Thanks for all the replies.
What I've never done, for fairly obvious reason - or seen anyone else do - is swap a 255 for a 285 and measure the change in performance.
My current 295 Nittos do ok in the snow, not great. I know all about compounds, studs, etc., but having never had this unique set of circumstances before, and as my impending regear will happen precisely once, I want to hear about first-hand experiences with the effect of width.
Done it.
I have not "measured" the difference. You can only quantify anything snow, traction or tire related factors so much. The variables just in the snow itself are immense. It is much easier to form a valid subjective "feel" on the actual real world performance from accumulated experience than it is to actually put definitive science based numbers on it.
Anyway, "first hand experiences with the effect of width".
On one occasion it was 33x9.5s and 33x12.5s on the same day in the same place. Swapped between 35x12.5s and 38x12.5s same day, same place too on another occasion, as well as operating virtually identical rigs side by side on the different tires. Other times it has been identical rigs on 265s, 285s, 305s and 315s operated over the same roads and trails for longer periods of time. Ran 35x9.5s, 36x12.5s and 38x13.5s all on the same V8 mini truck over a few winters. Just to be clear, along with same day comparisons I mention here, I have run all of these different setups for extended use in winter time conditions.
For winter use I have run ATs and MTs of different brands and tread styles. Swampers, Boggers, summer street tires, all season street tires and dedicated street winter tires. And I have also used almost every type of these listed tires both with and without studs (yep, including the boggers)
In every case, every comparison... for street use the type tire matters more by an order of magnitude over the size of the tire. And studs rule. For off road snow, size matters more (and studs do little except on something like a bare frozen creek, river or lake). And in the end it still comes back to... when all else is equal, for street use on packed snow and ice, narrow has the advantage. Once you get into untrampled snow, or even rutted up but still not packed, wider is better.
If you are just talking about the difference between a 275 and a 285, or a 305 and a 315 in the same tire... stop worrying about it, you will never be able to tell.
38 inch swampers and 40 and 44 inch Boggers, "Icelandic" 44 inch Dick Cepecks and 45 inch tractor tires have all performed well for me in deep off road snow. But none would be my choice for a winter street rig.
Been doing this for about 4 decades of real winter conditions now. My comments are all based on personal experience behind the wheel and on the tires, the majority of which has been for extended long term use with constantly changing day to day conditions.
I am fairly confident in the number and quality of the data points that make up my experience base.
Mark...