysis (actual selling price data is admittedly a LOT harder to find). I also suspect that when dealers throw their cars onto that site, their typical markups are going to artificially skew the data upward... though admittedly I don't know what the mix of dealer vs private sale vehicles actually is for LC/LX450.

For most cars I've ever researched to buy on Cars.com (or AutoTrader) the dealers overwhelm the private sellers by a ratio of probably 10:1.

Anyway, not to take anything away from the work you did... I just wanted to see if I was reading your results correctly.


-G
Click to expand...

I think that's a fair reading of the results. There's some level of bias inherent in the data simply because it's from cars.com. Analysis of craigslist data would probably yield different results. Same with Autotrader. I also didn't try to split out private sellers vs dealers.

And you're right that there's really no way to know what the actual selling price was. It's really an analysis of what vehicles are listed for. But I do think it's probably safe to assume that there's a linear relationship between listing and sales price, meaning that if an LX is on average listed for about $650 more than an LC, it's probably safe to assume that they sell for more than LC's on average.
 
My experience when I was shopping for a used LC at the end of 2009 was that there were very few of them available. Like many have said in this thread, there's a cache about the LC badged rig vs. the LX versions. However, once I opened my mind up a bit and realized the LX was simply a fancy LC and that my local Toyota dealer would be able to service it (we'd had good experiences with them as my wife drives a Camry Hybrid), I was able to find a number of great condition LX's at what seemed to be the same prices as the fewer LC's. I was also aware that very few of them ever saw anything other than pavement.

The short of it was that at the end of 2009, I found a 2002 LX with 68k miles are a Utah Lexus dealership that was a one owner trade. Service records were complete though 65k miles (Lexus provided this before purchase). The dealer drove the vehicle 250 miles to me for inspection with the understanding that if I didn't buy the rig, I'd pay them $200 (IIRC) but if I did buy it, that would be absorbed in the purchase price. I *think* I paid about $23.5 all in at the time which was maybe a grand more than I wanted to pay but the miles were low for an eight year old vehicle (it had gone into service in late 2001) and it was in 9/10 condition.

It was only a few months ago that I did the timing belt service at 91k miles which included front brakes but the dealership didn't feel the water pump needed replacement as it looked fine. I had to replace a broken power antenna a couple years ago (Toyota dealer did it for about $140-50) and the motor for the steering wheel telescope function jammed up soon after I bought it. Fortunately, it's where I want it. I now have 93k on the rig and do regular off-roading on some pretty nasty two tracks but I don't *wheel* it like many of you guys. It has so far been a no drama rig and I expect to drive it for a number of years to come.

I would replace it with another Lexus LC when the time comes. Once you have those nice features you hate to lose them. BTW, the AHC system which was an initial concern has been a non-issue. I don't use it off road. Heck, I've rarely had to lock the CD or even go into 4 Low. It's just incredibly capable in stock form.

If you're shopping for a Land Cruiser, you'll find a lot more LX's available and, probably, in much better condition with, mostly, freeway miles. I simple refer to mine as a Lexus Land Cruiser. Everyone gets that.
 
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