I finally found time to pull the cowl off, and it seems clear that the only way water is getting into the cabin in that area is through the top of that gaping hole into the hvac.
I definitely see areas above that opening where the foam is compressed, and can see the gap you all are talking about. The compressed foam is visible to the naked eye, but is hard to photograph.
I'm going to give the adhesive foam a try, and expect that I'll probably need a cowl eventually. Maybe next time mrT has a big sale.
Like others, I don't get why there isn't some sort of cover over that opening. Like maybe a chimney cap kind of arrangement where air can get around the sides...
View attachment 3002221View attachment 3002223View attachment 3002225