Am I Nuts for Considering a Cruiser Purchase in Today's Market?

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I've been considering the upgrade to a 200 as well. There's a 2017 w 50k miles for $71k that I was going to check out and drive. But I figure my rig is only worth $15k (2003 w 190k miles) so to get into this rig, I'd have to sell mine and come up with another $60k (w tax). Then I think how much I really like my Hundy and I never schedule an appt to see it. :)
 
I've been considering the upgrade to a 200 as well. There's a 2017 w 50k miles for $71k that I was going to check out and drive. But I figure my rig is only worth $15k (2003 w 190k miles) so to get into this rig, I'd have to sell mine and come up with another $60k (w tax). Then I think how much I really like my Hundy and I never schedule an appt to see it. :)
wow that is steep price and that is the reason i am not jumping gun. i would try to stay below $60k not to regret later when we see prices normalizing
 
wow that is steep price and that is the reason i am not jumping gun. i would try to stay below $60k not to regret later when we see prices normalizing
yep, a friend of mine sold his 2016 w 75k miles in 2019 for $55k. It was immaculate and he was the original owner. I wasn't ready to buy it then, but that's the sort of deal I'll look for when prices normalize.
 
Interesting thread, and good timing. I logged in after a long time away precisely to answer this question. Let me ask something similar, but with a slightly different set of conditions.
  1. What if you had to have a car within the next 4 months? If things work out, I'll be moving to Las Vegas (no public transport) from overseas, and renting a car is going to be both throwing money away and rather expensive.
  2. Widening the scope, what would you, as a Land Cruiser fan, consider instead? Lexus is the obvious choice, but I assume they are over-priced too. The way I look at it, if the artificial scarcity has made a LC purchase unwise, then all options are on the table. 4runner? A new electric? New LC/Lexus?
This isn't strictly about money -- I could afford $85K or new; it's about not getting ripped off and trying for the best value for money. Is there a 'sweet spot' for anything right now?
 
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wow that is steep price and that is the reason i am not jumping gun. i would try to stay below $60k not to regret later when we see prices normalizing
Yeah I bought a 3 year old cruiser in 2016 with the same mileage and paid less than $50k.
 
Interesting thread, and good timing. I logged in after a long time away precisely to answer this question. Let me ask something similar, but with a slightly different set of conditions.
  1. What if you had to have a car within the next 4 months? If things work out, I'll be moving to Las Vegas (no public transport) from overseas, and renting a car is going to be both throwing money away and rather expensive.
  2. Widening the scope, what would you, as a Land Cruiser fan, consider instead? Lexus is the obvious choice, but I assume they are over-priced too. The way I look at it, if the artificial scarcity has made a LC purchase unwise, then all options are on the table. 4runner? A new electric? New LC/Lexus?
This isn't strictly about money -- I could afford $85K or new; it's about not getting ripped off and trying for the best value for money. Is there a 'sweet spot' for anything right now?
It depends on your needs. If you don't need an LC right now, you could always buy a beater to DD for a bit until the LC you want shows up. you could also do a monthly rental from Hertz or something when you get to Vegas and then try to find the vehicle you want at that time

Used LX570 tend to be cheaper than LC's in my experience. It depends on your local market though - there are probably lots of LC's sold in Colorado but very few sold in Illinois - however lots of Money buy or lease an LX here but don't keep them so you can often find multiple on the used market. The "sweet spot" really depends on your location as you basically need some competition (similar price, mileage, and condition vehicles)

I can't blame people for buying brand new but when you consider the amount of depreciation you'll take the first few years it is NOT the smart financial move. Really rough case in point (under normal markets) - if a new LC normally sells for $90k and lasts 300k miles your depreciation is $0.30/mile, but you can buy a 3-4 year old cruiser with 60k miles for $45k which should still last 300k miles your depreciation is now ~$0.19/mile. Or thinking about it another way - buy two used cruisers for the same $ but you get to drive them a combined 480k miles instead of only 300k miles for the single new one.

BTW if I was willing to drop $85-90k on a new 200 right now I would personally just wait and order an LX600. I do think the LC market prices will significantly correct once the LX600 is readily available as the majority of new LC/LX buyers (which are not on MUD) don't care about the "last of the V8's" but in the nearly 6 figure price range just want the latest tech and luxury available to them.
 
The dollar just continues to be worth less (not worthless...yet). Don't expect these prices to go down much even if inflation does start to taper. Get a fixed low interest loan at whatever price you can afford. The fed will continue to kill the dollar. In a few years you will look back, just like others are doing now, at the "relative" deal you got. It's criminal what our politicians are doing but you don't have to be a victim. I'd much rather have hard assets in this environment and a LC/LX is a very hard durable asset. :)
 
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Interesting thread, and good timing. I logged in after a long time away precisely to answer this question. Let me ask something similar, but with a slightly different set of conditions.
  1. What if you had to have a car within the next 4 months? If things work out, I'll be moving to Las Vegas (no public transport) from overseas, and renting a car is going to be both throwing money away and rather expensive.
  2. Widening the scope, what would you, as a Land Cruiser fan, consider instead? Lexus is the obvious choice, but I assume they are over-priced too. The way I look at it, if the artificial scarcity has made a LC purchase unwise, then all options are on the table. 4runner? A new electric? New LC/Lexus?
This isn't strictly about money -- I could afford $85K or new; it's about not getting ripped off and trying for the best value for money. Is there a 'sweet spot' for anything right now?
As noted by others, the entire used/new vehicle market is screwed up right now, with the epitome of the mess being the LC/LX. There really isn’t a sweet spot for anything at the moment, with MSRP and above being the norm across the board. Being in Singapore, you likely have not seen the empty dealer lots or the vast numbers of unsold vehicles in manufacturer lots awaiting chips in the U.S. I recommend going to the nearest Carmax lot when you get to Vegas and buying something that works for you in the interim until the supply/demand gets normalized a bit. Otherwise I’m afraid getting ripped off will be hard to avoid.
 
If you could wait a bit I have to agree that the lx 600 release will be the best moment to get in. Go to a dealer now and try to get dibs on a lease return contract in a color you want. I know the LV Lexus stealership so that may be difficult with them. I did not have good experiences there. If you have friends it would help tremendously.

I know it’s not an LC but in my opinion the 2016+ LXs are the best example of 200 series. That is if AHC is not a deal breaker for you.

In this market you may not get the best deal but this instance you may actually have a semblance of selection.
At least in Vegas you know they are all bone dry.
 
Forgot to mention that YouTube told me the Cayenne is getting slept on. I know they are littered about Las Vegas.

I know I know. At least it’s not a LR product.
 
The dollar just continues to be worth less (not worthless...yet). Don't expect these prices to go down much even if inflation does start to taper. Get a fixed low interest loan at whatever price you afford. The fed will continue to kill the dollar. In a few years you will look back, just like others are doing now, at the "relative" deal you got. It's criminal what our politicians are doing but you don't have to a victim. I'd much rather have hard assets in this environment and a LC/LX is a very hard durable asset. :)
I think vehicle prices are far outside the realm of normal inflation right now, due to the chip shortages. Vehicle inflation is like housing inflation at 20% per year, whereas the Fed is tracking broader inflation at more like 6-7% right now. There's nothing on dealer lots around here, so with supply low and demand high dealer can pretty much ask whatever they want, hence the markups. If manufacturers can start getting chips again then I expect the supply problem to subside, which *should* reduce prices somewhat. You're right though, I doubt that they'll go back to where things were as Toyota etc will raise prices at (or above) the rate of inflation.

And all that said the longer chip shortages last, the more likely manufacturers will be to increase prices (or reduce price cuts) in order to increase margins on battery vehicles which have historically been more expensive and harder to profit from (Tesla notwithstanding).
 
My opinion is a bit contrarian, but i'll chime in just for kicks.

The supply/demand fundamentals are fairly predictable here.

Toyota has a massive transport cargo ship for delivering LC’s to the US from the AICHI plants. If the plant is producing, there are LC’s. End of story. Aichi production is published somewhere? If there was a problem, it would hit that final production number. The approximate number of LC’s sold in the US in 2017 was 6700 units. That’s low, but it’s gotta be higher now. They can increase production in this year to meet demand.

1) The fundamental problem here, is that Toyota has signaled to its dealers that it will no longer sell the Land Cruiser in the U.S. That’s it, that’s the whole story. Now it’s a game of dealers and unintended consequences. So with that singular fact the price for Land Cruisers has spiked. Demand for all used vehicles has increased and the forecasted delivery of LC’s to the US is decreasing. This is analogous to when a futures market for an asset serves as a price signal for the real market. Guess what? That means buyers that understand that issue suddenly find interest in Land Cruisers again. And with that, we’re all screwed.

2) Bottom line, an increasing number of buyers is fighting over a dwindling US ONLY supply of Land Cruisers. Until that demand is exhausted, the price will be higher than our comfort level desires. But wait too long and the quality or part supply may be a problem. So get what you can and be ready to negotiate. This is a fire sale, pure and simple.

As 4+ pages of thread suggest, the suggestions are all over the place, it really just depends on how much pain you can suffer at the sale and price of gas. Here is the only metric I gave a s--- about when I bought mine. -=Cost/Depreciation. If I drive my 2013 for a decade, as I have my 100 series, the price really isn’t too bad. The similar options aren’t that great. I’m making a hard dollar bet on Toyota reliability. That’s it. I don’t need a quadrophonic blaupunkt or fur-lined cupholders. Call me old-fashioned.

Not saying to anyone that they must by an LC, there is no shame if you think the price is too high. It probably is. It’s high for everything right now, so it could be worse.

If you have time on your side, I do believe Toyota may re-think their decision, but the limiting factor really isn’t the Land Cruiser brand, it’s the efficiency. The electric era is here and the LC needs to adjust for it. I'm an optimist, I believe that will happen. But not for another 3-4 years. At least.

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Btw, If you did a very crude line graph of compared average prices vs kbb book value, you’d likely see that it diverges from book value the more recent the model. My belief is that the prices will be too high for another 24 months. After which, the potential expense or shortage of spare parts may become a problem.
 
$54k or more??? Holy shat. Everything I own is essentially for sale. My 2011 with 90K, lift, uca's etc, stack of records...hell, now you got me thinking. Wife would be pissed but hey.
 
I hadn't heard about it being discontinued. Is this official from Toyota? As in a statement confirming they won't be bringing the 300 in, or is is market speculation?
Only in the US. The US is a very competitive market for cars. We let almost any and every company in. The ones that suck don't last long. But the chicken little mentality, that suggests the LC isn't a success is incorrect. The LC is a great vehicle internationally. We're just at a crossroads where the move to electric is changing the landscape.

The Land Cruiser will continue to survive and thrive internationally, but it will need to be more economically efficient to sell well in the US. And I believe once it gets a hybrid/EV powertrain it will probably return. It's just a function of the fact that the SUV market in the US is extremely competitive. As I've said before the LX series Lexus is the highest profit margin of any Toyota vehicle.
 
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Only in the US. The US is a very competitive market for cars. We let almost any and every company in. The ones that suck don't last long. But the chicken little mentality, that suggests the LC isn't a success is incorrect. The LC is a great vehicle internationally. We're just at a crossroads where the move to electric is changing the landscape.

The Land Cruiser will continue to survive and thrive internationally, but it will need to be more economically efficient to sell well in the US. And I believe once it gets a hybrid/EV powertrain it will probably return. It's just a function of the fact that the SUV market in the US is extremely competitive. As I've said before the LX series Lexus is the highest profit margin of any Toyota vehicle.

Ah, that adds a bit of color then. The real shortage of new LC's, combined with a FOMO (fear of missing out) since they're not going to be importing any more. I see that the 300 is coming as the LX. Will be interesting to see what that's going to be like; a shame the grill just keeps getting uglier.

I guess, short term, a beater for a DD is going to be the best move financially. I've often considered those Mercedes W123 and similar. 1 million miles on some of those in Europe and the middle east, and they should be cheap enough not to worry too much about a loss when the 'right' LC/LX comes along.
 
Ah, that adds a bit of color then. The real shortage of new LC's, combined with a FOMO (fear of missing out) since they're not going to be importing any more. I see that the 300 is coming as the LX. Will be interesting to see what that's going to be like; a shame the grill just keeps getting uglier.

I guess, short term, a beater for a DD is going to be the best move financially. I've often considered those Mercedes W123 and similar. 1 million miles on some of those in Europe and the middle east, and they should be cheap enough not to worry too much about a loss when the 'right' LC/LX comes along.

Good luck finding a W123 worth a crap for a decent deal either. I love the 240D with the manual and I'd kill for a 300 wagon but anything in good shape sells for $15K+ these days.
 
I just had a look and confirmed what @Tex68w said -- there aren't any 'deals' to be had, even in ancient Merc's. In fact, I just saw a '67 Ford Bronco that sold at auction for $58K ! Holy sh*t, something is seriously wrong with the market.

I wonder if a lease might the way to go then? Either a new one or taking over one. Unfortunately, there don't seem to be any LC's on the lease takeover sites, but there are 4Runners...
 
Per the question above about what to consider if the LC200 is too expensive on the secondary market, I continue to believe that the Lexus GX is a great platform for most people. Still built to a high standard, still capable offroad (should the need arise,) and likely to last quite a while.

In the last six years, since I bought my 2015 LC, when family asked about which luxury SUV they should buy I typically recommend the LC200, LX570, or GX460.

I’ve had my fair share of “premium” SUVs, including LRs, Touareg, Cayennes, Audi’s, MBs. All had some sort of significant issue within the first few years of ownership. Not that you need an itemized list, but the carnage includes (but is not limited to):
-an entire power steering assembly needing to be replaced, ~35k miles on the odometer (Audi)
-a center diff that, for lack of a better phrase, “exploded” at around around 60k miles (also VW, blame the V10 TDI)
-air suspension compressor and airbags that failed within the first 25k miles (both LR and MB)
-an entire body harness and transmission needing replacement, ~50k miles (Cayenne Turbo)
-vehicle was bought back from the manufacturer due to repeated engine shut downs, including at highway speed (Cayenne Turbo S)

And I could go on. All vehicles were purchased new or CPO from authorized dealerships, and serviced exclusively at dealerships. No accidents
or other outside factors in play. Most/all were still within warranty or extended warranty when these failures occurred.

At this point I don’t foresee purchasing an SUV, other than the Landcruiser or large Lexus body-on-frame offerings, for as long as that is feasible.

Rant over. Check out the GX, it’s worth a look.
 

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