Wanted Can we expect an increase in inventory?

Year

2013

Vehicle Model

1. 200 Series

Mileage

12345

Hi everyone, new member here. Excited to join the LC club soon, and learn from you all.

I've been looking for 2013-2016 LC200 for about 2 months now, and I've seen inventory dwindle. For example, a nationwide search for any used Land Cruiser on Carmax used to have around 10 results. Today its 1 used LC (2017 for 60k) and 2 brand new 2020s for 82k.

• Any reason to assume this gets better soon? E.g., any major car auctions coming up? Or perhaps a flood of post-pandemic trade-ins? A 2021 model that will get people to upgrade?
• Does anyone know of a website that tracks nationwide inventory over time? I'm curious if I'm actually right.

Thanks!

 

[FULL T1ME]

I doubt it. People are holding on to their cars more than ever now. Maybe if Toyota really does come out with an off road LC in 2021 you’ll see more, but I’d personally prefer to stick with my 200 over a 300. Who knows though.

 

[LXstalker]

Hi everyone, new member here. Excited to join the LC club soon, and learn from you all.

I've been looking for 2013-2016 LC200 for about 2 months now, and I've seen inventory dwindle. For example, a nationwide search for any used Land Cruiser on Carmax used to have around 10 results. Today its 1 used LC (2017 for 60k) and 2 brand new 2020s for 82k.

• Any reason to assume this gets better soon? E.g., any major car auctions coming up? Or perhaps a flood of post-pandemic trade-ins? A 2021 model that will get people to upgrade?
• Does anyone know of a website that tracks nationwide inventory over time? I'm curious if I'm actually right.

Thanks!

Complete agree, inventory has seemed to vanish quickly in the last 3 weeks. Highest supply is the 2017 LX as they come off lease but even that inventory is down like 10-15% from 6 weeks ago. I think your starting point was during unusually high inventory. I was hopeful prices would decline and inventory would be high but that seems unlikely now. Give the hertz impact thread a read, the GM from Ed Martin Toyota gives some of his thoughts.

 

[Tall Pine]

^ can you please post a link to that thread? Thx

 

[FULL T1ME]

^ can you please post a link to that thread? Thx

For Sale - What will a Hertz bankruptcy do to the used 200 series market??

forum.ih8mud.com

 

[isthatalexus]

@LCtwohundred

I just posted this CL-find for community scrutiny craigslist - Found on CL: 2013 LC200 | 84,7xx mi | built | BlizPrl/Sandstone | $50k

Also, this is a good price trend link from the 'most recent 200 prices' thread: Toyota Land Cruiser Price Trends - CarGurus

 

[LCtwohundred]

Checking back in here after 2 more weeks of browsing cars for sale: it's still pretty slim pickings. Carmax benchmark today: 2 used LC200s, 2 new ones.

I have actually started to include LX570s in my search after test driving one. Should have thought of that possibility before I picked this forum name.

It seems like loads more 2013-2015 LX570s available, and they seem to be in better shape for the price. I'd have to budget extra for 17 or 18 inch wheels, and it is too bad they generally don't come with adaptive cruise control. But on the plus side I was quite impressed with AHC for the 5 minutes I test drove it.

@LCtwohundred
Also, this is a good price trend link from the 'most recent 200 prices' thread: Toyota Land Cruiser Price Trends - CarGurus

Thanks! It's nice to see the price trend, but it is too bad it doesn't tell us how many sold. BAT does a nice job of showing both in 1 graph.

 

[mcgaskins]

Checking back in here after 2 more weeks of browsing cars for sale: it's still pretty slim pickings. Carmax benchmark today: 2 used LC200s, 2 new ones.

I have actually started to include LX570s in my search after test driving one. Should have thought of that possibility before I picked this forum name.

It seems like loads more 2013-2015 LX570s available, and they seem to be in better shape for the price. I'd have to budget extra for 17 or 18 inch wheels, and it is too bad they generally don't come with adaptive cruise control. But on the plus side I was quite impressed with AHC for the 5 minutes I test drove it.



Thanks! It's nice to see the price trend, but it is too bad it doesn't tell us how many sold. BAT does a nice job of showing both in 1 graph.

If you're not looking to go crazy with mods and you don't mind the looks of the LX, it is the better value. I've had an 08 LX, 13 LC, 14 LC, and 16 LC. I thought the 08 LX with 172k miles when I sold it drove smoother and quieter than the younger LCs I had. The AHC is actually better off road in many situations too, but the LX is harder to modify due to the AHC. There are workarounds (my buddy built an LX with 37s), but they are simply more difficult to mod with fewer choices in components. If you're not going to modify or keep it tame, you will be very happy with the LX.

 

[LCtwohundred]

@mcgaskins that's great to hear, thanks for confirming my hunch on this.

My "build" plan is 17 inch wheels, AT tires (maybe go up 1 size), rock sliders, roof rack. No plans on lifting, bumpers, fuel tanks, etc. so I guess that qualifies as "tame", especially on this forum.

The LX looks are not too bad at all pre-2016. And some of the build threads make them look really cool. (eg @1world1love build)

 

[LXstalker]

Using data from CarGurus on a national level 6/9 vs 5/5, so roughly a month, for model years 2013-2019.

LX inventory down 10% (503 total)
LC inventory down 28% (152 total)

I wish I would have bought a few weeks ago, but couldn’t convince my wife to add a fourth car

 

[Eric Sarjeant]

Hi everyone, new member here. Excited to join the LC club soon, and learn from you all.

I've been looking for 2013-2016 LC200 for about 2 months now, and I've seen inventory dwindle. For example, a nationwide search for any used Land Cruiser on Carmax used to have around 10 results. Today its 1 used LC (2017 for 60k) and 2 brand new 2020s for 82k.

• Any reason to assume this gets better soon? E.g., any major car auctions coming up? Or perhaps a flood of post-pandemic trade-ins? A 2021 model that will get people to upgrade?
• Does anyone know of a website that tracks nationwide inventory over time? I'm curious if I'm actually right.

Thanks!

Inventory is drying up quick. There are only ten total 200s coming to the US for the month of July and twenty for the month of August. Compare that to about 300 on a typical month (600 for a two month period) that’s 570 fewer new cruisers for this summer. Prices are increasing and used values will rise. If you can find what you’re looking for, buy now.

 

[LXstalker]

Inventory is drying up quick. There are only ten total 200s coming to the US for the month of July and twenty for the month of August. Compare that to about 300 on a typical month (600 for a two month period) that’s 570 fewer new cruisers for this summer. Prices are increasing and used values will rise. If you can find what you’re looking for, buy now.

Thanks for the insight.

Will you continue to sell inventory at invoice or are you increasing prices?

 

[Eric Sarjeant]

Thanks for the insight.

Will you continue to sell inventory at invoice or are you increasing prices?

I typically have been selling 10-12 per month. Since the inventory is gone, I don’t have any more to sell. The next five incoming are sold at $1000 over invoice and $2000 over on Heritage. I’m sure I left money on the table but oh well... we raised the extra $1000 about 6-weeks ago. We’ll probably just keep pricing at $1000 over on base for the end of the year or until I have a million in inventory.

 

[LCtwohundred]

Inventory is drying up quick. There are only ten total 200s coming to the US for the month of July and twenty for the month of August. Compare that to about 300 on a typical month (600 for a two month period) that’s 570 fewer new cruisers for this summer. Prices are increasing and used values will rise. If you can find what you’re looking for, buy now.

Thanks @Eric Sarjeant ! Is this mostly COVID related (japanese factories shut down) or is this kind of lull also a bit expected as we get closer to the 2021 model year?

Btw, I've been browsing this forum a lot in recent months, and keep coming across your comments (and videos). Just wanted to say thanks for all your contributions, it's been super helpful. I've learned a lot.

 

[Eric Sarjeant]

Thanks @Eric Sarjeant ! Is this mostly COVID related (japanese factories shut down) or is this kind of lull also a bit expected as we get closer to the 2021 model year?

Btw, I've been browsing this forum a lot in recent months, and keep coming across your comments (and videos). Just wanted to say thanks for all your contributions, it's been super helpful. I've learned a lot.

Japanese factories didn’t full shut down like they did here. I think more-so production was cut to part time. Nothing to do with 300-series speculation. Thanks for the kind words

 

[LCCygnus]

Yes, inventory is and will be increasing.

100%

 

[LCtwohundred]

Yes, inventory is and will be increasing.

100%

Any more specific thoughts on this? The data provided by Eric and LXStalker seems to suggest the opposite.

 

[LCCygnus]

Any more specific thoughts on this? The data provided by Eric and LXStalker seems to suggest the opposite.

I believe they are quoting specific areas.

As a whole, across all of the classifieds available, I have seen a large increase in LX/LC offered for sale.

I think people who were previously living beyond their means are leaning out their dead weight, and those with robust finances are opting to sell and strategically divert the cash elsewhere.

Rich or poor, in terms of practicality during the 2020 we have had there is nothing quite as non-essential as a luxury SUV.

 

[LXstalker]

I believe they are quoting specific areas.

As a whole, across all of the classifieds available, I have seen a large increase in LX/LC offered for sale.

I think people who were previously living beyond their means are leaning out their dead weight, and those with robust finances are opting to sell and divert the cash elsewhere.

Rich or poor, in terms of practicality during the 2020 we have had there is nothing quite as non-essential as a luxury SUV.

My data is nationwide but only listings on carguru’s site, I picked that one as it had more listings than Autotrader and Cars.com. I am mainly looking at 2016+ but include 2013 as was considering those at one time. I am not including 2020 as not really looking for new cars. My sample size is ~500 LXs and ~150 LCs.

What is the source of your info and sample size? Thanks.

 

[Nola622]

Not sure where to put this but here are some recent data points on the snap-back in the used market pricing (broadly, not 200 specific obviously)

Used Vehicle Value Index

Print Market Insights Overview Index Release DateThursday, Aug 7 Mid-Month Release DateTuesday, Aug 19 View Full Release Calendar Quarterly Conference Call The next quarterly Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) conference call is scheduled for Tuesday, Jul 8 at 11am ET. Please RSVP to add...

publish.manheim.com

hat tip / source -