Wanted Can we expect an increase in inventory?

Year

2013

Vehicle Model

1. 200 Series

Location

United States

Mileage

12345

Hi everyone, new member here. Excited to join the LC club soon, and learn from you all.

I've been looking for 2013-2016 LC200 for about 2 months now, and I've seen inventory dwindle. For example, a nationwide search for any used Land Cruiser on Carmax used to have around 10 results. Today its 1 used LC (2017 for 60k) and 2 brand new 2020s for 82k.

• Any reason to assume this gets better soon? E.g., any major car auctions coming up? Or perhaps a flood of post-pandemic trade-ins? A 2021 model that will get people to upgrade?
• Does anyone know of a website that tracks nationwide inventory over time? I'm curious if I'm actually right.

Thanks!

 

[FULL T1ME]

Well I ended up pulling the trigger on this 2016 in Blue Onyx Pearl with Terra located in Colorado. It has 64k miles and was a 2 owner truck. It was a trade in late Saturday and I called first thing Monday. This is proof prices are a bit over book right now with low inventory. I’m paying $54k which is about $4k over book.

If you find the one you want right now, get it. There isn’t much out there. I pick it up Saturday and will update after that. Hope this helps.

A6859653-0459-472D-BB2B-1F42BB98B1D6.jpeg

• FULL T1ME
• Jun 17, 2020

F42AB1BB-12E1-42BA-A1C3-ADC799C4ED98.jpeg

• FULL T1ME
• Jun 17, 2020

 

[LCCygnus]

Well I ended up pulling the trigger on this 2016 in Blue Onyx Pearl with Terra located in Colorado. It has 64k miles and was a 2 owner truck. It was a trade in late Saturday and I called first thing Monday. This is proof prices are a bit over book right now with low inventory. I’m paying $54k which is about $4k over book.

If you find the one you want right now, get it. There isn’t much out there. I pick it up Saturday and will update after that. Hope this helps.

A6859653-0459-472D-BB2B-1F42BB98B1D6.jpeg

• FULL T1ME
• Jun 17, 2020

F42AB1BB-12E1-42BA-A1C3-ADC799C4ED98.jpeg

• FULL T1ME
• Jun 17, 2020

Beautiful color!

We are talking about market availability, not book value, though. Book value literally means nothing.

Its all about what else can be had for the dollars.

 

[FULL T1ME]

Beautiful color!

We are talking about market availability, not book value, though. Book value literally means nothing.

Its all about what else can be had for the dollars.

Yeah I know. I mixed this up a bit with the price thread, but someone was asking about new prices earlier in this thread. Figured sharing my data wouldn’t hurt with regards to inventory availability.

 

[LXstalker]

Well I ended up pulling the trigger on this 2016 in Blue Onyx Pearl with Terra located in Colorado. It has 64k miles and was a 2 owner truck. It was a trade in late Saturday and I called first thing Monday. This is proof prices are a bit over book right now with low inventory. I’m paying $54k which is about $4k over book.

If you find the one you want right now, get it. There isn’t much out there. I pick it up Saturday and will update after that. Hope this helps.

A6859653-0459-472D-BB2B-1F42BB98B1D6.jpeg

• FULL T1ME
• Jun 17, 2020

F42AB1BB-12E1-42BA-A1C3-ADC799C4ED98.jpeg

• FULL T1ME
• Jun 17, 2020

Really like that color combo. There is a blue one by me with 77k, looks like $55k isn’t as out of line as I initially thought.

 

[LCtwohundred]

Not sure where to put this but here are some recent data points on the snap-back in the used market pricing (broadly, not 200 specific obviously)

Used Vehicle Value Index

Print Market Insights Overview Index Release DateFriday, Dec 5 Mid-Month Release DateWednesday, Dec 17 View Full Release Calendar Quarterly Conference Call The next quarterly Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) conference call is scheduled for Tuesday, Jan 8 at 11am ET. Please RSVP to add...

publish.manheim.com

hat tip / source -

Great find. Most interesting part of that article:

Recovering retail sales are reducing vehicle supply. As used retail sales continue to recover, both retail and wholesale supply are coming down. Using a rolling seven-day estimate of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data, we see that used retail supply peaked at 115 days on April 8. Normal used retail supply is about 44 days’ supply. The most recent seven-day estimate of used retail supply is at 31 days

So used supply is down roughly 1/3rd.

 

[LCCygnus]

Great find. Most interesting part of that article:

Recovering retail sales are reducing vehicle supply. As used retail sales continue to recover, both retail and wholesale supply are coming down. Using a rolling seven-day estimate of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data, we see that used retail supply peaked at 115 days on April 8. Normal used retail supply is about 44 days’ supply. The most recent seven-day estimate of used retail supply is at 31 days

So used supply is down roughly 1/3rd.

This kind of data is nearly useless for such a niche vehicle like LC/LX because the numbers you are seeing are skewed by the vast amounts of cookie cutter cars.

Think of all the used cars available in the entire country. All those mass produced cars and pickups.

The reflection that data like this projects onto LC/LX availability/pricing is absolutely negligible. A drop in the bucket.

 

[LCtwohundred]

This kind of data is nearly useless for such a niche vehicle like LC/LX because the numbers you are seeing are skewed by the vast amounts of cookie cutter cars.

Yeah I wish there was more specific data available, but it's all we have right now. I agree it's potentially useless.

That said, I think any slightly used LX570 probably follows trends along with "cookie cutter cars" like QX80s, X5s and GLS. Or at least I assume most buyers looking for a 5 year old luxury SUV are cross shopping those, and ignore their niche off road status.

 

[LCtwohundred]

Using data from CarGurus on a national level 6/9 vs 5/5, so roughly a month, for model years 2013-2019.

LX inventory down 10% (503 total)
LC inventory down 28% (152 total)

I wish I would have bought a few weeks ago, but couldn’t convince my wife to add a fourth car

6/26:

• LX at 457
• LC at 135

So roughly down another 10% in the last 3 weeks.

 

[LXstalker]

6/26:

• LX at 457
• LC at 135

So roughly down another 10% in the last 3 weeks.

Yes, locally ones I thought were $3k over priced have sold relatively quickly with inventory way down.
I use the 2017 LX as my quick proxy and that inventory is down 15%+ in total nationally from early May.

I was close yesterday on a 2018 LC, but then when I got the out the door price the fees were $2,100 ($1500 for inspection and $600 in dealer fees). Sales guy response was, “it’s more transparent this way”. Well, yes the fees are transparent because they are listed but the online price is misleading.

At least I still have my 100 series

 

[Hawkdrivr]

6/26:

• LX at 457
• LC at 135

So roughly down another 10% in the last 3 weeks.

Nationwide CarGurus search:

LX: 337
LC: 151

Negligible bump in cruisers; but look at that LX number...continuing to plummet.

Hopefully, there’s a bunch jammed in the auction houses and numbers will increase as they figure out how to run them through online auctions faster.

Maybe this is a lack of new LX’s encouraging trade-in’s/lease turn ins?

 

[LXstalker]

Nationwide CarGurus search:

LX: 337
LC: 151

Negligible bump in cruisers; but look at that LX number...continuing to plummet.

Hopefully, there’s a bunch jammed in the auction houses and numbers will increase as they figure out how to run them through online auctions faster.

Maybe this is a lack of new LX’s encouraging trade-in’s/lease turn ins?

I’ll pick a part my own methodology......one dealer group in my area has stopped advertising on CarGuru, so has significantly skewed the numbers in my local area, I have started using Autotrader as a result.

That said I do feel like the number of LXs is down (at least for 2017-2019), this is somewhat consistent with a decline in 2017 sales which accounts for a large portion of the overall LX market.

 

[Hawkdrivr]

Love me some statistics analysis:

Liars, damned liars, and statisticians.