Covid-19

Tony_Farson

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I'll go out on a limb and say that they won't. Based on the data (and not the media), there are no indications that there will be a nationwide "surge" of acute patients who'll require hospitalization. A month and a half in and there have only been 12 deaths and 31 hospitalizations in the entire county out of 500+ confirmed cases.
 

DesertLake

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I'll go out on a limb and say that they won't. Based on the data (and not the media), there are no indications that there will be a nationwide "surge" of acute patients who'll require hospitalization. A month and a half in and there have only been 12 deaths and 31 hospitalizations in the entire county out of 500+ confirmed cases.
Kinda what I was thinking. Meanwhile do you know what they are wiping down the electronics with? If the sprays and wipes and so on release halogens (especially chlorine, bromine) you may expect a lot of premature failures this year, particularly the electrolytic caps in your power supplies. The manufacturers recommend isopropyl for good reason. Plus contamination of board surfaces can lead to unexpected shorts at higher voltages. Not that the data center should have this problem, but I'll be curious a year down the road if you hear about a spike in electronics failures from the "dirty" areas.
 
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rusty_tlc

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What Will said. We are fogging the factory with isopropyl after hours when everything is shut down, so far no explosions. Not only would chlorine based disinfectants contaminant product they would play hell with the electronics in our equipment. Virtually everything on the floor is microprocessor controlled.
 
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Whoah - how explosive is alcohol fog?
Well. Considering that the propensity for any flammable substance to detonate depends a great deal on the molecular exposure to oxygen and the strength of the container.... I wouldn't want to be within a thousand feet of a good sized room fogged with alcohol enough to see the mist floating in the air.
 

rusty_tlc

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So far no detonations. I may have misrepresented what is happening, we are using a garden sprayer to mist all the work surfaces, chairs, PC's etc.
 

DesertLake

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I read that a popular hospital disinfectant is HOCl spray. Don't know much about it but the Cl would concern me if it gets dripped on boards. I didn't find much online about it's interaction with electronics.
 

gregnash

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After you guys talking about this, I have noticed that all the Grocery stores and shops like Target are spraying down their systems with disinfectant and other cleaners. Wonder how long it will be before they start seeing their pin pads and keyboards start malfunctioning.
 

rusty_tlc

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I screwed up a Microwave keypad using Chlorine cleaners, it takes a while for the effects to present.
 

gregnash

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Well governor will be giving his update later this evening but I have gotten all the documentation and everything through work.
Basic changes are;
- Relaxing of recreational restrictions (golf, tennis, pickleball, etc. can now resume while adhering to previous guidelines)
- Non-essential businesses can now offer curbside/home delivery of retail products
- Cannibus dispensaries are now allowed to do curbside and licensed delivery services
- Drive-up/thru religious congregations can resume

All other directives are still in place until May 15, 2020. Plan makes it sound like on the 15th, the implementation of Phase 1 will begin of the NV Roadmap to Recovery. That includes the Stay At Home directive restrictions.
 

Tony_Farson

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I heard similar news today during the briefing at Renown. The area seems to be waking up without the governor's permission anyways. He needs to get out in front of it and make it appear like he's in control at this point.
 

gregnash

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I heard similar news today during the briefing at Renown. The area seems to be waking up without the governor's permission anyways. He needs to get out in front of it and make it appear like he's in control at this point.
Right... Wife and I had this discussion last night. Now that it is warming up, the gloomy weather is going away, and our "normal cycle" of feelings and whatnot are coming back around due to seasonal awareness, we are quickly hitting a point of diminishing returns. Go visit any hiking/biking trailhead on the weekends and you will see what I mean.
If he doesn't get a handle on this, and pulling the reins tighter will only cause more thrashing about, we are going to have full blown riot times.
 

Tony_Farson

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I agree. I have mixed emotions about the entire situation. I DO believe this is serious and some measures needed to be taken. I also believe there was a lot of panic knee-jerk reactions by our government caused by the media. I haven't seen a lot of perspective in the narrative they set or the way our government supported it. It is sad that the media gets to dictate our societies responses to such things. It is the ultimate example of "wagging the dog!"

Unfortunately, we cannot prove the alternate outcome (what if we did nothing?). In reality the vast majority of our country has done quite well. Places of heavy population density did not, but those were anomalies, not norms. Survival rate is four times higher than the death rate globally, and double here in the US. The high risk demographic is pretty narrow too. There is no treatment (for the virus, only symptoms) or cure and only acute cases are hospitalized and only about half those hospitalized required assisted breathing (ventilators). Standard O2 and IV therapy combined with ICU isolation protocols is the best any hospital can do right now.

All that to say this: I think we could have stopped short of pausing such a large swath of our economy. Social distancing was an excellent measure as was closure of social and sporting venues. But rolling up the sidewalks could have been overreach. That's just my .02 as one in a hospital setting and with training and experience (albeit outdated) in infection disease control and mitigation.
 
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This was never about doing the best thing. It was about making the most advantage in a political year for a party that has little to offer in the face of a worldwide economic boom. Just so happened that the disease was pretty bad just not bad enough to get worldwide populations to roll all the way over to giving up personal freedoms and private property rights. Now, they know they look like amateurs and they have to save face. Be funny if it wasn't such a travesty.
 

gregnash

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Exactly... Hell my father, who is 73 today, lives in the Sacramento Valley, has some immuno compromises (so a higher risk population) has been golfing everyday he can. He lives on his own, still goes to the store like normal, still goes golfing with his buddies and everything this entire time. Not one person he knows has gotten sick. Even he said this was absolutely unwarranted and ridiculous.

Cousins in the Bay Area (heavy populous density) on the south pennisula that are EMS and Nurses are even saying this is ridiculous. Like my cousin's wife saying that she had someone present with a case of gastric distress (severe diarrhea) and thus had to take their temp. Since they presented a high temp and gastric distress they had to treat as an extreme case. She knew the patient as a "frequent flyer" with standard gastric issues (in this case severe lactose intolerance but refused to treat) but still had to completely PPE up as though they were handling an extreme smallpox/measels case. She later saw on the discharge that the patient was "treated for COVID-19" for "statistical measures". So it is not just the media causing the frenzy, large pharma is as well.

Anyways, lots going on. We will all come out of this a bit stronger and the government will have backlash that they won't easily contain when the truth starts to eek out from people like Dan Crenshaw, and alternate news sources like Louder with Crowder, EPOCH Times, etc. start divulging things. The government of the world (WHO, Illuminatie, whomever you want to believe) tried to pull the wool over our eyes and got a chop to the throat as our arms flailed.
 

DesertLake

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Funny anecdote. Early last week I pestered a reporter to dig a little deeper into the Easter Covid spike speculation we got from the county health department. I sent him a graph of new confirmed cases per day, including a 3-day and 7-day simple moving average. I questioned how a one day spike with leading and trailing drops below average could be tied to anything, and requested he ask the county to explain. As in, I'd like to learn something new, not saying they just made it up. I'm not sure he understood what I was asking, but by the end of the week the Washoe Covid dashboard started showing the new confirmed cases per day with 7-day simple moving average, same as I sent the reporter. I sincerely hope they have better math than I do, but with that management shakeup who knows? I sent the reporter a graph with a 7 day moving average +/- one 7-day standard deviation. If that shows up on the dashboard, I'm going to cry.

Now a week after that exchange, new confirmed cases are seeing a bit of an uptick, could be something to the Easter speculation, could be expanded testing. It would be REALLY helpful if the county released number of test results returned per day alongside the number of new confirmed cases. How those numbers interact impact the "test positivity rate" referenced on page 7 of the recovery roadmap.

good news: confirmed cases doubling time keeps improving and is now 20 days for Washoe County, as well as combined Washoe+Quad Counties. Quad Counties still has so few cases they don't really impact that calc.
 
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Tony_Farson

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Questions about the accuracy of the data are swirling now too. Turns out several sources included deaths that happened during the crisis that had nothing to do with the virus... So all projections and estimates of deaths would be woefully inaccurate in that case.

Tests to 3-5 days to get results back to the providers. So that must be taken into account in regards to daily confirmed cases.
 

DesertLake

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Questions about the accuracy of the data are swirling now too. Turns out several sources included deaths that happened during the crisis that had nothing to do with the virus... So all projections and estimates of deaths would be woefully inaccurate in that case.

Tests to 3-5 days to get results back to the providers. So that must be taken into account in regards to daily confirmed cases.
Yeah, I don't look too closely at deaths, partly because the stats seem to be poor quality but also because they don't provide much predictive or actionable value - they are the most subjective and have the greatest lag time other than recovered cases. New confirmed cases is not high quality data, but it doesn't have as many dependencies as active cases and has the shortest lag time of the available stats.

The roadmap document did a poor job of explaining the usefulness of Test Positivity Rate, but it actually makes sense if you are looking for stats to base decisions on, and you acknowledge the only available data will be poor quality. If your testing capacity is extremely high, then Test Positivity Rate resembles the actual fraction of the population that is infectious right now, and if your testing capacity is low you are rationing tests for likely cases, giving you a very aggressive value that biases toward action until capacity improves. Most of the time you are somewhere between the two.
 
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