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Here's a few examples of daily case rates:

Russia: Moscow's mayor recently urged people to distance themselves, but no real order to do so.
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South Dakota: "This is just the flu."
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Arizona: Ordered to use social distancing 03/30.
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And the entire US, with many hard hit states ordering social distancing 03/20-30/25:
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@92LXAZ - a quote from the story: "No. I don’t see a reason to do it because of a lower-risk epidemic.” seems to be a denial that this pandemic is from a bug that is far more deadly than seasonal flu. For the entire seasonal flu season from mid 2019 to now, 38 people have died of the flu here in Idaho. 43 people have died of covid since March 11. The tally of deaths per day have not reached zero. Nor have new infections reached zero. In China, rates of infections have slowed, but are also non-zero. And the statement the disease runs a course and reaches zero in 70 days, well, denies the reported facts. How can it be meaningful when the US has been at this for more than 70 days are we certainly are not at zero, either.

And, what many of these "go back to normal" promoters fail to acknowledge is that the numbers they use are low only because we took measures to slow - not stop - the spread. Had nothing been done, we would not be this calm.

ps: as for the author's assertion covid is seasonal (become endemic) and may come back in fall? Well, it's unknown. What is known is the virus did well in both the northern and southern hemispheres, independent of the seasons. The second wave will - in my opinion - happen as soon as people start gathering again. Florida will be fun to watch now that a few mayors are opening beaches and bars will soon follow. If numbers there start increasing again rather than staying flat, we have good indication the bug is still haunting us -- and if the curve stays flat or even drops, that too will be good information.
 
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And here's flu death by week in Arizona (2019-2010):
www.azdhs.gov

AZDHS | Epidemiology & Disease Control - Flu

Working to monitor, prevent and control diseases in Arizona through education, immunization and research.
www.azdhs.gov www.azdhs.gov
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And COVID-19 numbers, but daily.
www.azdhs.gov

AZDHS | Epidemiology & Disease Control - Highlighted Infectious Disease for Arizona

Working to monitor, prevent and control diseases in Arizona through education, immunization and research.
www.azdhs.gov www.azdhs.gov
1587241736737.png


Bottom line, right now COVID-19 is killing as many Arizonan's in a day as the flu was killing in a week during the worst of the flu season.
 
Valid points. Again only bringing more info. I believe less than half of what main stream media says (and decreasing) and less than 1% of what China says. They've now updated there deaths to 50% higher than what was originally reported, so validates what you're saying. But on the other hand here NY just today added 3700 deaths to their count who never tested positive for it but were presumed to have had it :meh:. Again what to believe. That can be said for a lot of our estimates I'm sure. But we'll never know. We can both throw out charts and stats and predictions all we want, none of it will ever be accurate. I lean towards the conspiracy side since Trump is hated by media and other powers so much. Love this thanks for posting.
#wwg1wga
 
I generally dislike anyone who lies to my face; and someone who lies continuously is not really hated, but easily ignorable. tRump fits that categorically. I listen to some news outlets and shudder (Sinclair and FOX are still letting commentators call this bug the flu and a hoax - which are out right lies). Some other outlets, while not perfect, are at least trying to bring information forward rather than intentionally spreading disinformation. But I also temper most everything with a lot of research and independent study. I read ABC, NBC, VOA, BBC, DW, NHK, CNN, and even tap RT once in a while for my fix on propaganda. I ignore FOX and my local Sinclair affiliate. I also mute my TV whenever tRump is going to speak on any newscast. I've been a registered republican since I registered to vote the first time, and for many years I voted a strict GOP ballot. But when tRump was elected (I did not vote for him), I changed my registration to independent. He crosses a line with me. Nixon was a crook, and he had too many cronies in his administration, but tRump's corruption dwarfs anyone in the history of the office. And the incompetence of his administration during this crisis is criminal.

I don't hate tRump so much as recognize a he is a fascist criminal; he is a malignant narcissistic; and he is quite ugly. He is bad for the nation in general with zero aptitudefor any sort of management, it's reasonably obvious his only reason for gaining the office was his stint on TV. By that factor, why not elect one of the Kardashian gals next? Isn't one of them a self made billionaire? She should do as well as tRump, probably better especially since she's never declared bankruptcy.

But I digress. Back to covidity ...

Similar to the flu, there are deaths that happen where something leads to lung inflammation and death. Most of the numbers reported as flu are instead referred to as "flu-like" or officially Influenza-like illness (ILI) because many cases aren't diagnosed by testing. It's simply what happens when the system is overwhelmed. But even with lack of testing results, it's not unreasonable to assert a person died of a bug flaring up in society when they have similar symptoms. China, for example, noted deaths as covid when a person died of respiratory failure due to lung fluid buildup that showed on x-ray: if the pathology is similar, not really a bad call. In what I've read, not that I am any expert, states are doing the same. And it's important to remember, this is what has been done with the flu for years: it's nothing conspiratorial at all.

I just hope that when this is all over, 1) I am not a victim; 2) We have over-reacted; 3) The government takes the risk of a new bug coming along a bit more seriously and actually maintains plans to deal with it effectively and efficiently.
 
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As for China changing how they reported data: they did that months ago - when they began including patients who showed similar symptoms based on x-ray data.

This chart shows the timing: it's that large jump mid-February.
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And it is pretty obvious in the daily data:
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I detect a raging case of Trump Derangement Syndrome. The testing mechanisms aren't widely available, but the classic symptoms present in obvious and familiar ways :)

There are some nice side effects to everyone staying home. It's like going back in time for those who venture out. The roads are clear, gas is cheap, the hiking trails less crowded, and it's wonderful to enjoy the outdoors during the springtime in AZ!
 
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There's a new study out of Santa Clara county that shows there could be 50-85 times as many infections as known cases. If true, that brings the mortality rate in line with the flu.
 
@Clunky - let's hope. But the studies done to date that share their data for peer review have suggested it's around 14 out of 100 cases that are being reported, or 7x.

US Death rates for flu this season is 0.06% to 0.11%; US covid death rate is sitting at 5.28% (not accounting for infection delays). Which, very very oddly presents a range of 47.8 to 85.8 ... that's just too much of a coincidence for my skeptical viewpoint. Almost like they started with the two rates they needed and determined the "correct" numbers to make covid sound more like the flu. This wouldn't be the first time a poorly designed study has been published.

I'll maintain my distance until the infection rates are confirmed by more than one county that wants to get back to work.

ps: started reading the study: OUCH! They arbitrarily capped samples from some areas with known high infection rates. This is known as sample bias, and effectively assumes the areas with higher infection rates are being ignored because they didn't like what they saw.
"In addition, we capped registrations from overrepresented areas."

Here's why it is a very bad idea: Sampling bias - Scholarpedia

Lol, and now I get to how they manipulated the data: "Second, we re-weighted our sample by zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, Asian, Hispanic, and other). We chose these three adjustors because they contributed to the largest imbalance in our sample, ..."

I stopped reading at that point.

ps: Not dismissing the study in it's entirety, just feeling very dubious about the way they manipulated their data without explaining why they felt the need to.
 
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Just read an interesting article regarding grocery stores. It got me to thinking... When has any store ever even considered closing it's doors due to the flu of any other bug? When has a store or meat factory been shut down because workers were dying? When has the flu been responsible for deaths of health care workers?

These things have probably happened in the past, but all at once and in large enough numbers for anyone but the CDC/WHO folks to take notice?
 
Broke a tooth (though I knew this day was coming) - yep - best of times for things like this to happen. So the first thing I see today when I start filling out the paperwork? Two pages of why it is a bad idea to seek emergency treatment during a pandemic, and a place to sign.
 
GWcruiser said:
And now data is coming is that you believe tRump's prognostications at your own peril: Outcomes of hydroxychloroquine usage in United States veterans hospitalized with Covid-19

Seems malarial drugs are actually killing more COVID-19 than they are helping.
Click to expand...

You seem to be way too invested in the President being wrong. Politics should not be a part of this in any way, but they are in ways that make me nauseous.

This study is a retrospective analysis of an uncontrolled non-randomized data set, so you would also be at your peril to not believe this may work as is a member of my family.

My wife has an 85 year old uncle in the ICU at Johns Hopkins with COVID-19 who is not being given this treatment and will likely be dead by morning. The doctors won't prescribe it and his nuclear family has accepted their recommendations against trying it. This may very well be the correct decision, but it is not possible to be sure which is my point.

I look forward seeing more data of better quality.

I would also like to see quality data for a protocol that includes zinc sulfate. There are many anecdotal reports that HC+Azith is less/not effective without zinc also being administered as part of the protocol.
 
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Sweden is still continuing to do very well without a shutdown! This is something EVERYONE should be enthusiastically excited about as it is showing an evidence-based path towards getting back to economic activity.

Some other interesting developments:

-Areas high in Nitrogen Dioxide pollution are closely correlated with higher fatality rates. This doesn't necessarily mean causation and these same areas are also densely populated and have high use of mass transit.

-Another study out of USC indicates that the actual number of infections could be 55 times higher than what's been confirmed via testing. This would put the mortality rate at about .001, which is the same as the flu.

-People are waking up and protesting the absurdity of the shutdown!! This is great news and will help us get back on our feet again.

Some interesting points made recently by Professor Johan Giesecke, who currently serves as an advisor to the Swedish Government, was the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC), and a former advisor to the director general of the WHO (he’s now retired and serves as an advisor to the WHO only in an honorary capacity).

  • UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
  • The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
  • This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
  • The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
  • The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
  • The paper was very much too pessimistic
  • Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
  • The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
  • The results will eventually be similar for all countries
  • Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
  • The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
  • At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available
 
Yeah, those protests.

With slavery flags and assault rifles, it looks like the thunderdome edition of the KKK.

Sloppy messaging.
 
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