How long before price drops below MSRP?

[vespadaddy]

I test drove an FJ this past weekend. Very, very nice truck.

The sales guy was hyping the limited availability f the FJ, stating that people that don't buy soon risk a 5-6 month wait for an FJ Cruiser.This I do not beleive.


He also claimed that some un named dealer in CA offered to buy this dealerships ENTIRE allotment of FJ Cruisers for next year, at MSRP. (The dealer was in Maplewood, MN). This I do not beleive.

It is the dealer's job to try and harness the hype and limited availability of these trucks--it is what he's paid to do.

That said, I disagreed ith his assertion that these vehicles will always be in high demand. He used the Prius to buttress his argument, as there are still waiting lists in MN to get a Prius.

I think that demand will fall off a bit, and supply will pick up.

Here's the question: When do YOU think prices will fall below MSRP?

I am hoping that I can buy an FJ in Nov. or Dec. I'll probably start by contacting the internet sales manager in the middle of the month, in hopes that the lure of a sale will perk them up.

Late Nov and late Dec. are the BEST times to buy here in MN, as demand falls off when the snow flies and the roads get sloppy. People like to wait for the Spring to buy new vehicles.

So when do YOU expect the prices to fall below MSRP, and why?

 

[FJCruiserOwnersGroup]

I test drove an FJ this past weekend. Very, very nice truck.

The sales guy was hyping the limited availability f the FJ, stating that people that don't buy soon risk a 5-6 month wait for an FJ Cruiser.This I do not beleive.

There are approximately 46,000 FJCs coming into the US this year, and Toyota has said that they plan on 15,000 per quarter once production has fully ramped up.

He also claimed that some un named dealer in CA offered to buy this dealerships ENTIRE allotment of FJ Cruisers for next year, at MSRP. (The dealer was in Maplewood, MN). This I do not beleive.

Every dealer I've been in contact with in California is getting FJCs in, just not always in the amounts that they'd like. There are - often - FJCs sitting on the lots unsold, unspoken for, and selling at MSRP.

It is the dealer's job to try and harness the hype and limited availability of these trucks--it is what he's paid to do.

That said, I disagreed ith his assertion that these vehicles will always be in high demand. He used the Prius to buttress his argument, as there are still waiting lists in MN to get a Prius.

That's true; the driveline on the Prius isn't produced as fast as it should be. And, honestly, the waiting lists for the Prius seem to fluctuate based on the price of gas. They're getting longer now, but as winter approaches, they'll get shorter.

And, more importantly, the Prius is purchased for a completely different purpose than the FJC is.

I think that demand will fall off a bit, and supply will pick up.

Here's the question: When do YOU think prices will fall below MSRP?

Now.

I am hoping that I can buy an FJ in Nov. or Dec. I'll probably start by contacting the internet sales manager in the middle of the month, in hopes that the lure of a sale will perk them up.

Internet sales work in a different way. You should probably contact them sooner than that to see what's coming in.

Late Nov and late Dec. are the BEST times to buy here in MN, as demand falls off when the snow flies and the roads get sloppy. People like to wait for the Spring to buy new vehicles.

So when do YOU expect the prices to fall below MSRP, and why?

They're falling now, and base models are starting to be delivered even as you read this. AAA has said that they will have 'member pricing' (which is generally $300 over invoice) sometime within the next 30-60 days.

 

[logic2]

A.) When gas goes to 3.50 a gallon and everyone starts looking and adding 4wd to hybrid vehicles...

B.) When Toyota announces the Colors and options for the 2008 model.

 

[MissFJ]

...That said, I disagreed ith his assertion that these vehicles will always be in high demand. He used the Prius to buttress his argument, as there are still waiting lists in MN to get a Prius.
...So when do YOU expect the prices to fall below MSRP, and why?

I sold my Prius for more than I bought it for. Gas prices are making people crazy. They'd rather have a high car payment for cheaper fuel, rather than a mediocre payment with mediocre fuel prices. Six of one, half dozen of the other.

Maybe I'm looking at this wrong, but I don't want to see it below MSRP and have my vehicle keep it's value. Not that I ever plan on selling my FJC!

 

[logic2]

I sold my Prius for more than I bought it for. Gas prices are making people crazy. They'd rather have a high car payment for cheaper fuel, rather than a mediocre payment with mediocre fuel prices. Six of one, half dozen of the other.

Maybe I'm looking at this wrong, but I don't want to see it below MSRP and have my vehicle keep it's value. Not that I ever plan on selling my FJC!

I hear ya - I just sold my 03' J33P Rubicon on EBAY before before buying my FJC and I opted for the 3-day auction. It sold the morning after I placed the ad, and the guy bought it over the phone without inspecting it....

I hope the demand stays high as well, and I think it will.

I do believe that if Toyota simply "mentions" they're "considering" offering a Diesel version in 2008, along with the added color options of Red, etc... several people would imediately get over their (have to have it right now) fever like I had for the past 10 months....and cancel their orders.

Personally, I'm happy with my Silver FJC and ain't finished tricking it out yet

 

[vespadaddy]

I would imagine that it will be quite some time beforewe hear of the '08's, no?

As far as the MSRP price holding firm.....I seriously doubt that it will for more than a few months (if that). Enjoy the status of having one of the first on your block, because they'll be selling for less than you paid within 6 months or less.

Nov and Dec are terrible months for auto dealers up here in MN--which means they are great months for auto Buyers.

 

[FJCruiserOwnersGroup]

Do you honestly think that these trucks will continue to sell at full MSRP for very long? Honestly?

I think you're not understanding what I've alluded to, which is that you can't focus on the money the way you're doing. It's not about the MSRP, it's about the value of the rig. Two completely different things.

For the sake of argument, let's say that when the new 2008 FJC (new and improved with no blind spots, a factory 3" lift, the perfect tires, factory ARB winch bumpers (front and rear), sunroof and now in tan and red) hits the ground in a year and four months the current 2007 FJC (which sold for $30K) will have a KBB value of $26K.

Let's say that you wait until the end of the model year run - a year and two months - and manage to find an FJC still for sale and you pay $300 over invoice for it (which, if you're a AAA member, isn't too much of a stretch). You end up paying $28K for a $30K rig. You beat my price by $2K.

Of course, I got to drive my truck for a full year and two months. Is that worth the extra $2K that I paid? Hell, yes!

At the end of the year, our trucks are worth the same amount of money ... but I got to go to Moab, maybe some Trail Team events, 54 weekends worth of off-road fun stuff, driving up in the mountains to my cabin and fishing without having to rent a 4x4 ... and by that time, my truck is set up exactly the way I want it.

Is that worth the whopping $5 a day it cost me to get the truck now, rather than later? Yup...I just had to cut out one Venti Breve White Chocolate Mocha Espresso a day.

I can live with that.

 

[vespadaddy]

First, thanks for keeping it civil. I retract my 'Good Day!'.

Perhaps we are living in two different economic realities. I'm a stay at home dad, living on my wife's paycheck and what extra cash I can earn selling houses on nights and weekends. With a big (for us anyway) house payment due every month and another kid on the way, $$ is tight. I also like to roadrace motorcycles, which is about as affordable as a crack cocaine habit.

I don't have the luxury of not focusing on the $$ when I consider large purchases, especially if I want to continue to enjoy my other hobbies. I have found that if I DO focus on the $$ when I buy stuff, I am able to buy more stuff, of better quality, which often grants me a little more 'fun'. More fun = good!


I won't be waiting for 14 months to buy an FJ Cruiser at 28k. I'll probably be able to swing it in Nov or Dec of this year (as you yourself pointed out via AAA pricing, or via a fleet or internet dealer). That makes it more like 8 months, or 32-odd weekends, tops, right?

In the end, it comes down to a decision: Is it worth it to pay a little more, and get it sooner, or pay a little less, and wait a few months?

In any event, I hope you now understand that I am not an 'FJ-Basher' (though I'm not a mindless fanboy either). This looks like a great truck, and a decent value (even at MSRP). I want one too, I just want to get the best deal possible.

 

[singlespeed]

vespadaddy i'm with you. i don't see how paying 3k+ more to have it now and not a couple of months later is worth it. 6 months from now we will all have one and we will have paid less and have smaller payments. another reason i'm waiting is because dealerships are so full of sh*t. i've been told everything from "toyota is only making 8,000 of them ever" to the factory 17" alloys aren't available, toyota couldnt produce them. the only wheel available is the $3,000 BBS upgrade." I don't even remember asking them anything because i can pick up a brochure and read it myself. i then know about them than 90% of the salespeople. internet sales ive used before and paid a couple hundred over invoice. what in the world is up FJCruisers owners group"s a** is puzzling. i think it is wierd people on these forums feel it is necessary to ask permission to buy/mod/wash/change oil/etc.. their vehicles. do they need handholding for everything?

 

[beaufort-fj60]

the local dealer here sold/deliverd 12 the first week, and is selling the hell out them. Not one of them were sold to a person that lives anywhere near here. this is at sticker and probably below if you ask

 

[Beowulf]

... what in the world is up FJCruisers owners group"s a** is puzzling. i think it is wierd people on these forums feel it is necessary to ask permission to buy/mod/wash/change oil/etc.. their vehicles. do they need handholding for everything?

You're going to be fun to have around. Hopefully you'll learn how to type before you get your truck.

The poster asking about the oil change was more specificaly asking about the switch to synthetic oil. Valid question.
The posters asking about waxing the vehicle and voiding the warranty also had valid questions.

-B-

 

[thatsricci]

honestly....

Honestly...

Dealers here are still pushing them off the lots in under 24hours with a $5,000 markup. It's going to depend what market you are in. People want these trucks and will pay whatever to have them now in SoCal.

Also, it's summer!!!! well summer all year round here, but for the rest of you... why let your new car take the toll of a cold-starting salt infested winter first before you break it in??

I'm originally a north-easter so i know all about that

 

[vespadaddy]

I have 2 points in regards to recent postings on this thread. OK, 3.

#1 Dunno what's up with people's eagerness to delve into less than civil communication. Let's all play nice, shall we?

#2 I personally do not wish for this thread to fade into quiet obscurity. These truck WILL fall below MSRP. The question is when, not if. Vehicles are not an investment that will appreciate, or even hold their value, they are a consumable commodity. I would like to know WHEN these trucks start selling for less than MSRP. Any nws on AAA pricing yet?

#3 If this truck in't capable of starting and running in cold weather, I don't want it. That said, I am sure that it will function just fine in a MN winter. I am also sure that buying in the start of a MN winter will save me some serious cash ;-p

Vespadaddy

 

[FJCruiserOwnersGroup]

I have 2 points in regards to recent postings on this thread. OK, 3.

#1 Dunno what's up with people's eagerness to delve into less than civil communication. Let's all play nice, shall we?

#2 I personally do not wish for this thread to fade into quiet obscurity. These truck WILL fall below MSRP. The question is when, not if. Vehicles are not an investment that will appreciate, or even hold their value, they are a consumable commodity. I would like to know WHEN these trucks start selling for less than MSRP. Any nws on AAA pricing yet?

#3 If this truck in't capable of starting and running in cold weather, I don't want it. That said, I am sure that it will function just fine in a MN winter. I am also sure that buying in the start of a MN winter will save me some serious cash ;-p

Vespadaddy

I've got deposits at a few different dealerships, and an order of one supposedly coming in next month (that same dealership has already had two that were pretty much exactly what I wanted - Sun Fusion 6spd with just about nothing - and they've both sold as soon as the salesfloor found out that the internet department was hiding it. On an up note, the ID is getting better at playing hide the FJC; this one stayed behind a cargo truck in the corner for three days before they had to give it up!). Probably the best thing to do is get yourself on a list and have them call you when what you want shows up. I'm getting calls every few days ... I just wish my money would hurry up and get here...

 

[vespadaddy]

Nope, I don't have the cash right now either. I need to seel a truck and a couple of houses first.

That said, if I had the cash now, I would still wait for Nov or Dec, as I still suspect that the demand will slack off as the supply increases, and I'll get a better deal.

Some would rather have it now, and pay sticker, and others would rather wait, and save a couple thouand bucks.

Both are valid options.

 

[Kasprzak]

I just wanted to add to the mix. Toyota is even lowballing the value of this truck. The residual they have set at 36 months is kinda low IMO. They have the residual set at like 48 or 49% from a few buyers that I have talked to. So those of you who cannot afford cash but have excellent credit would be much better waiting until msrp goes away. you have a 30,000$ Fj selling at msrp which is going to have the same residual 48% now that it does when it is selling for say 26-27K though 3k doesn't seem like a lot, 88$ a month on a lease payment does make a difference to me and that does not even include the extra tax money you pay. That 88$ a month to me goes into upgrades, bumpers, and tires. If you add availability issues and getting the one you want versus settling for one you don't and I personally plan on waiting myself. If you have the cash by all means go for it, you have earned it. Being a new model year what happens when 30 new must have options come out and you have a car which you are 4000K-6000k upside down or more, which is not unheard of in new cars after one year. While 100$ a month may not matter to you, I would rather have a nice low lease payment which is much easier to get out of when the new must have comes out. Why risk buying high demand and lose on it later. My current rig wheels just fine so I haven't missed out on those moab trips and camping issues mentioned above. I look for Toyota to pick up a better residual and wait for the low lease rates they are so famous for on their entire product line. Hell, for my new 2005 Toyota Tundra double cab 33K truck the 36 month residual was close to 62%.48% and 49% on the Fj. I personally look for Toyota to trust the product before I will.

 

[bcripe]

FJ is niche rig. There will be lots used in a year or two.

 

[chriscruiser]

Don't pay over MSRP, the dealer had mine on the lot for $34K and I got it for MSRP which was below 28K. Since the first ones are hitting the floors they are being sold quickly because the FJ has a pretty large following and has been one of those very anticipated vehicles mostly because of the FJ heritage and the fact that the final product was nearly identical to the concept.

To me the FJ is one of those vehicles that unless you know the heritage is not appreciated. I love mine...could careless about what others thing...if prices go down I'll get one for the wife too since she love it!

 

[vespadaddy]

I do agree that the price will fall below MSRP, but I don't agree that

"the FJ is one of those vehicles that unless you know the heritage is not appreciated."

I don't know much about the heritage of the FJ badge, and while it is fun to read about, it doesn't really influence my desire for the truck.

I want one because it has full time 4wd (I'll be getting the 6 speed), which is nice for the slick MN roadways, it has what sounds like pretty fantastic off road capabilities for a stock truck, it has Toyota badges (Honda would have been OK too, as far as reliability goes), it seats 5, looks really nice (styling), and it is priced right. Nothing in this paragraph requires the heritage of the FJ line.

 

[mapleton cruiser]

it seats 5


yeah , if three of them are midgets ! dont get me wrong i love my fj but i would not buy one if i was buying it based on it being a 5 passenger vehicle, have you ever sat in the backseat?

im not saying you based your decision on that just saying i wouldnt