Bald Mtn Sat Jan 24th
- Thread starter Dusty
- Start date
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Do you mean Sun the 24th? or Sat the 23? We wanted to go up to play in the snow with our daughter but on a Sun.
- Thread starter
- #5
and realy hard. just keep the snatch straps out. AND BRING A SHOVEL. this year I have the winch
I mean sat the 23
last winter I was denied the summit on 3 seperate occasions-in fact I never saw the summit last winter even once-and only got about 2/3 the way. on 2 of the 3 attempts our partys tracks broke the snow and the tracks stopped where we turned around. on one attempt everyone (including myself) kept getting stuck and progress was just too slow. we were snatching like mad
make sure you have good and secure recovery points. and let your tires down to almost flat
here was last years attempt #1 after a lot of snow. i broke this trail myself
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdbvQpu_09o
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It's highly likely you won't make it even to the gate of bald mountain. Over the next 16 days, the mountains are expecting up to 10 feet of snow. Some computer models are predicting 5 inches of rain in Fresno.
WxGroup;
Past 24hr CA most Active Wx Review; storm system moved through CA pretty much as forecast and has now exited. Tallied up some descent precip totals listed below. A fundamental and profound pattern change to the atmosphere over the PAC basin and West Coast occurred with the passage of yesterday/today’s storm system and the storm door is now open for business at what appears to be full throttle. Once again the GFS tonight has out done itself by nearly repeating Monday’s 12Z run which stunned forecasters. The repeat performance is significant because it adds credibility and confidence to a serious forecast.
Past 24hr CA Temps ranged from the morning low of 34°f in Big Bear Lake and 33°f in Alturas, Blue Canyon and South Lake Tahoe to the afternoon high of 70°f in Death Valley and 74°f in beautiful Palm Springs!
Past 48hr CA Precip Storm Total highlights include; (Alpine Co) Forestdale Cr 2.10, Ebbetts Pass 1.80, (Butte Co) Magalia 4.81, Carpenter Ridge 3.94, Stirling City 4.04, Oroville 1.55, Chico 1.41, (Calaveras Co) Black Springs 1.27, Stanislaus 1.32, Esperanza 1.70, (Del Norte Co) Ship Mt 3.52, Crazy Pk 4.19, Elk Valley 3.96, Gasquet 3.28, Crescent City 1.34, (El Dorado Co) Echo Pk 1.50, Forni 1.29, Bald Mt 2.04, Pac House 1.52, (Fresno Co) Kaiser 1.52, Tamarack 0.96, Wishon 1.13, Dinkey 1.50, Shaver 1.69, Mt Rest 1.35, (Humboldt Co) Cooskie Mt 3.34, Westside 2.77, Yurok 3.43, Honeydew 4.36, South Fork Eel River 2.28, Eureka 1.62, (Kern Co) Wofford Heights 0.99, Isabella 0.90, (Lake Co) Whispering Pines 3.16, Soda Crk 2.65, (Madera Co) Chilkoot 1.60, Poison Ridge 1.12, Goat Mt 1.28, Bass Lake 1.44, North Fork 1.29, (Marin Co) Middle Pk 2.03, (Mariposa Co) Tenaya Lake 1.80, Wawona 1.43, (Mendocino Co) Rodeo Valley 2.15, Yorkville 2.04, South Fork Eel 2.60, Russian River 2.16, (Mono Co) Leavitt Lake 2.50, Mammoth Mt 1.84, Sonora Pass 1.60, (Monterey Co) Highlands 2.26, Big Sur 1.96, (Nevada Co) Central Sierra Snow 2.41, CSS Lab 2.80, Donner Lake 1.87, Bowman Lake 2.47, Deer Crk 2.61, Nevada City 1.50, Secret Town 1.72, Grass Valley 1.70, (Placer Co) Squaw Valley 1.50, Sugar Bowl 2.02, Huysink 2.68, Blue Cyn 1.96, Seedorchard 2.19, (Plumas Co) Grizzly Ridge 1.90, Hamilton 2.10, Prattville 2.26, Greenville 2.42, Bucks Creek PH 3.01, (Santa Cruz Co) Felton 2.71, Scotts Valley 1.93, (Shasta Co) Stouts Mdw 3.24, Hirz 3.92, Clear Crk 5.36, Sugarloaf 4.13, McCloud Dam PH 4.97, Sims 5.95, Antlers 6.39 (top prize of the storm), (Siskiyou Co) Snowman’s Summit 3.13, Mt Shasta 3.56, Somes Bar 3.14, (Trinity Co) Highland Lakes 4.08, Mumbo Basin 3.36, Scorpion 3.09, Coffee Ridge 3.08, Mad River 3.52, Ruth 3.00, (Tulare Co) Case Mt 1.12, Wolverton 1.26, Johnsondale 1.27, ShadeQtr 1.06, Ash Mt 1.38, Lake Kaweah 0.94, Giant Forest 0.80, (Tuolumne Co) Gianelli 1.92, Pinecrest 1.72, Mt Elizabeth 1.65, Buck Mdw 1.26, Groveland 1.77.
Hydro Conditions
Northern Sierra 8-Station Index link;
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/current/PLOT_ESI.pdf
San Joaquin 5-Station Index link;
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/PLOT_FSI.2010.pdf
CA Regional Snow Water Content chart link;
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/PLOT_SWC.2010.pdf
Advisories/Watches/Warnings highlights include; ‘Special Wx Statements’ from ALL CA based NWS offices; SAC, HNX, Oxnard, San Diego, Monterey, Eureka… waving the red flag loud and clear (and early) about the upcoming wet wx period. Each special statement may be worded slightly different by each office but the bottom line message is the same. Hazardous, Wet Wx is inbound!
List of Active NWS Alerts by CA County link;
Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories for California Issued by the National Weather Service
Sat Imagery
Infrared image and loop at 16KM shows 3 separate storm systems within the EPAC; 1) south of the Aleutians, 2) approaching the Olympic region, and 3) north of Hawaii. A full fledged “Pineapple Connection” originating from the ITCZ near the Dateline, crosses Hawaii and entrains NE into the Olympic storm is observed. The Olympic system has a large baroclinic leaf structure while the storm near Hawaii is developing one. The Aleutian system is maturing out. It is interesting to note that the ITCZ at 5N is FINALLY coming to life from the erupting subtropical flare near the Dateline eastward to 140W this includes the ENSO 3.4 region where the +1.5° anomaly on the ONI has established the ‘moderate’ El Nino conditions.
(Side Topic for the media) Ok, media you have permission to mention the words El Nino…for a while anyways. If this upcoming pattern and stormy weather isn’t enhanced or influenced by the El Nino, then I don’t know what is. In my humble opinion, this pattern is classic/textbook El Nino. In the past I have been critical of those (in the media) who have blabbed inappropriately and blamed El Nino for everything in the weather department, which is ridiculous. With a through examination of charts and the related CPC analysis of the current ENSO event, I will not flame those of you who choose to discuss the topic of El Nino liberally during the next 16 day period as long as we properly inform the Joe Q Public that these incoming storms are NOT EL NINO, they are being “Enhanced or Influenced” by the El Nino conditions, please make the distinction. El Nino is not the boogieman so don’t talk about it like it’s a monster. Since 1984, the term El Nino has been abused, let’s please put it into proper perspective. Thank you.
Water Vapor image is impressive with the erupting subtropical moisture plume SW of Hawaii this is one of the first “localized” (inside 160W) eruptions this year. Meanwhile, check out the empty void of the ITCZ between 130W and 110W…odd during a moderate warm phase ENSO event.
Radar Imagery displays throughout CA are running in Clear Air Mode.
Computer Forecast Prognostic Charts (updated 4 times per day)
Day 1-16 forecast shows a very powerful upper 300mb jet at speeds over 200mph racing across the PAC basin. (A classic El Nino characteristic) The jet is impressively wide, as it is straight (zonal westerly flow) AND long…example; in 72hrs, valid Sat Jan 17 the upper 300mb jet at 150+kts stretches a full 80° longitude across the PAC basin from 140E (near Japan) to 140W (due west of CA). Late Sunday this high speed jet reaches the West Coast (CA) and is progged to bring periods of mod to occasionally heavy precip to the State, which may last thru the end of January. Timing arrival of individual impulses of energy (storms) is questionable, but according to tonight’s 0Z GFS they appear to arrive as follows; 1) 84hrs Jan 16 thru 108hrs Jan 17, 2) 120hrs Jan 18 thru 156hrs Jan 19, 3) 168hrs Jan 20 thru 228hrs Jan 22 (this storm appears as a big event), 4) 264hrs Jan 24 thru 384hrs Jan 29 (this storm appears to be as an enormous Event…4 days worth and is so large that I’m already discounting it). Sierra Nevada range is going to get buried under several major SNOW DUMPS with snow levels at or above 5-6K. 10-12+ feet of snow at Crest elevations are possible by the end of January. Hydro issues are also a possibility, depending upon how long each system lasts and the duration of time between each system. Hazards compound after each storm.
Fresno 16 day precip plot shows the following stunning totals for you to shake yer head at; Storm system #1 with up to 1 inch possible, Storm system #2 with up to 1.25 inch possible, Storm system #3 with up to 1.50 inch possible, Storm system #4 with up to 2.5 inch possible. I have taken the liberty to shave off and dampen the computer’s true output, as I’ve learned to tend to be conservative. The jaw-dropped true GFS numbers suggested tonight for FAT for the 16 day period are an astounding 11+ inches! THAT’S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN, especially the 5+ inch total progged from the #4 Storm system. NADA! With numbers that are this high, I have no problem with chopping them at least in half. So this would place an estimate for Fresno of around 4-5 inches? That is still too high for me to swallow. I’m just reporting what the computer says and attempting to make rational sense out of it. Anyway you look at it, in summary there is a lot of water coming. Water managers; get ready, City Managers; get ready, Media; get ready, next week is going to be a duzzy.
HPC 120hr 5-Day QPF (updated twice per day) model tonight has increased the precip totals from this morning’s model run. This morning the 12Z showed Blue Canyon with 4.4 and Lassen with 4.5 inch, with 2 inch totals for the Southern Sierra. By contrast tonight’s 0Z model shows the Feather region with 5.2 inch and the Kings, Kern, Kaweah basins with 4.7 inch…and the new addition…LA Basin with 2.5 inch! Interesting to note this chart shows the lack of ‘rainshadow’ for the SJV, with amts showing 2-2.5 inch range… coming from HPC guidance that’s a big Wowie for the SJV!
GFS 384hr 16-Day QPF model chart for USA
This chart is very similar but not as dramatic as Monday’s 12Z GFS run. Noting the purple oval highlight over the Southern Sierra region, suggesting 12 inches of precip and also noting the HUGE area of CA covered with 10 inches!
Topic suggestions, questions and comments always welcome.
Steve Johnson
email; sjassoc@yahoo.com
559-285-7316
Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass... It's about learning to dance in the rain.
About WxGroup; a free community-service provided at will by Steve Johnson, statements are his opinions only. Data listed in charts provided is subject to revision. Issuance of WxGroup is primarily intended for interested meteorologist and wxcasters to share forecasting thoughts on related issues pertaining to CA wx. Formerly the newsletter of the Association of Central California Weather Observers (ACCWO) formed in 1990. Permission granted to forward WxGroup or to use, duplicate or broadcast pictures attached. Glossary Link for explanation of meteorological terms, abbreviations and acronyms used within the text of WxGroup; http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html .. Always refer threatening or severe wx immediately to the NWS or law enforcement.
Past 24hr CA most Active Wx Review; storm system moved through CA pretty much as forecast and has now exited. Tallied up some descent precip totals listed below. A fundamental and profound pattern change to the atmosphere over the PAC basin and West Coast occurred with the passage of yesterday/today’s storm system and the storm door is now open for business at what appears to be full throttle. Once again the GFS tonight has out done itself by nearly repeating Monday’s 12Z run which stunned forecasters. The repeat performance is significant because it adds credibility and confidence to a serious forecast.
Past 24hr CA Temps ranged from the morning low of 34°f in Big Bear Lake and 33°f in Alturas, Blue Canyon and South Lake Tahoe to the afternoon high of 70°f in Death Valley and 74°f in beautiful Palm Springs!
Past 48hr CA Precip Storm Total highlights include; (Alpine Co) Forestdale Cr 2.10, Ebbetts Pass 1.80, (Butte Co) Magalia 4.81, Carpenter Ridge 3.94, Stirling City 4.04, Oroville 1.55, Chico 1.41, (Calaveras Co) Black Springs 1.27, Stanislaus 1.32, Esperanza 1.70, (Del Norte Co) Ship Mt 3.52, Crazy Pk 4.19, Elk Valley 3.96, Gasquet 3.28, Crescent City 1.34, (El Dorado Co) Echo Pk 1.50, Forni 1.29, Bald Mt 2.04, Pac House 1.52, (Fresno Co) Kaiser 1.52, Tamarack 0.96, Wishon 1.13, Dinkey 1.50, Shaver 1.69, Mt Rest 1.35, (Humboldt Co) Cooskie Mt 3.34, Westside 2.77, Yurok 3.43, Honeydew 4.36, South Fork Eel River 2.28, Eureka 1.62, (Kern Co) Wofford Heights 0.99, Isabella 0.90, (Lake Co) Whispering Pines 3.16, Soda Crk 2.65, (Madera Co) Chilkoot 1.60, Poison Ridge 1.12, Goat Mt 1.28, Bass Lake 1.44, North Fork 1.29, (Marin Co) Middle Pk 2.03, (Mariposa Co) Tenaya Lake 1.80, Wawona 1.43, (Mendocino Co) Rodeo Valley 2.15, Yorkville 2.04, South Fork Eel 2.60, Russian River 2.16, (Mono Co) Leavitt Lake 2.50, Mammoth Mt 1.84, Sonora Pass 1.60, (Monterey Co) Highlands 2.26, Big Sur 1.96, (Nevada Co) Central Sierra Snow 2.41, CSS Lab 2.80, Donner Lake 1.87, Bowman Lake 2.47, Deer Crk 2.61, Nevada City 1.50, Secret Town 1.72, Grass Valley 1.70, (Placer Co) Squaw Valley 1.50, Sugar Bowl 2.02, Huysink 2.68, Blue Cyn 1.96, Seedorchard 2.19, (Plumas Co) Grizzly Ridge 1.90, Hamilton 2.10, Prattville 2.26, Greenville 2.42, Bucks Creek PH 3.01, (Santa Cruz Co) Felton 2.71, Scotts Valley 1.93, (Shasta Co) Stouts Mdw 3.24, Hirz 3.92, Clear Crk 5.36, Sugarloaf 4.13, McCloud Dam PH 4.97, Sims 5.95, Antlers 6.39 (top prize of the storm), (Siskiyou Co) Snowman’s Summit 3.13, Mt Shasta 3.56, Somes Bar 3.14, (Trinity Co) Highland Lakes 4.08, Mumbo Basin 3.36, Scorpion 3.09, Coffee Ridge 3.08, Mad River 3.52, Ruth 3.00, (Tulare Co) Case Mt 1.12, Wolverton 1.26, Johnsondale 1.27, ShadeQtr 1.06, Ash Mt 1.38, Lake Kaweah 0.94, Giant Forest 0.80, (Tuolumne Co) Gianelli 1.92, Pinecrest 1.72, Mt Elizabeth 1.65, Buck Mdw 1.26, Groveland 1.77.
Hydro Conditions
Northern Sierra 8-Station Index link;
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/current/PLOT_ESI.pdf
San Joaquin 5-Station Index link;
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/PLOT_FSI.2010.pdf
CA Regional Snow Water Content chart link;
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/PLOT_SWC.2010.pdf
Advisories/Watches/Warnings highlights include; ‘Special Wx Statements’ from ALL CA based NWS offices; SAC, HNX, Oxnard, San Diego, Monterey, Eureka… waving the red flag loud and clear (and early) about the upcoming wet wx period. Each special statement may be worded slightly different by each office but the bottom line message is the same. Hazardous, Wet Wx is inbound!
List of Active NWS Alerts by CA County link;
Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories for California Issued by the National Weather Service
Sat Imagery
Infrared image and loop at 16KM shows 3 separate storm systems within the EPAC; 1) south of the Aleutians, 2) approaching the Olympic region, and 3) north of Hawaii. A full fledged “Pineapple Connection” originating from the ITCZ near the Dateline, crosses Hawaii and entrains NE into the Olympic storm is observed. The Olympic system has a large baroclinic leaf structure while the storm near Hawaii is developing one. The Aleutian system is maturing out. It is interesting to note that the ITCZ at 5N is FINALLY coming to life from the erupting subtropical flare near the Dateline eastward to 140W this includes the ENSO 3.4 region where the +1.5° anomaly on the ONI has established the ‘moderate’ El Nino conditions.
(Side Topic for the media) Ok, media you have permission to mention the words El Nino…for a while anyways. If this upcoming pattern and stormy weather isn’t enhanced or influenced by the El Nino, then I don’t know what is. In my humble opinion, this pattern is classic/textbook El Nino. In the past I have been critical of those (in the media) who have blabbed inappropriately and blamed El Nino for everything in the weather department, which is ridiculous. With a through examination of charts and the related CPC analysis of the current ENSO event, I will not flame those of you who choose to discuss the topic of El Nino liberally during the next 16 day period as long as we properly inform the Joe Q Public that these incoming storms are NOT EL NINO, they are being “Enhanced or Influenced” by the El Nino conditions, please make the distinction. El Nino is not the boogieman so don’t talk about it like it’s a monster. Since 1984, the term El Nino has been abused, let’s please put it into proper perspective. Thank you.
Water Vapor image is impressive with the erupting subtropical moisture plume SW of Hawaii this is one of the first “localized” (inside 160W) eruptions this year. Meanwhile, check out the empty void of the ITCZ between 130W and 110W…odd during a moderate warm phase ENSO event.
Radar Imagery displays throughout CA are running in Clear Air Mode.
Computer Forecast Prognostic Charts (updated 4 times per day)
Day 1-16 forecast shows a very powerful upper 300mb jet at speeds over 200mph racing across the PAC basin. (A classic El Nino characteristic) The jet is impressively wide, as it is straight (zonal westerly flow) AND long…example; in 72hrs, valid Sat Jan 17 the upper 300mb jet at 150+kts stretches a full 80° longitude across the PAC basin from 140E (near Japan) to 140W (due west of CA). Late Sunday this high speed jet reaches the West Coast (CA) and is progged to bring periods of mod to occasionally heavy precip to the State, which may last thru the end of January. Timing arrival of individual impulses of energy (storms) is questionable, but according to tonight’s 0Z GFS they appear to arrive as follows; 1) 84hrs Jan 16 thru 108hrs Jan 17, 2) 120hrs Jan 18 thru 156hrs Jan 19, 3) 168hrs Jan 20 thru 228hrs Jan 22 (this storm appears as a big event), 4) 264hrs Jan 24 thru 384hrs Jan 29 (this storm appears to be as an enormous Event…4 days worth and is so large that I’m already discounting it). Sierra Nevada range is going to get buried under several major SNOW DUMPS with snow levels at or above 5-6K. 10-12+ feet of snow at Crest elevations are possible by the end of January. Hydro issues are also a possibility, depending upon how long each system lasts and the duration of time between each system. Hazards compound after each storm.
Fresno 16 day precip plot shows the following stunning totals for you to shake yer head at; Storm system #1 with up to 1 inch possible, Storm system #2 with up to 1.25 inch possible, Storm system #3 with up to 1.50 inch possible, Storm system #4 with up to 2.5 inch possible. I have taken the liberty to shave off and dampen the computer’s true output, as I’ve learned to tend to be conservative. The jaw-dropped true GFS numbers suggested tonight for FAT for the 16 day period are an astounding 11+ inches! THAT’S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN, especially the 5+ inch total progged from the #4 Storm system. NADA! With numbers that are this high, I have no problem with chopping them at least in half. So this would place an estimate for Fresno of around 4-5 inches? That is still too high for me to swallow. I’m just reporting what the computer says and attempting to make rational sense out of it. Anyway you look at it, in summary there is a lot of water coming. Water managers; get ready, City Managers; get ready, Media; get ready, next week is going to be a duzzy.
HPC 120hr 5-Day QPF (updated twice per day) model tonight has increased the precip totals from this morning’s model run. This morning the 12Z showed Blue Canyon with 4.4 and Lassen with 4.5 inch, with 2 inch totals for the Southern Sierra. By contrast tonight’s 0Z model shows the Feather region with 5.2 inch and the Kings, Kern, Kaweah basins with 4.7 inch…and the new addition…LA Basin with 2.5 inch! Interesting to note this chart shows the lack of ‘rainshadow’ for the SJV, with amts showing 2-2.5 inch range… coming from HPC guidance that’s a big Wowie for the SJV!
GFS 384hr 16-Day QPF model chart for USA
This chart is very similar but not as dramatic as Monday’s 12Z GFS run. Noting the purple oval highlight over the Southern Sierra region, suggesting 12 inches of precip and also noting the HUGE area of CA covered with 10 inches!
Topic suggestions, questions and comments always welcome.
Steve Johnson
email; sjassoc@yahoo.com
559-285-7316
Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass... It's about learning to dance in the rain.
About WxGroup; a free community-service provided at will by Steve Johnson, statements are his opinions only. Data listed in charts provided is subject to revision. Issuance of WxGroup is primarily intended for interested meteorologist and wxcasters to share forecasting thoughts on related issues pertaining to CA wx. Formerly the newsletter of the Association of Central California Weather Observers (ACCWO) formed in 1990. Permission granted to forward WxGroup or to use, duplicate or broadcast pictures attached. Glossary Link for explanation of meteorological terms, abbreviations and acronyms used within the text of WxGroup; http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html .. Always refer threatening or severe wx immediately to the NWS or law enforcement.
- Thread starter
- #10
bring it on baby. im going
If it snows as much as they say it will, you won't make it to the cabin.
- Thread starter
- #15
i havn't seen the snow that bad yet although I have had to take the crawler off the trailer and drive the crawler up seperatly one time last year. if it gets real bad ill leave the tow rig and trailer at the bottom of the 4 lane to shaver and unload the lexus. then ill load the fam and gear in the lexus and take that to the cabin.
last year my tow rig got stuck bad at the cabin and i had to pull it out with the lexus
im watching the marlin forum closely as tehre are guys running bald this weekend. curious to see if any snow falling yet. earlier this week it was all rain with little snow supposedly
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think everyones over reacting yea it's sopose to snow, last week no or very little ag dustys and 2 miles up hill at our rental 2 ft , we did bald , and it was actually the easist snow covered trail I been on! There has been alot of people up, and who cares if we don't make it all. The way up? I'm sure with the exception of a few members we would still find a way to have fun
I don't think anybody is overreacting, just preparing for the worst. Also, you haven't seen bald at it's toughest if you think it is easy. With this storm coming in, if you aren't prepared, you might have to leave your vehicle up there.
Chad I've seen it that bad ( anyone remember the blazer a few years ago? ) so what you go you get stuck you geg pulled out till you can't go any further! You turn around head back