When will Landcruiser prices spike?

[Horvath]

With Toyota announcing that LCs will be discontinued in the USA after the 2021 model year -- shouldn't LC owners see a dramatic rise in the value of their existing cars?

Does this also mean that LCs will be available and will be actively developed for markets (eg Australia or Middle East) after 2021?

 

[omar rva]

Just my thoughts/opinions as someone who's been tracking this market for about 6 months but has been a "car guy" my whole life:

• I don't think there'll ever be a "dramatic rise" in our LC values. That's not how depreciation curves have ever worked unless you had the opportunity to purchase an Enzo, Chiron, Senna, etc. or an air cooled Porsche (for which you waited 25ish years for that spike). One could look at the value curves for FJ Cruisers for example to see a closer analogue to what we could expect on LCs (i.e once they hit some market value they likely will depreciate very slowly after). HE owners might see something close to what FJ Cruiser Trail Teams owners saw. On the other hand, since volumes and sales were so low it might see something like the Lotus Elise curve (some how those things always just cost $30k used).
• The other thing affecting values will be future costs (costs to own/operate/maintain). "Overlanding" and its associated vehicles are hot right now (in large part due to forums like this and social media). But right now gas is cheap and folks can't fly. What will gas prices do in the next 5 to 10 years? How will EVs further integrate into our market and what does that look like in 10 to 15 years? What will parts availability look like in 20 years? All these things may negatively or positively affect future values.
• There's a subforum here dedicated to 300 (next generation) LCs info and speculation. It seems Toyota will continue to sell them in overseas/world markets. We'll likely get a lux version badged as a Lexus. This too, can affect future values since it technically won't be as scarce.
• Once we start hitting 25 years on these and new model 70s, we can import in the US and there's a large market there too. This could adversely affect value by adding supply or positively affect it by adding hype (unmolested US market 4th gen Supras and NSXs are going for a premium now vs. 10 years ago for example).

OA

 

[Tex68w]

Who really knows but I think they will mirror what you are currently seeing with the FJC's. In a few years I expect their values to level off and HE's and late models might see some appreciation over book but I wouldn't expect them to go up by 30%+ or anything crazy like that. People want what they can't have and that is already proving to be the case as many (myself included) are suddenly rushing out to buy remaining LC's and many are paying much more than they would have if they had purchased just 6-12 months ago.

 

[Horvath]

Just my thoughts/opinions as someone who's been tracking this market for about 6 months but has been a "car guy" my whole life:

• I don't think there'll ever be a "dramatic rise" in our LC values. That's not how depreciation curves have ever worked unless you had the opportunity to purchase an Enzo, Chiron, Senna, etc. or an air cooled Porsche (for which you waited 25ish years for that spike). One could look at the value curves for FJ Cruisers for example to see a closer analogue to what we could expect on LCs (i.e once they hit some market value they likely will depreciate very slowly after). HE owners might see something close to what FJ Cruiser Trail Teams owners saw. On the other hand, since volumes and sales were so low it might see something like the Lotus Elise curve (some how those things always just cost $30k used).

I apprediate your reply -- but this is a different situation.

There is demand for new Land Cruisers every year in the USA -- roughly 3,000 new LCs are sold annually. Now (some of) that demand will shift to used LCs, rego increaing prices.

• There's a subforum here dedicated to 300 (next generation) LCs info and speculation. It seems Toyota will continue to sell them in overseas/world markets. We'll likely get a lux version badged as a Lexus. This too, can affect future values since it technically won't be as scarce.
  

You're saying that the LC 300s will live on as a Lexus in the States? Interesting.

 

[4wheelgreg]

I’m not in the car business any more , but seems Jeep and the possible up coming new Bronco have been grabbing those LC customers of long time . At least the new LC buyers .
Now with the possibility of higher fuel prices keep sales low to slow market ... I could not or would not pay 100k for a New Land cruiser .
I have 2019 thats brand new and dumping another 15k in aftermarket parts to make it better ... LOL
I have been looking at the 2021 JKU Rubicon Diesel and there around 60k

 

[Tex68w]

I’m not in the car business any more , but seems Jeep and the possible up coming new Bronco have been grabbing those LC customers of long time . At least the new LC buyers .
Now with the possibility of higher fuel prices keep sales low to slow market ... I could not or would not pay 100k for a New Land cruiser .
I have 2019 thats brand new and dumping another 15k in aftermarket parts to make it better ... LOL
I have been looking at the 2021 JKU Rubicon Diesel and there around 60k

So you'll be selling yours in favor of a Jeep?

 

[4wheelgreg]

When I was ordering my King coil over shocks talking with Ben , no need to mess up a great plate form and we were in agreement that if you want to go big just do something with a straight axle , I sold my 80 before I left California was a great truck just had to many .
I actually sold a 2017 200 LC for more than I paid for that and I drove it for year ... like a Demo just when whole covid thing was kicking in .
With the new administration in office and announcing their support of EV , I knew that was coming I’m huge EV fan . Just look at young people , they moved back with mom and dad , they p[lay on there phone all day ... they want the latest and greatest technology based car , that will motivate them ... most don’t even want a car .
The 200 is a gas guzzling expensive dinosaur...
I think Toyota America realizes that not cost effective market only selling 3000 or so units a year .
If I can’t get a good deal on it I usually don’t buy it , this time last year dealers in the PA/NJ/NY could not give the Heritage models away , around here moms want a 3rd row .I could have bought 2020 heritage for 78k , now holding MSRP most dealers .
Then there just dropping the extra dough for the LX570 which I think is butt ugly grill .
I see gas price going thru the roof and will be back to smaller suvs and EV’s for the regular person .
I can’t wait to see a 200 EV conversion , chassis is heavy enough to support a battery , modify the back rear floor where the spare tire goes .
Everything has a price ... I have brand new off the showroom 2019 all stock with 1000 miles on it , clean title in hand ... 85k cash American
I seem to buy more than I sell

 

[Avalon911]

Vehicles depreciate. Maybe, over many years, the depreciation curve for the LC200 won’t look as bad as other vehicles. As far as a spike in prices, you’ll be waiting a very long time.

 

[Chewbacca]

Vehicles depreciate. Maybe, over many years, the depreciation curve for the LC200 won’t look as bad as other vehicles. As far as a spike in prices, you’ll be waiting a very long time.

Yep. I'm not expecting any kind of price increase, but the depreciation curve should be relatively flat.

 

[Big Timber]

Prices will probably get a little worse as the year goes on. Lots of dealers have already been putting premiums on new Land Cruisers. Some as much as $10K. Others are offering great deals. Depends on where you are. One thing's for sure, with this administration, fuel prices will be going up and gas guzzlers like Land Cruisers won't be as attractive in 2-3 years.

 

[4wheelgreg]

Pricing in my area easter PA / NJ some dealers are MSRP on Heritages 92k and average Base seems to be around 87k , inventory seems to be plentiful .
I don’t even look at Lexus prices , i don’t like the grill look

 

[40Man]

Since the news of discontinuation, we have already seen the "spike" by way of reduced discounts off of MSRP and higher used prices. Don't count on prices going up more on a $90k vehicle.

I would expect prices to depreciate less, similar to the late model 2nd gen Tacoma, but not as good. (A used 2015 with 50k+ miles will still sell what you could have gotten it brand new). Part of this is due to increasing costs of new vehicles, but part of it is because the 3rd gen Tacoma sucks, especially with an auto tranny.

With the Land Cruiser there will be a new version (Lexus) but there will be many that don't want it, especially if it is less off-road worthy.

The longevity of any better depreciation will depend if Toyota comes out with a Bronco competitor LC in a few years, that could move demand away from the used 200s.

The problem with an $88k rig is there are very few who will pay a high price for a used model. So expect a decent depreciation off of new sale prices before leveling off...

 

[Redbull]

The LCs always see a premium because the used buyer usually prefers an LC when looking at 200s. That's always been the case. And like others have said, the depreciation will just slow with the discontinuation. I think the price levels you see right now will hold and slowly go down.

 

[luke27617]

I have been pretty impressed with depreciation of LC even before the announcement of ending it in US. I had 16LC which I have traded in for 20LC same spec and costed me 20k. So 5K per year. I have sold the 20LC 9 months in this summer as was not driving it almost at all due to covid. Lost less than 1k on it. After driving something else that I have bought for few months I had to come back to LC. Last week bought HE and got over 9k off and was offered almost 10k off on HE demo with 2-3K miles driven by the GM. So I think depreciation may slow down further from what I have experienced and of course depreciation level depends how well you have negotiated the deal when buying new. BTW you can still get a great deal on LC. Just hit few dealers through the internet department (online chat) within couple hundred miles. Submitting price request on page will not get you the price you can buy from. Took literally less then 30 minutes to find the dealer I want to work with and have my price locked in. Definitely you will see more dealers not willing to discount than couple months ago, but there are many that do not want to hold inventory for long and willing to work with you.

 

[LCtwohundred]

• There's a subforum here dedicated to 300 (next generation) LCs info and speculation. It seems Toyota will continue to sell them in overseas/world markets. We'll likely get a lux version badged as a Lexus. This too, can affect future values since it technically won't be as scarce.

An interesting market could be people buying the LX and rebadging them to LC. Could be expensive with new imported 300 LC bumpers/wheels/etc. but it'll be the only way to get a "300" in the US until they can be legally imported (which I think is after 25 years).

 

[unclemat]

The best move Toyota could do is to simply sell 300 series in two trim options... basic one, just take a Land Cruiser and slap Lexus badge on it without the hideous grill and other fluffy undesirable features. Still KDSS, etc. Call it LX Cruiser or just Land Cruiser (why not?). Then have Lexus LX (or LX Limited) with AHC and other fluff and the hideous grill for people that are into that thing. I'd personally trade the stealth factor for perhaps better Lexus dealership experience.

Finally, Toyota would really surprise us if the 300 came with upgraded still N/A V8 with D4S... instead of some turbo, or god-forbid hybrid nonsense. One can dream. If they did, values of 200 will plummet if the package is right.

 

[Chewbacca]

The best move Toyota could do is to simply sell 300 series in two trim options... basic one, just take a Land Cruiser and slap Lexus badge on it without the hideous grill and other fluffy undesirable features. Still KDSS, etc. Call it LX Cruiser or just Land Cruiser (why not?). Then have Lexus LX (or LX Limited) with AHC and other fluff and the hideous grill for people that are into that thing. I'd personally trade the stealth factor for perhaps better Lexus dealership experience.

Finally, Toyota would really surprise us if the 300 came with upgraded still N/A V8 with D4S... instead of some turbo, or god-forbid hybrid nonsense. One can dream. If they did, values of 200 will plummet if the package is right.

Values of 100s did not plummet because the 200 came around.

 

[sdnative]

Probably right after I sell mine. At least that is what happened when I sold my 1969 Z/28 in 2000

 

[Chewbacca]

Two of my friends with families just lost jobs on Keystone. The moron and chief thinks it will help the environment but what most people don’t realize is that oil comes down on rail from Canada to TX and will continue to do so causing more “pollution”. You can’t just switch from oil to Electric overnight and even if we did, the grid couldn’t handle it. He’s great at killing jobs and that’s just the beginning. Higher fuel and energy prices will only hurt the lower and middle class. I’d be happy with an EV 200, just not at the expense of destroying more jobs. Oh and the idiot is putting a hold on public land pumping. Guess what, back to relying on foreign oil where they don’t care about the environment.

Can we keep politics out of MUD?

 

[CanadianRockyCruiser]

I'll make this simple. Land Cruiser 200 series prices will "spike" when they become more rare. In the 1990's and early 2000's, you could find restoration candidate FJ40's for <$4000 CAD all over the place. Now, you would be lucky to find one for $10,000 CAD. That's because a lot of them just sat around rusting in someone's backyard. Now the FJ40 is a pretty rare find, yet still highly desired (at least a decent restoration candidate), so they are more expensive. The same concept applies to the 60's, 80's, 100's, and one day the 200 as well. The "Land Cruiser" badge is a bit of a cult vehicle. It will retain it's reputation as the great do-anything SUV, and when 200's become more rare, I'll bet the depreciation value will stop. However, don't expect to buy a brand new 2021 Heritage Edition and sell it for 1.5X it's sticker price. It will depreciate quickly for 5-7 years, then bottom out at 25%-40% of it's value, then increase gradually. If you want to take a leap of faith on the 200's, your best bet would be to buy rust-free 2008-2011 LC200's, put them in a time-capsule-garage, and forget about them for 15 years (don't take this as investment advice, because frankly, there are much better investments out there than vehicles).

If you are more concerned about having fun with a reliable legend, just drive one today. If you want to make money on the rarity thing, try to buy up as many 80's and 100's as you can and lock them up in said time-capsule. Those models are currently appreciating.

As an example, I bought a 2001 LX in 2010, drove it for 11 years and ~150,000km, and sold it for $6,000 more than I bought it for. Not exactly the greatest investment over 11 years, but it made driving the rig more like a deposit.