Snow

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here in the shenandoah valley, there are estimates of up to 40"... based on wxrisk's forecast.
 
Time to stock up on beer and toilet paper!
 
Where's Dave Bolvin when you need him?
 
Most of the precipitation tends to skip manassas when the system is Easternly. Think it has to do with the air at the base of the "mountains" creating a high pressure pocket near haymarket. I'm no formal weather scientist though.
 
iptman said:
@Stumpalama you get a snow blower yet?
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Nope... I would just be throwing rocks everywhere. I'll just have to drive the 4skinner all over it. Or the landlord has a plow guy that does it... we'll see.
 
I was chatting with a buddy of mine who works for Agriculture about this. He pays attention to weather forecasts as part of his job. This led to an interesting discussion about weather modeling. Basically, the European supercomputers (ECMWF) are predicting 24" in the Washington Metro Area. The European model is superior because it models in four dimensions with the fourth dimensions [time] cycling back and forth between the past, present and future to update, among other things like more computing power.

Sad that the U.S. is behind in this area. To date the European model has predicted significant storms like Sandy to within a 3-4% standard deviations of the mean (when predicting 3 days before the event). The current model has the storm drawing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening. Of course the models are more accurate as time approaches the event. So Basically we are going to get dumped on.
 
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Correct, the euro model is the gold standard. In it's most recent run a hour ago, it's moving the bulls eye south to Charlottesville....although there's certainly plenty of time for that to change, and still leaves the DC area with a monster storm.
 
Explorer4Hire said:
Well that is some serious knowledge dropping right there. Thanks for the free education.
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Actually I just read about it. The statistical part, is kind of cool because you know...the accuracy and all that "Math is fundamental" stuff from School House Rock and PSAs, back when there was only four TV channels, but I digress... Now if I could only use it at work and in life in general besides figuring a tip, how much square feet of tile I need, or how much more I cannot spend at SOR on spare parts. :bang::(
 
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iptman said:
Has anyone done the "critical hospital employee" ferrying before?
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I drove for Inova Alexandria hospital during Snowmageddon for 3-4 days. It was one of the most fun things I've done in DC. Driving down I-95, not a vehicle in site to either horizon. Urban wheeling at its finest, and you get to feel good about doing it. I've done it once or twice since then, but the storms have each fizzled out.

Weird thing is, I called Alexandria Inova this morning to ask if they were taking volunteers' names yet, and the main desk receptionist told me "they're not doing that this year." I'll call around to some other hospitals and see what's available.

If you find one that needs people, usually you can just show up, particulary if it's as bad as they say. No need to sign up ahead of time. Just take a copy of your insurance card and your DL.
 
I just got off the phone with my Captain. At some point tomorrow the county will be setting up the EOC (emergency operations center) to prepare for all this mess. As you can imagine, the coordination of logistics gets overwhelming for the county agencies. Anyway, he said once the EOC is up they will provide a number to contact them for people who are able to assist with capable vehicles. He said he would poke around and find out more info earlier if he can get it. He is also a volly in Culpeper so he could provide information for that area as well. Anything I hear I will pass on in this thread.
 
Whole new level of panic in Burke. Gas station lines are wrapped around the block.
Just watched 3 different old ladies almost run down pedestrians with their cars...on purpose. Apparently water falling from the sky means no water to drink. Somewhat expecting there to already be overturned cars on fire in the ditch.
I already have cabin fever too.
 
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