Cybertruck or 200 Series Land Cruiser? (3 Viewers)

[Heckraiser]

Toyota has made it known publicly that they aren't sure EVs are the answer and is why they are researching alternate technologies pretty hard.

Toyota knows what it does well and as a company they tend not to wade into new waters until they're fully prepared. They have deepest hybrid experience of any manufacturer by a huge margin, and that will continue to be a very strong segment of the market for probably at least a couple decades. Their plain-old ICE cars are also becoming quite efficient with no compromises. So it makes good business sense to play to their strength and let others work out what a successful business model looks like in the EV world. EV's are no doubt going to be a big part of the future of the automotive industry, but I'll agree with the others that have posted here that 100% adoption is just not realistic.

 

[desmocruiser]

I’m a car addict in remission. Now I keep my cars for at least 10 years, I’ve had my MB e320 for 20 years now. Basically my goal is to drive then until they are close to worthless. So for me I don’t factor in resale, didn’t factor it in when I bought my LX, or my previous 80 and 60.

And buying a car (unless you absolutely need one, like current car gets totaled) is never a smart financial decision.

200’s are not immune to depreciation. I could have sold my ‘13 LX 2 years ago for $70k, (my local dealer sold a 2013 with 8k less miles then mine for $74k in 2021) today mine is worth ~$30k. My model 3 LR was $43k new in 2018. Today I could sell it for ~$30k.

Very good points, prior to the end of the line 200 series depreciation was significantly untoyota like when compared to Tacoma/4Runner, I had to wait until my Bride was out of the trade every 3 year’s pattern before we bought out first new one 10 years ago.

To the EV point resale value should be considered especially if Elon continues the price game to manipulate days supply, furthermore the repairs both mechanical and body are starting to impact ownership satisfaction and insurance rates.

 

[stonepa]

I am pretty certain 90% EV will never happen in the US, our country is too large and spread out from a land perspective, our public will not adapt, and the gas lobby is far too powerful, for just a few reasons.

 

[stonepa]

If all states were working on that timeline, perhaps. But only 3 states have this goal. There likely won't be infrastructure to make this work in 10 years. The state governors have basically admitted this, but still wanted to set a lofty goalpost. The WA governor even upped it to have all newly registered cars by 2030 and beyond be electric (which will definitely get punted as it isn't just new cars, it is all cars registered...).

Time will tell.

They don’t need mandates in reality given the current adoption curve in the US. The mandates are out of date thinking. My guess is the EVs and hybrids will take over more quickly on their own.

 

[desmocruiser]

View attachment 3545377

Ha!

Well if you were talking about those flying cars that were promised to me as a kid you might be right on with that comparison!!

However, we are talking about a car essentially of the same design premise, driving on the same roads at the same speed with the same traffic challenges, it’s just they are powered by an electric motor charged by electricity generated mostly by coal fire plants instead of directly pumping in fossil fuels which continue to be responsibly priced and very accessible.

My point is EV’s won’t work for 90% of Americans physically, fiscally, or psychologically, there are just too many other options!!

All being said, I am glad they are a good option for ~20% of the current US population.

Back to the CT, I give Tesla credit for outside the box design, tech seems about the same as the top of the line cars and Elon is due tremendous credit for their manufacturing processes and marketing machine which is driven by social media!!

 

[desmocruiser]

They don’t need mandates in reality given the current adoption curve in the US. The mandates are out of date thinking. My guess is the EVs and hybrids will take over more quickly on their own.

Exactly, let EV’s proliferate at their normal rate, between the government mandates and all the over selling to Wall Street which has the domestic manufacturers in a terrible spot, it left alot of American folks with a bad taste, let’s just hope EV’s don’t become the next Diesel engine debacle like the 1980’s, I still credit that scenario to keeping all of the great Land Cruiser Diesel’s from ever reaching our shores!!!

 

[desmocruiser]

They don’t need mandates in reality given the current adoption curve in the US. The mandates are out of date thinking. My guess is the EVs and hybrids will take over more quickly on their own.

Oh and Hybrids are taking over, it will start with the Toyota lineup and the rest will likely follow!!!

 

[Heckraiser]

My point is EV’s won’t work for 90% of Americans physically, fiscally, or psychologically, there are just too many other options!!

EV's will never work for everyone (not by a long shot) but your 90% number is probably off In Q3 2023, just about 8% of all car sales in the US were battery EV. I think we're going to get a bit more than 2% adoption rate over the coming years.

EV's, however, will not be a good choice (in the near future at the very least) for:
1) apartment dwellers who can't charge at home
2) rural dwellers with very long distances between destinations
3) One-car families who leave their neck of the woods with any regularity
4) People who need to tow or haul often for any distance over ~100 miles

But even if you eliminate all those categories, and all the people who will resist adoption for political, ideological, preference or "vroom vroom" noises, you're still looking at a pretty sizeable chunk of the population. I'd bet we'll get something closer to 20% adoption within a decade or so. Purely speculation on my part Studies do show that new EV models are entering the market faster than people are willing to switch over, so the auto industry is going to have some growing pains in this area.

People make the cost argument a lot, but I bought my brand new Tesla in 2019 cheaper than an optioned-up Civic. Anybody with credit can get one if they want to.

 

[stonepa]

EV's will never work for everyone (not by a long shot) but your 90% number is probably off In Q3 2023, just about 8% of all car sales in the US were battery EV. I think we're going to get a bit more than 2% adoption rate over the coming years.

While EVs are only 1.2% of current registrations in the US as of 2022, EV sales were 5.9% of all new vehicles sold to private US vehicle buyers in 2022. They were 8.1% in 2023. So the trend and actual sales numbers would say otherwise.

 

[TeCKis300]

EV's will never work for everyone (not by a long shot) but your 90% number is probably off In Q3 2023, just about 8% of all car sales in the US were battery EV. I think we're going to get a bit more than 2% adoption rate over the coming years.

EV's, however, will not be a good choice (in the near future at the very least) for:
1) apartment dwellers who can't charge at home
2) rural dwellers with very long distances between destinations
3) One-car families who leave their neck of the woods with any regularity
4) People who need to tow or haul often for any distance over ~100 miles

But even if you eliminate all those categories, and all the people who will resist adoption for political, ideological, preference or "vroom vroom" noises, you're still looking at a pretty sizeable chunk of the population. I'd bet we'll get something closer to 20% adoption within a decade or so. Purely speculation on my part Studies do show that new EV models are entering the market faster than people are willing to switch over, so the auto industry is going to have some growing pains in this area.

People make the cost argument a lot, but I bought my brand new Tesla in 2019 cheaper than an optioned-up Civic. Anybody with credit can get one if they want to.

All 4 are good points. Here's some interesting anecdotal dynamics at play:
1) I have at least 2 friends that are apartment based and choose to go EVs as their only car. Funny enough I was the hesitant one for them. Yet they are seeing some proliferation of charging availability in the city. Buddy who is a renter and architect said the Department of Energy and California Building Standards Commission (CBSC) has guidelines and mandates for new construction to have some percentage of pre-wiring and parking stalls to have chargers. Working great him so far and he goes to Vegas, Norcal, and other trips all the time. Tesla's Autopilot was a big factor in helping them navigate and manage the stress of driving in traffic in LA.
2) Rural dwellers are actually finding benefits to EVs as they don't have much gas infrastructure, yet can leave home with a full "tank" everyday.
3) Several families I know that are multi-car, are now multi-EV owners only. No more ICE anywhere. That may be me, if the 200-series goes away one day.
4) The jury is definitely still out.

 

[40Man]

They don’t need mandates in reality given the current adoption curve in the US. The mandates are out of date thinking. My guess is the EVs and hybrids will take over more quickly on their own.

Yeah, I'm not talking about hybrids, they are a different animal. I've seen a lot of the adoption trends, and I think many of them are optimistic, but even relying on them even CA (where most electric adopters are) will only be in the 90-95% range by 2035. The Nation will be around 65% per some of the more optimistic trends.

The problem is, most households that are buying electric are not buying all electric (still keep at least one fossil fuel vehicle for reasons discussed in this thread). Without newer technology for larger range, faster charging, and most importantly, more infrastructure, the growth trend will taper off somewhat. If tax credits aren't renewed after 2032, expect a decrease as well. Only 60ish% of the population lives in a home with a garage or carport. 35-40% live in apartments or areas with community parking, where EV charging does not readily exist currently for many. So there will need to be a lot of infrastructure to get to 100%. And as more adopt, the needed infrastructure needed will go up exponentially.

On the flip side, once battery tech or large storage capacitors become a reality, we'll see a hockey stick increase in sales/adoption from many on the fence, so I don't think we'll see continued rising sales, but more a variable rate.

I've been pretty involved in looking at some of this as I sit on the board of directors of a private precious metals mining company (locations in the U.S. and abroad). There are lots of discussions on where we should be developing and acquiring and what we should be mining and what is in demand/most profitable. Regulations and locations are often the biggest barrier, but there are concerns with future long-term availability for certain metals, so we keep an eye on purchasing trends as it can have a huge impact on prices and availability. So we are trying to anticipate and stay above the curve.

 

[desmocruiser]

EV's will never work for everyone (not by a long shot) but your 90% number is probably off In Q3 2023, just about 8% of all car sales in the US were battery EV. I think we're going to get a bit more than 2% adoption rate over the coming years.

EV's, however, will not be a good choice (in the near future at the very least) for:
1) apartment dwellers who can't charge at home
2) rural dwellers with very long distances between destinations
3) One-car families who leave their neck of the woods with any regularity
4) People who need to tow or haul often for any distance over ~100 miles

But even if you eliminate all those categories, and all the people who will resist adoption for political, ideological, preference or "vroom vroom" noises, you're still looking at a pretty sizeable chunk of the population. I'd bet we'll get something closer to 20% adoption within a decade or so. Purely speculation on my part Studies do show that new EV models are entering the market faster than people are willing to switch over, so the auto industry is going to have some growing pains in this area.

People make the cost argument a lot, but I bought my brand new Tesla in 2019 cheaper than an optioned-up Civic. Anybody with credit can get one if they want to.

We will never reach 90% EV, I used that number as a response to another post and I agree 20% is probably a more reasonable goal.

The “push” for EV’s in the past few years was never from the demand side and I think we jumped to 8% too quickly and the past year has created negative publicity, I don’t think we will reach 8% in 2024 as the supply of ICE vehicles continues to catch up. We will see what the future holds!

Which new Tesla could be purchased for less than $25k in 2019, a model in that price range would certainly pencil better for the right person, especially as a second car to compliment their ICE SUV!

 

[bloc]

Over the course of history a lot of people have been proven wrong using the words "always" and "never."

To the grid issues I say: where there's a dollar, there's a way.

 

[stonepa]

Over the course of history a lot of people have been proven wrong using the words "always" and "never."

To the grid issues I say: where there's a dollar, there's a way.

And there are plenty of both ways and dollars.

 

[40Man]

Over the course of history a lot of people have been proven wrong using the words "always" and "never."

To the grid issues I say: where there's a dollar, there's a way.

True, Netflix solicited Blockbuster to buy them for $50MM and the CEO of Blockbuster told them to pound sand as their model does not make sense.

Electric cars may very well be the new Netflix type company to disrupt an industry, but they are currently in the DVD by mail stage, and they have a long way to go to be the next "streaming giant".

And there was not a giant DVD lobby that fought tooth and nail to keep streaming at bay...

 

[greynolds]

Over the course of history a lot of people have been proven wrong using the words "always" and "never."

Yeah, "never in my lifetime" might be true, but "never" is a REALLY long time. I think the real question is whether the shift will be to electric more or less as we know it or some other option we haven't seen yet, but I think it's pretty clear that ICE will (slowly) go away and gas will gradually get harder to find. I just don't think electric is ready for the masses yet.

To the grid issues I say: where there's a dollar, there's a way.

Yeah, it's another thing where it's mostly just a question of how long will it take and how much fossil vs green energy will be used to get there.

 

[Heckraiser]

Which new Tesla could be purchased for less than $25k in 2019, a model in that price range would certainly pencil better for the right person, especially as a second car to compliment their ICE SUV!

2019 Model 3 SR+ $32k out the door (about the same as a Civic Sport Touring with options). $24k after tax incentives (pretty close to a base model Civic). Yes, I know the tax incentives don't really count as a fair comparison. But even without them, it was very affordable as a new "semi-luxury sedan" goes, as I said, on par with an optioned-up civic. You can't quite get a new one for that price anymore. 100k miles with zero maintenance except tires, no brake pads (regen), no gas, no oil changes, around $40/m operational costs for juice at home. As an independent contractor, I can also write off my considerable business mileage at ~$0.67/mile making the real cost to operate less than zero in my particular circumstance

 

[coleAK]

I think you and everyone else knows that your situation is mostly unique and doesn't apply to many here. To make a statement that "charging takes so much less time than getting gas" is being disingenuous.

It isn’t unique. Most people that own EVs charge at home. National data shows that >80% of EV owners charge almost entirely at home. I don’t know anyone that owns an EV that doesn’t charge at home.

If you woke up every day with a full tank of gas how often would you have to stop at a gas station?

 

[desmocruiser]

2019 Model 3 SR+ $32k out the door (about the same as a Civic Sport Touring with options). $24k after tax incentives (pretty close to a base model Civic). Yes, I know the tax incentives don't really count as a fair comparison. But even without them, it was very affordable as a new "semi-luxury sedan" goes, as I said, on par with an optioned-up civic. You can't quite get a new one for that price anymore. 100k miles with zero maintenance except tires, no brake pads (regen), no gas, no oil changes, around $40/m operational costs for juice at home. As an independent contractor, I can also write off my considerable business mileage at ~$0.67/mile making the real cost to operate less than zero in my particular circumstance

You certainly have the proper circumstances and the discipline to maximize the advantage, sadly the lack of discipline and planning dooms the EV for many other Americans and will factor into their future.

That is pricey for a Civic, I paid low $30k’s for the first Type R in 2017. But I think that is the current price threshold to make an EV work as a significant financial advantage.

I find it interesting that only on the 200/250/300 forums do you really see any cross shopping or any number of replaced with or shared garages with an EV.

Question for an EV and LC owner:

Weekend is here, going to run a few errands, stop at a brewery for lunch, toss the MTB on the rack for a ride etc. essentially the stuff we enjoy doing!

What vehicle do you take the Cruiser or the Tesla?

 

[greynolds]

around $40/m operational costs for juice at home.

What unit Is "m"? If that's per month, that's pretty cheap especially if you're logging lots of miles, though that cost is obviously going to vary depending on where one lives because electric rates, much like gas, are regional in nature. Even with my new car (I traded the LC in for a 2024 Highlander earlier this month), I'll probably be filling up (around 15 gallons) roughly 1.5 times per month with gas prices hovering around $3 per gallon around here lately.

I would honestly really like to go electric, but I just feel like it's isn't quite there yet for me. There's an excellent chance that my next vehicle will either by a hybrid or completely electric. I don't see myself buying a Tesla (definitely NOT the CT). I like the overall Rivian product, but want them to be better established before handing money over.