Thought I would share my experience:
2008 with the center diff blinking occasionally over the years, had thought that because of the awesome location that Mr Toyota placed the button that it was either myself or my wife that would hit it with our knees. This may or may not be the case as I've not been able to prove this has for sure ever happened. Nonetheless, periodically it would come on and after being driven and the vehicle turned off and on a few times, or over the course of a few days it would go away. The only real problem is the annoying blinking light and the fact that you can't shift to Lo 4 when this error/malfunction is occurring.
Fast forward to this weekend when we have been below freezing temps with lots of snow and ice on the streets. I took the 200 out for an errand and on my way back in the neighbnorhood I decided to run it thru the 4lo and CDL functions as some have noted here that this whole issue may be a stuck actuator because of infrequent use. It went into 4lo just fine, and in my eternal wisdom thought to lock the CDL. Needless to say it did not engage and was left with only the blinking light and also stuck in 4lo.
Over the following days and re-reading this thread as I have many times in the past, I tried every sort of combination of tricks and tips noted before me without success. I relinquished my pride and texted my buddy at the Toyota shop that I would be coming in today and have him look at it, fully prepared to order and replace the CDL actuator. However, temps began to warm and driving the 200 in 4lo for about 8 miles to the dealership seemed to have allowed the CDL to "un-stick" and when I tested my theory as I had pulled into the Toyota dealership at 0645, it worked (simply turning the vehicle off and back on). I then ensured it would also go into 4lo and back out, which it did without issue. So I tucked my tail and drove home. Of note, I did get a carwash on the way to the dealership with an underbody spray as to not have my buddy at the shop be irked about all the road grime from the weeks snow and salt. I do wonder if the spraying may have helped "fix" the issue as well, as some have noted that this may be an electrical connection/plug issue.
Regardless, my current plan is to just avoid using the CDL at all cost, ESPECIALLY if I find myself in 4 Lo. At some point Ill plan to replace it, but its not on the top of the list for now. In all the places Ive taken this 200, it is the exception that I ever need to put it in 4lo, much less lock the diff.