If you search here for "reliability, 100", you will get 181 threads with people asking basically the same question. They're coming from a 100 and considering a 200. Here's the short answer - objectively the 200 is better in every way; subjectively some people like the smaller "feel" of a 100 more. That's it. Just saved you a bunch of time reading
I've been watching the secondary Land Cruiser market, specifically the 100s and 200s, for over a decade. 100s for one reason or another have either totally bottomed out in depreciation or in some cases even appreciated in the last few years which has created a floor for the value of the 200s. Four years ago people were saying "an older high miles 200 is in the mid $20k range now, so if I wait another couple years they're going to be $10k", and that was wrong. A $25k 200 from 4 years ago is a $23k 200 today, maybe even still $25k depending on condition, miles, color, rust, etc.
I ran my 08 LX570 through KBB for kicks the other day, and the mileage premium or penalty was roughly $0.02/mile. Meaning, if you look at my current miles of ~167k and added 10k miles, it would lower the value by $200 or if you subtracted 10k miles it increases the value by $200. It's hard to say exactly which factors lead to this, but it appears the 200 has a floor of the low $20k range regardless of miles or condition. I'm sure someone's brother's friend's cousin has found a 200 for $15k, and that's great for him, but that's not what the general market is or likely will be for quite some time. If you're thinking about jumping into a 200 series and want to wait for them to be cheaper than a 100, it's not happening any time soon if ever.
There are a few factors that could lower the future resale of 100s and 200s, but they're speculative in nature IMO:
- One would be the 300 series being more utilitarian, better off road, better gas mileage, and much cheaper than a new 200. That would reset all the values for the 200 and subsequently older models down the line. It's unlikely, but it's possible. I remember when the original Wrangler Rubicon came out, and people back then thought it might be a limited edition run for a year or two then fade into oblivion when the first rollover happened and killed someone. The 4 door version of the Wrangler in Rubicon trim has been one of the hottest selling Jeeps of all time, and the highest residual trucks on the road over the years have included the Rubicon, TRD Pro versions of trucks, the FJ Cruiser, the Land Cruiser, etc. so that shows there is strong demand for off road worth trucks. If Toyota decided to move the 300 into a more off road worthy/less luxury guise for a cheaper price, that will depress the residuals for existing Land Cruisers.
- A more likely scenario would be fuel prices going through the roof due to some conflict, embargo, war, etc. that all of a sudden makes trucks getting under 15mpg fall out of fashion real quick. Enthusiasts will still buy them no doubt, but the people who aren't using them to their full potential will be looking for something more fuel efficient and prices will drop just like they did in 2008 when oil went through the roof. If oil goes crazy at the same time the economy cracks, prices will drop, and people will not be lining up to buy an $85k Toyota that gets 15mpg going downhill with a tailwind.
- Another thing to consider is in the first point OEMs are figuring out that people like off road trucks with real wheeling credibility, so if they keep cranking out sweet trucks like the Raptor, ZR2 and Rubicon and apply that formula to other vehicles in the lineup that cost half as much as the 200 that will depress prices eventually especially when they're faster, have more modern tech, and get better fuel economy.
Didn't intend for that to be a rant, but you can probably tell I spend a lot of time contemplating the market for Land Cruisers especially since I have 2 200s in the garage
