COVID-19 chat

[GWcruiser]

The hideous part of this bug is you are contagious before you can know it; and for up to 9 days after you are "cured."

The six foot rule helps, and being in separate vehicles helps. You'll be touching fuel pumps who knows who have handled, and where those hands have been: sanitizer a must. And if you do get out to chat, stand crosswind. Common sense stuff.

But some of us are avoiding the grocery store, and anywhere a sick person might be. The risk of death is just too real right now: 65, with any issue is not a good position to be in to catch this thing. 1 in 4 chance of needing a hospital bed? No thank you.

 

[Funner]

The hideous part of this bug is you are contagious before you can know it; and for up to 9 days after you are "cured."

The six foot rule helps, and being in separate vehicles helps. You'll be touching fuel pumps who knows who have handled, and where those hands have been: sanitizer a must. And if you do get out to chat, stand crosswind. Common sense stuff.

But some of us are avoiding the grocery store, and anywhere a sick person might be. The risk of death is just too real right now: 65, with any issue is not a good position to be in to catch this thing. 1 in 4 chance of needing a hospital bed? No thank you.

Isn't only 4% of people that get this have a serious critical issue? I have a hunch that we will look back at this and wonder what the hysteria was about.

 

[Clunky]

Isn't only 4% of people that get this have a serious critical issue?

It's going to turn out to be WAY less than 4% once we get widespread testing. The mortality rate for anyone under 70 or without pre-existing conditions is also going to be miniscule.

 

[GWcruiser]

The probability of dying from it varies by age. If you are 25 the probability is low, well under 1%. If you are 80, you are looking at 15% chance of dying from it.

Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

The chart is based on older data from China, but Italy and Spain are seeing similar rates. Germany, for whatever reason, is lower.

The thinking it will go away and we can live our lives again is simply based on hope. If the stay at home orders are lifted, there will be a second wave because only 500,000 Americans have caught the bug, and the other 326.5 million have no immunity. Why? Because people are too stupid to stay home when they feel sick.

ps: as for minuscule? Seasonal flu kills 5.9 out of 100,000, or 0.0059%. Flu epidemics with more deadly strains kill at 0.2% rates overall, 1918 flu pandemic the exception at 1.1% because WWI trench fighting exacerbated the symptoms; with very young and very old getting hit much harder. In both non-wartime cases, flu death rates are lower than the COVID-19 rate across the board. Even if the final COVID-19 numbers are half what is being seen today, this bug is still more deadly than the 1918 flu. You really don't want to share it with friends and neighbors; relatives? Well, that rich uncle may need a visit.

 

[Clunky]

because only 500,000 Americans have caught the bug, and the other 326.5 million have no immunity.

This is not an accurate statement. There are 500K diagnosed cases, but I've seen estimates that the actual number of people who've had the virus could be 10-100X more than the number diagnosed. We know that it's more contagious than the flu and we know a significant number of people who "catch" the virus are asymptomatic.

Whatever the estimates, we won't know real numbers until we have widespread antibody testing.

Policy considerations are another matter. Shutting down the economy based on wholly unreliable data models has to stop. This cannot become a new normal. People need to be given reliable information and the ability to make their own decisions. The show must go on.

 

[GWcruiser]

This is not an accurate statement.

Well, it is an accurate statement; it represents facts as known. And yes, there are quite likely more than that number of cases. If we use 10 times that number (5 million infected), we are still left with 323 million souls who can catch the bug. If it is off by 100x (50 million infected), which I think is very unlikely based of tests per 100k worldwide, we would still have 278 million to infect.

I'm not an expert in this. But the math and statistics are painting a grim reality that this SARS virus is bad, very contagious, and kills more than other bugs the world is used to. That said, I'm all for opening up the economy for any registered Republican, at least that'd get 50% of the nation back to work and be a fair test of how well social distancing is working (dems that are staying home will be the control). Then, add the caveat if I catch the bug from those not social distancing my survivors get to sue their collective arses for negligent homicide.

ps: Here's an early paper on undocumented cases: they figure a documented rate of 14% for their modeling; using that figure, we have about 7x the documented number of cases. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221.full.pdf

 

[Clunky]

Well, it is an accurate statement; it represents facts as known.

As you go on to state in the rest of your post, it does not represent facts as known. It is a fact that we know there is some number of the untested population that either has the C19 virus now - or had it at some previous time.

they figure a documented rate of 14% for their modeling

Thanks, but I've had enough of "experts" highly inaccurate models. They don't have enough data to build an accurate model, so they're just guessing like everyone else.

What we don't have to guess about with this latest "big scary crisis" is that all the policy solutions involve taking away freedom and implementing MASSIVE government programs without consideration of the cost.

I hope we start to see widespread pushback very soon - especially from people who work in jobs that require their physical presence. It will be a good sign that this country hasn't completely lost its balls yet.

 

[Funner]

The problem with experts and modeling is they always work on worst case scenarios as a baseline. When I start seeing words like “assuming x” or if we take a factual number and “multiply that by say 10 times”, or “we could see”, I know people are talking out of their asses and have no idea where things are headed.

 

[GWcruiser]

Models on complex subjects are problematic and difficult, and sure, they depend on a few assumptions based on existing data - for example the one I mentioned above predicts 86% of COVID cases are going unreported. That is based on real factual data of reported cases, illnesses and deaths that are not attributed to cases that had documented testing. Models also predict how rockets fly, what the next best gizmo will be, and how much TP is going to be sold next week. In general, our lives would be a total mess without them.

As for how well any novel function can be modeled, this chart is based on 100% recorded fact: please tell me where there is any hint of a slowdown, and that it is safe to go outside.

 

[GWcruiser]

@Clunky - It's funny to see 'freedom" mentioned here, as if we aren't used to laws that reduce our freedoms. I am not free to rob a bank. I am not free to kill someone. So rules that are placed to prevent people from inadvertently infecting others and making them sick, or even killing them, seem fair and responsible.

 

[Funner]

And it's why models are so frequently wrong, because they are based on many assumptions. Time will tell how accurate the models were in the beginning, but we only have 9 more years until the planet is too far gone to save, so, yeah we will see...

 

[92LXAZ]

Hard to believe anything, models, stats, doctors. Had a guy at work miss 21 days of work and didn't even have it. They wouldn't even test him. Ended up being bronchitus in the end. The Lamestream media caused most of the panic IMO. Yes it's serious but thought it could have been handled better. How that is I have no idea. But with people freaking out over toilet paper something definitely not right. Plus I'm tired of all the talk of what and how China is doing. It's literally a communist country that I'm pretty sure doesn't like the US, so why believe anything they say?! Nothing against or debating anything anyone else has said. Only some of my own thoughts. So many other things, and neither do I disregard some of the conspiracy theories. Keep it going, great to vent.

 

[LandCruiserPhil]

I was not acting politically correct and it was suggested I leave and isolate. Really, Don’t try to talk me out of a good time. Five days and no one to come in contact with as far I could see.

 

[GWcruiser]

How's the water temp, Phil? Warm enough for a dip?

 

[GWcruiser]

Regarding assumptions for models. They assume things like how many people make intimate contact with others - enough to actually transmit to bug. They base these assumptions off of prior knowledge of other well studied viruses with similar traits. Sure, it is a guess, but a very good guess. As for being pessimistic or optimistic, you have to assume the worst case because you do not know in advance what the public will do. So you assume they do nothing different. Then, to buffer this worst case, you use predictable behavior to generate a best case scenario. The actual outcome will be somewhere in-between.


For modeling: If one person infects 2 others, and the bug incubates for 4 days before those two are infectious, you can plot the growth over time.

You start on day 0 with one person, and let the bug run it's course (do nothing):

Day 0 = 1
Day 4 = 3
Day 8 = 9
Day 12 = 27
Day 16 = 81
Day 20 = 243
Day 24 = 729
Day 28 = 2,187
...
Day 60 = 14,328,907

It is simple math. Let's hope the smarter persons in the room make the decisions.

 

[Stepmurr]

I was not acting politically correct and it was suggested I leave and isolate. Really, Don’t try to talk me out of a good time. Five days and no one to come in contact with as far I could see.


View attachment 2269454

That Salt River looks familiar . . .

 

[Stepmurr]

It is simple math. Let's hope the smarter persons in the room make the decisions.

I prefer to be the Covidiot that ignores math and stays out of the room and away from the other Covidiots . . .

 

[LandCruiserPhil]

How's the water temp, Phil? Warm enough for a dip?

No way snow runoff still underway. Very warm during the day makes it great for heating up the black bag providing a nice warm shower at the end of the day.

 

[AK101]

It's gonna be ok....some folks need to take some deep cleansing breaths and relax

 

[medtro]

Regarding assumptions for models. They assume things like how many people make intimate contact with others - enough to actually transmit to bug. They base these assumptions off of prior knowledge of other well studied viruses with similar traits. Sure, it is a guess, but a very good guess. As for being pessimistic or optimistic, you have to assume the worst case because you do not know in advance what the public will do. So you assume they do nothing different. Then, to buffer this worst case, you use predictable behavior to generate a best case scenario. The actual outcome will be somewhere in-between.


For modeling: If one person infects 2 others, and the bug incubates for 4 days before those two are infectious, you can plot the growth over time.

You start on day 0 with one person, and let the bug run it's course (do nothing):

Day 0 = 1
Day 4 = 3
Day 8 = 9
Day 12 = 27
Day 16 = 81
Day 20 = 243
Day 24 = 729
Day 28 = 2,187
...
Day 60 = 14,328,907

It is simple math. Let's hope the smarter persons in the room make the decisions.

I like to plot as a simulator person.