Covid-19 thread

RWBeringer4x4

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Numbers, statistics, and their interpretation are a tricky thing...I remember when I was first diagnosed with Crohn’s disease 12 years ago and told I’d need to be on an immunosuppressant “for life” I started reading up on side effects. Turns out TNA-alpha inhibitors like the one I’m on DOUBLE my chances of getting blood-born cancer (lymphoma). Sounds scary right? Until you unpack it and realize that a normal, healthy male has a 1 in 50,000 chance of acquiring lymphoma in their lifetime. Which means my odds are 1 in 25,000. I like those odds especially given that the drug allows me to live an almost normal, mostly symptom free life.

Covid is the same way - I’m sort of with @iptman in that, as we continue testing more and more people more quickly, we will certainly see an accelerated and increasing number of positive cases. What we AREN’T seeing is an increase in hospitalizations and deaths that correlate to the increase in positive cases. As such, the cases keep rising, but the mortality rate keeps dropping. The odds keep looking better and better despite more and more people catching and spreading the disease.

That said - I’m not going to run around maskless or take unnecessary risks (ie: go out to a bar or a concert) anytime soon. I’ll wear a mask because frankly, it’s literally barely an inconvenience and mildly uncomfortable, so if it is any benefit at all to me or those around me - why not? Wearing a mask while I’m in a store or somewhere crowded is a non-issue in my eyes :meh: We don’t wear masks at family gatherings but we do keep hugging to a minimum and try to keep our distance. That said, the kid is back at daycare now so if anyone will be the plague bearer to unleash it in my household, it’ll be her.

In short - risk mitigation as best I can, while trying to balance that with becoming a complete recluse and never leaving my house.
 

iptman

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I disagree on the pregnancy analogy. Testing for Covid-19 is testing to see if you have it, testing for pregnancy is testing if you are pregnant. Covid testing isn't to see if you will die and pregnancy testing isn't to see if you will ever be pregnant. They are yes or no tests.

[unfurl="true"]COVID-19 Hospitalizations[/URL]
Yeah, but there's no such thing as asymptomatic pregnancy. :grinpimp:. I'd argue that if death was not even a possible outcome of COVID we wouldn't be any more concerned with it than the seasonal flu. So to me, mortality is a primary factor. Obviously I wouldn't want to go through it if I can help it, I'm just playing the numbers. My wife hates to fly despite the statistics. She's also doing more to keep our family safe from COVID than anyone we know. Maybe there's something there. Who knows.
 
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RWBeringer4x4

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I'm lucky, in the sense that most of my hobbies are solitary and, with a toddler, I don't really have a social life anymore (except for you guys). I basically see family, a large hole in my back yard, and the underside of a Land Cruiser. Really the weakest link in my isolation is daycare. They are taking precautions but they've also sent me pictures of her at play, with caretakers in the background with their masks half off, and naturally there's not a toddler on earth that would tolerate a mask, so, realistically if it shows up in the daycare, it's going to show up here.

I'm overweight and immune compromised. If Covid gets me - just make sure one of you buys the FJ40 before my wife scraps it ;).
 

iptman

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Here's data for this flu season from the CDC. Crazy how many hospitalizations compared to the 242,000 so far for COVID over essentially the same number of months. It'll be interesting to see going forward how much lower the seasonal flu numbers will be with people way more vigilant about washing hands, sanitizer and not going to work/school if they have even a low grade fever. I'd bet these numbers will be cut in half next year.

COVID2.PNG
 
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The flu virus mutates at a much faster rate (~4x faster) than Covid-19 is expected to mutate based on available data. Every year labs develop the current year's flu vaccine months in advance based on data from previous years. They make an educated guess as to what strains of the flu will be most prevalent and try to construct and mass produce a vaccine to combat them . Some years its very good, some it may miss completely based on how the virus mutates vs the vaccine manufactured.



Based on historical modeling, the flu is pretty much dormant now until close to Halloween while Covid-19 is running rampant in the summer heat. Here is 2018-2019 and this year's chart for comparison:

2018-2019
FluView_StackedColumnChart_Image.png


2019-Present
FluView_StackedColumnChart_Image (4).png




@iptman ... On this we agree 100%. Flu numbers should be way down because of increased hygiene, distancing, stay at home orders and masks for sure. In addition to people being generally wary of visiting an ER out of fear of catching Covid while at the hospital and more local doctors offering video conference appointments.

When comparing the above charts, this year flu basically dropped off shortly after the shelter in place orders hit the majority of states (~1st week in April) and in 2018-2019 the same result wasn't seen until closer to the end of June.

If anyone else wants to nerd out on flu stats with me, check out the interactive slideshow ~2/3 down the page labeled Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) Activity Level Indicator Determined by Data Reported to ILINet (it looks like a green map of the US) ... press play.
 

caz

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Saw this today and thought it was interesting. Local hospital stats from Lancaster, Hershey Med and Reading.


 

brian

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FIL, who is in one of nursing homes in lebanon that has had a few cases off and on, has been diagnosed as positive for it this morning.
hes older...mid 70s-ish, not terrible health wise, but had a pretty bad stroke 20 couple years ago that disabled him by about roughly 40-45%.
he made it pretty easy. he never really developed any major issues, a few days of a cough was about it. they cleared him about a week ago.
 

Crusha

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Our school district just announced they will start as full cyber, no in person classes.

I was expecting this, but Lily was already cyber, so no real difference.

My oldest, Emma, is going to University of Vermont at the end of August. They require a 14 day quarantine before arrival.

We'll see how well this works. I sure as hell don't want to pay full price if they end up going cyber as well, but I doubt there would be any type of refund.
 

iptman

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Probably hard to convince an 18 year old of this but might be good to take a gap year off. In fact I've heard a few talking head financial advisers suggest this, especially if paying out of state tuition. Would definitely not enjoy paying full tuition rates for online classes.
 

PAToyota

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Considering the rising numbers both here in PA as well as in southern states, the idea that it would disappear over the summer certainly didn't come to pass. But it does seem like severe cases and deaths aren't rising relative to the number of cases. I'm beginning to wonder if that's due to other respiratory issues in the winter - colds, flu, etc - and that the higher number of deaths earlier in the year was the combination of COVID and other issues?
 

Crusha

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Probably hard to convince an 18 year old of this but might be good to take a gap year off
We offered that option, but she didn't want to do it. Fingers crossed...
 

brian

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I'm beginning to wonder if that's due to other respiratory issues in the winter - colds, flu, etc - and that the higher number of deaths earlier in the year was the combination of COVID and other issues?
it was certainly that, and that it was running rampant through assisted living facilities...for some reason.....a solid 75% of the deaths in Pa that have been attributed to it were in those facilities.
 
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My sister-in-law works as a nurse at a nursing home here in York. The staff was all tested 3 weeks ago and everyone was negative. One of the nurses went to the beach, came back and worked a couple of shifts and then felt ill. She got a test and was positive. Within a week I think ~12-16 staff tested positive and 2 patients have died. Sad.

In addition, my son's school district had a board meeting to vote on their hybrid plan for the fall (2 days in-person on campus and 3 days online, distancing, no masks while seated in class) or full remote learning. Somehow they ended up last minute going to 5 days in-person, on campus, no distancing and masks at all times. Then they wanted to drop the remote option and send the opt-out kids through a Cyber Academy.

It took some days, but now they will again offer the remote learning option, full Cyber Academy, 5 day in person and the hybrid option. Not sure how they expect to pull all that off, should be interesting. It seems MANY of the parents that wanted 5 day in-person instruction also do not want masks of any kind. We have chosen the remote option for the fall semester and will revisit options again closer to the spring semester.

I am concerned that my wife, a 3rd - 5th grade special education teacher will be doing 4 days in-person instruction. Plus, her district is allowing her students to come to school all 4 days if the parents chose to send their kids. Her room this year has one door and no windows (old cpu lab room), less than ideal.
 

caz

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We are having an interesting experience that will probably be common-place once school starts.

Our kids were at camp all week. I picked them up yesterday and our youngest had a fever and runny nose - he didn't tell anyone at the camp he wasn't feeling good (he's only 7). Now the middle one has a runny nose today too.

Probably nothing, but do I go to work Monday? Because I can work from home, the answer is probably a NO. I don't want to be the guy that infected my whole workplace and/or kills the owner who recently had a heart transplant.

I am realizing that any little sniffle or cough is going to be a big deal and will keep a lot of people home from work and school this fall when classes start back! It's going to be a complete mess!
 
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