Change the spark plugs this is common on a Toyotas with a missfire.
Thanks for the suggestion - it does seem a common problem and I only wish it were mine.
Easily missed in my original post, but I have new spark plugs in already (no code before and no code until ~2k after plugs changed). Full details of car history
here scroll down to post #8 for what I've done (add front axles, timing belt and water pump to the list).
I bought the car used from a friend (he was second owner). Only 75k miles as his daughter rarely drove it. In fact, I've read a few threads that suggested continual short-distance trips may actually harm the cat over time. The theory was that if you only drive 5-10 miles at a time and the engine cools completely between trips then the engine never gets to full operating temps and the cat also never gets to full operating temps. I really don't see how this would cause the cat to fail early (and I'm not sure 12 years and 75k miles is early either).
I did test the front and rear O2 sensors and they seem to be working correctly (front is very active, rear is almost inactive). My dealer also confirmed that the sensors were working correctly based on the data print-out I showed him (but of course warned that the data can change quickly under different conditions). I did drive the car to get to standard operating temp and then tested with the car parked and engine rpm at 3000. Engine and coolant temp sensors also tested correctly. The dealer did mention that a rich fuel mix could also cause the PO420 code, but didn't have time to elaborate on why or how or what needed to be done to fix this. Obviously, at the time of my testing the fuel mix was normal. In the end, the dealer said they normally see the PO420 when the cat is gone and warned that it was a pricey part.
I'm waiting to hear, but I'll certainly be calling CDan (I need to order other stuff anyway). If it is too high, I guess I could go aftermarket, but I do wonder how long a cheap cat would last.
FWIW, I did tap on the cat with a rubber mallet a few times and didn't hear anything rattling around. Other than that, I really don't know what a 12 y/o camry cat is supposed to sound like.
My plan at the moment is to just let my daughter take it back to school in Madison, WI and if the CEL reappears then I'll address it again when she comes home next (Thanksgiving?).
Thanks all for the advice.