Am I Nuts for Considering a Cruiser Purchase in Today's Market?

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Great comments in the thread, but a question I will pose is what is going to happen to the price of cars when the electric car/zero emissions mandate hits here in 2024? Will the price of cars continue to increase, even if the economy tanks? Another factor to consider will be the price of fuel for our tanks. How with the zero emissions mandate impact those prices?

Just thoughts I’m having as I am in a similar predicament. I have a ‘99 LX100 and would really like to upgrade, but don’t think I will in this market.

Be wise, no matter! 👍
 
On buy & sell side yea it's a wash. I can't control external markets but I can minimize exposure by playing both sides.

FWIW here's what I just did... paid a private seller $68.5K an excellent condition 2016 @ 70K last month. Then tack on another $8K for things like tires / tint / taxes / baseline...ouch.

Rationalized the purchase since this specific LC200 is the cleanest 2016+ example I've seen under a sales price $70,000.
 
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Two truths,

It's more important you buy the vehicle right than sell it right.

If gas goes to $10 per gallon or is rationed gas hogs will drop in price like a stone.
 
What do you think of this from carmax? 113k miles, but one owner and all records from toyota dealer. BTW i reserved it yesterday and now it is inbound for carmax near me, hopefully $350 transportation wouldnt go to waste if i find something wrong with it. I will be trading my 2021 gx460 i purchased in july a little under MSRP but including extra dealer protection 3m clear thing so the tradein will make it good buy in my case since carmax is offering me $60k for tradein on my gx with 7700 miles on it.
Heads up on that Carmax Landcruiser
I drove from San Diego to Murrieta Cslifornia Riverside county carmax.
Condition is everything
Driver seat cushion was ripped and repaired with stitching and bad brown paint overspray, same with steering wheel overspray affecting cruise control, instrument cluster is faded and warped needing replacement due to chemicals that they used on the plastic odometer cover
Pocket door panels had holes covered with liquid rubber plastic. Check pictures and zoom in . Carpets have been bleached . Bad wiring on bad trunk.
Start adding $$ to fix issues
I saw this car 7 months ago and it keeps being moved over several carmax dealerships, it was also moved mid california Sacramento and Tulare and now it’s in Texas! Modifying my original post, this deserves Johnny Cash song” I’ve been everywhere man…”
They won’t budge on price.
Not worth it
I bought a 2017 from a Toyota dealership in Moreno Valley instead
 
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Lots more great replies. I have decided to wait for the time being. And I am going to concentrate on finding a southern rig and preferably from a private owner. That local 2013 I looked at had all the weld lines on the chassis showing corrosion as well as other spots. Not too bad, but I am pretty particular about my cars. Plus, it had moisture in the upper portion of the headlights, faded pin stripe, and the bracket/bolts holding the rubber stops on the lift gate were badly rusted. I think that it spent a lot of time stored outside sadly.

I think a fly/drive home plan is a good one. I fly for a living, so jumpseating anywhere is super easy. Just finding a rental car is the challenge... It is always something, right? I did find one about 3-1/2 hours away that is a '13 with 120k for $42k. Waiting on the owner to respond.
 
Lots more great replies. I have decided to wait for the time being. And I am going to concentrate on finding a southern rig and preferably from a private owner. That local 2013 I looked at had all the weld lines on the chassis showing corrosion as well as other spots. Not too bad, but I am pretty particular about my cars. Plus, it had moisture in the upper portion of the headlights, faded pin stripe, and the bracket/bolts holding the rubber stops on the lift gate were badly rusted. I think that it spent a lot of time stored outside sadly.

I think a fly/drive home plan is a good one. I fly for a living, so jumpseating anywhere is super easy. Just finding a rental car is the challenge... It is always something, right? I did find one about 3-1/2 hours away that is a '13 with 120k for $42k. Waiting on the owner to respond.
I just got under my 16' to remove the running boards.
Noticed some corrosion in the weld lines as well, but I live in Cleveland so no biggie.

I rinse the undercarriage weekly and am going to get the thing undercoated in the next couple of weeks.

Good luck with your search, $42K for that 13' ain't too bad!
 
Lots more great replies. I have decided to wait for the time being. And I am going to concentrate on finding a southern rig and preferably from a private owner. That local 2013 I looked at had all the weld lines on the chassis showing corrosion as well as other spots. Not too bad, but I am pretty particular about my cars. Plus, it had moisture in the upper portion of the headlights, faded pin stripe, and the bracket/bolts holding the rubber stops on the lift gate were badly rusted. I think that it spent a lot of time stored outside sadly.

I think a fly/drive home plan is a good one. I fly for a living, so jumpseating anywhere is super easy. Just finding a rental car is the challenge... It is always something, right? I did find one about 3-1/2 hours away that is a '13 with 120k for $42k. Waiting on the owner to respond.
I'm gonna wait for a while, but I found another one 🤣
 
I paid $26k for an '11 LX in March from a private party. There are some decent prices out there, but you have to be quick. I found mine on Cargurus.
 
Buddy paid $28K for a 2009 LX with 110K back in the spring and I thought it was a touch high but it was a two owner, fully documented service and extremely clean. There are still deals to be had out there, just keep up your daily searches.
 
Gotta love zerohedge. Tyler is great at finding patterns after the fact to prove a point.

Run that same chart including fed overnight interest rates and you'll see a similar pattern. Private equity, pension funds, etc are all in search of returns since treasuries don't cut it when interest rates are near zero, hence all that bond $ gets dumped into the stock market in search of returns.

Flashing repo rates are good indicators of liquidity issues in the banking system and we definitely need to be looking at that closely.
You are right though. The thing about "predicting" a crash is its pretty useless, i can agree on that specially given that they are a regular occurrence. LOL
But i also wont say that timing is irrelevant for anyone listening.

A lot of people talk about time in vs timing and thats all extremely played out and liberally thrown around these days but it does matter on absolute terms.
We know missing the bottom is not as consequential as missing the top (there is a widely distributed study on this) but let's not forget reality exists either.
People lose jobs, retire, and make huge investments have medical emergencies, other issues. Timing is literally life or death sometimes.
Timing is also everything when it comes to debt and when leverage is at play (which we are in new paradigm levels of leverage)

If we can see every asset class is moving with feverish momentum then we know that in the larger scheme the relative landscape has changed.
It could unwind rapidly, or we could stall for 30 years economically to catch up.
I dont want to hear anyone tell me housing is not a bubble when baseball cards are going for lambo prices +.

The thing about money and wealth is that its a relative phenomenon. When everything rises, nothing does.
Runaway asset inflation can and will starve an economy and when the dust settles no one has made any new wealth.
We have unprecedented amount of money chasing non productive assets. The underlying economy is dead.

One comedian i heard recently put it best:
"The new American dream is how NOT to participate in the American dream."

BTW full disclosure i have been completely out since 2020 due to religious beliefs but i have made good money in the market prior at young age.
I neither think the market is rational nor intelligent and im a firm contrarian but you can certainly make "money" on the way up and down (and sideways).
Thats why i dare my friends to sell their crypto. They wont :).
 
Flashing repo rates are good indicators of liquidity issues in the banking system and we definitely need to be looking at that closely.
You are right though. The thing about "predicting" a crash is its pretty useless, i can agree on that specially given that they are a regular occurrence. LOL
But i also wont say that timing is irrelevant for anyone listening.

A lot of people talk about time in vs timing and thats all extremely played out and liberally thrown around these days but it does matter on absolute terms.
We know missing the bottom is not as consequential as missing the top (there is a widely distributed study on this) but let's not forget reality exists either.
People lose jobs, retire, and make huge investments have medical emergencies, other issues. Timing is literally life or death sometimes.
Timing is also everything when it comes to debt and when leverage is at play (which we are in new paradigm levels of leverage)

If we can see every asset class is moving with feverish momentum then we know that in the larger scheme the relative landscape has changed.
It could unwind rapidly, or we could stall for 30 years economically to catch up.
I dont want to hear anyone tell me housing is not a bubble when baseball cards are going for lambo prices +.

The thing about money and wealth is that its a relative phenomenon. When everything rises, nothing does.
Runaway asset inflation can and will starve an economy and when the dust settles no one has made any new wealth.
We have unprecedented amount of money chasing non productive assets. The underlying economy is dead.

One comedian i heard recently put it best:
"The new American dream is how NOT to participate in the American dream."

BTW full disclosure i have been completely out since 2020 due to religious beliefs but i have made good money in the market prior at young age.
I neither think the market is rational nor intelligent and im a firm contrarian but you can certainly make "money" on the way up and down (and sideways).
Thats why i dare my friends to sell their crypto. They wont :).
I’ve predicted 12 of the last 3 recessions. Easy to think you’re getting out at the top, then watch the market double, correct, then keep on climbing.

The bubble may well burst and the economy stagnate for decades (like Japan) but if it bursts and you have inflation where are you putting your $ anyway? Gold and Silver… good luck finding physical metals (not paper gold contracts) that aren’t so Mia priced you’re losing your shirt on the exchange anyway. Might as well invest your cash in Mad Max zombie apocalypse vehicles and mods…. Like a Land Cruiser
 
Heads up on that Carmax Landcruiser
I drove from San Diego to Murrieta Cslifornia Riverside county carmax.
Condition is everything
Driver seat cushion was ripped and repaired with stitching and bad brown paint overspray, same with steering wheel overspray affecting cruise control, instrument cluster is faded and warped needing replacement due to chemicals that they used on the plastic odometer cover
Pocket door panels had holes covered with liquid rubber plastic. Check pictures and zoom in . Carpets have been bleached . Bad wiring on bad trunk.
Start adding $$ to fix issues
I saw this car 7 months ago and it keeps being moved over several carmax dealerships, it was also moved mid california Sacramento and Tulare and now it’s in Texas! Modifying my original post, this deserves Johnny Cash song” I’ve been everywhere man…”
They won’t budge on price.
Not worth it
I bought a 2017 from a Toyota dealership in Moreno Valley instead
woww, it sound pretty beatup for that condition. i wonder whatelse happened to the cruiser which isnt caught in carfax. theres one accident which isnt reported but vehice was towed.
 
Mileage is relevant.....
 
I’ve predicted 12 of the last 3 recessions. Easy to think you’re getting out at the top, then watch the market double, correct, then keep on climbing.

The bubble may well burst and the economy stagnate for decades (like Japan) but if it bursts and you have inflation where are you putting your $ anyway? Gold and Silver… good luck finding physical metals (not paper gold contracts) that aren’t so Mia priced you’re losing your shirt on the exchange anyway. Might as well invest your cash in Mad Max zombie apocalypse vehicles and mods…. Like a Land Cruiser

Currently having been out of this last year run I’m definitely feeling it.

I’ve got a good metals source if you are interested though DM me, but yeah gold is dead. Bitcoin is too hot for gold to exist anymore. Too bad I guess.

Zombie apocalypse is an actual reason I got my truck. 😵‍💫 Mad max is very close judging by driving in Texas traffic. Guns and all. I guess waterworld didn’t pan out or not yet lol
 
Heads up on that Carmax Landcruiser
I drove from San Diego to Murrieta Cslifornia Riverside county carmax.
Condition is everything
Driver seat cushion was ripped and repaired with stitching and bad brown paint overspray, same with steering wheel overspray affecting cruise control, instrument cluster is faded and warped needing replacement due to chemicals that they used on the plastic odometer cover
Pocket door panels had holes covered with liquid rubber plastic. Check pictures and zoom in . Carpets have been bleached . Bad wiring on bad trunk.
Start adding $$ to fix issues
I saw this car 7 months ago and it keeps being moved over several carmax dealerships, it was also moved mid california Sacramento and Tulare and now it’s in Texas! Modifying my original post, this deserves Johnny Cash song” I’ve been everywhere man…”
They won’t budge on price.
Not worth it
I bought a 2017 from a Toyota dealership in Moreno Valley instead
So this cruiser made it to texas. I went over last night to test drive and see the vehicle in person. Oh boy, where do i start it was pretty beatup for 2016. Outside paint was littered with scratches and swirl marks and most would buff out but some wont easily without thinning clear coat to a point where it may expose paint. i could tell the clear coat wasnt in very good shape. I wonder how this cruiser was being used to be in such condition. All you mentioned were correct for condition. I looked underneath and about mid frame there were scrape marks which had some rust which probably tells either it was offroaded and scraped underneath or somehow ran over something to get that damage. one thing i noticed was the rear speaker covers were probably not OEM since it was cloth with foam underneath and if i remember correctly the rear door speaker cover is also hard plastic like the front.
after test drive soon as i opened door the seat went back flat and steering rose up. i was like WTF, so i closed door adjusted seat and opened door it didnt happened, i did couple of times didnt happened. then i closed door and opened handle slightly just right at position where it clicks to open door and soon soon as i pulled to opene it did same, im sure previous owner had messed up some wiring inside while doing speaker replacement there must be a short circuit in driver door to activate one of memory controls.
hood had some rubber piece missing on front lip.
the rear split gate was kind of messy as well, when u try to open lower gate it opens half an inch then u have to pull again to fully open and same when u close you have to slam it to fully latch.
test driving wise i felt little shaky at times, dnt know if it was from tires, suspension or transmission. tires were brand new. suspension i cannot tell if it had aftermarket suspension previously.
the interior plastic trim panels had damage at various places.
someone who had driven both LX and LC can probably comment if the steering softness is different in both, the steering felt a little stiff to me as i previoulsy had owned 2008 LX and steering was smoother than this 2016 LC.
I did take some pictures of damages i could see but not going to post here, if someone interested i can send privately.
Good thing is that when i paid for transfer and ran carfax afterwards i was bummed so called them in couple of hours to request refund and cancel transfer, they said transfer hasnt initiated so we will cancel transfer and refund in 3 days. i did get refund yesterday but vehicle did get transferred to tx as well. so im glad i didnt lose on transfer fee and get to see vehicle in person as well.
There has to be more damage fixed on this vehicle outside of insurance claims or going on records.
Whoever owned this vehicle just pain abused it badly. sad to see cruise in such condition.
After looking and driving last night i decided i will not move forward with this cruiser so if someone in dfw want the cruiser in such condition it will be up for grabs in couple of days.
 
There has to be more damage fixed on this vehicle outside of insurance claims or going on records.

Buyers beware esp. in this market. More evidence that I really shouldn't ever buy without first seeing the car.

Similar experience over here with a 2016 out of a small locally owned Houston dealer.

The truck had two separate repairs & paint work across pretty much every panel. The transmission was a mess even after I spent $155 at the dealer to update the firmware to match the latest. The interior clearly was used by someone who could care less about it - too many little things to get into.

After attempting to come to terms with a fix the dealer agreed to let me out of the deal because they legitimately did want me to be happy with the truck.
 
after test drive soon as i opened door the seat went back flat and steering rose up. i was like WTF, so i closed door adjusted seat and opened door it didnt happened, i did couple of times didnt happened
this is the easy-exit functionality, it's normal. can be disabled via tech stream
 
this is the easy-exit functionality, it's normal. can be disabled via tech stream
if it was easy exit function i wouldnt have issue with that, i had that in my previous LX and 2 GXs we have now. what actually happened was that one of seat memory settings get activated which was the seat back laid backwards halfway and moved up and steering moved towards driver halfway.
Whereas in exit the seat slides all the way back or halfway back depending on your settings and the steering moved all the way inward to give space for exit.
 

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