2017 value vs. 2015; value of changes with MY16

[mooneywa]

I have been toying with moving from my '15 up to a '17, going from about 64k miles down to the upper teens or lower 20s and consolidating a commuter/airport car as well. I have been very surprised at the values of the '17s. Did I miss something in the model years (outside of the relatively minor updates aesthetically and the addition of blind spot) that would cause these to hang out in the very high $60k and in some case $70k range?

I've also found that trade value on my '15 is WAY lower than even the low end of a fair condition traded-in car via KBB, NADA, and Edmunds. *I know dealers always hit low on trades, CarMax often does better, etc etc... but Texas vehicle tax only credits a trade if it's to the same dealer.*

Between my '15 with 64k and a '17 with 8k, there was a $30k+ delta between the two. That seemed $7-8k higher than some numbers I had researched and I'm just wondering if this is the new normal or truly the changes in MY16 have become that valuable/important?

 

[mcgaskins]

There are more updates than meets the eye, and the 16+ feels MUCH more modern than all prior iterations. I have an 08 and a 16 and sold my 14 last year. All good, but the 16+ is the pinnacle of the platform. IMO it’s worth a solid premium over the 15, but how much is up to you. If your 15 only has 64k miles and it’s going to cost you over $30k to upgrade, that seems way too steep to me. I’d look to private party sell because you’ll get a lot more than the tax savings at what you’ve quoted.

 

[ryanCA]

There are more updates than meets the eye, and the 16+ feels MUCH more modern than all prior iterations. I have an 08 and a 16 and sold my 14 last year. All good, but the 16+ is the pinnacle of the platform. IMO it’s worth a solid premium over the 15, but how much is up to you. If your 15 only has 64k miles and it’s going to cost you over $30k to upgrade, that seems way too steep to me. I’d look to private party sell because you’ll get a lot more than the tax savings at what you’ve quoted.

Well said.

Yup, the 16+ is the best of the 200 series...

 

[M1911]

Personally, I would wait another year or two. Toyota is (finally!) putting Apple CarPlay into their vehicles and that is something I would really like. In fact, there are reports that Toyota has reached an agreement with Google to add Android Auto as well.

If new tech or a 300 series comes in a year or two and it looks good to you, jump on it. If it comes and doesn't look good to you, get a used '17 or '18. If it doesn't come in a year or two, then get a used '17 or '18, or new '19...

 

[mooneywa]

@mcgaskins - I was a little skeptical of your claim, but I'll tell you, the '17 drives very differently than the '15, in a positive way.

But most importantly, the delta between the two vehicles dropped nearly $10k at another place. I think a number of the dealers I contacted were pretty self-impressed they had a 200 on the lot (warning sign #1 should have been their repeated reference to "the Land Rover") and this current dealer was more interested in just moving the cars.

@M1911 - valid shots. I'd suspect I'll be priced out of a 300, and this is a known quantity.

 

[mcgaskins]

@mcgaskins - I was a little skeptical of your claim, but I'll tell you, the '17 drives very differently than the '15, in a positive way.

My opinion is just that - an opinion. But I've had 4 Land Cruisers (one 100, three 200s) in the last 6 years and about 50 cars/motorcycles (most were 4x4) in the last 20 years so I have a relatively deep bench of experience. The 16+ Land Cruiser is one of the best vehicles ever made IMO when you consider the combination of luxury, capability, durability, reliability, technology, depreciation, performance, aesthetic quality, etc. Sure there are other vehicles out there that may offer more in any one of those categories, but there is nothing on the road that combines everything into one package as well as the 200, with the 16+ being the most evolved of platform. The only material complaint I had about the 16+ LC (not the LX, just the LC) was the throttle mapping which has been fixed with a Pedal Commander - see thread about it here: Pedal Commander or other throttle controller thoughts?

 

[04UZJ100]

16+ have had some questionable transmission replacements.

The 8 speed is an unproven critical piece of the drivetrain at this point. It DID NOT receive the same testing the 6 speed did.

JMO

 

[mcgaskins]

The 8 speed is an unproven critical piece of the drivetrain at this point. It DID NOT receive the same testing the 6 speed did.

JMO

Care to cite your source other than perusing this forum? Also what personal experience do you have with both transmissions?

 

[04UZJ100]

Care to cite your source other than perusing this forum? Also what personal experience do you have with both transmissions?

What is wrong with this forum where there are multiple reported replacements? A user has had TWO replacements.

Don’t have personal experience other then a test drive where I hated all the shifting and hunting. I know for a fact Toyota did not ship an 8 speed model around the world for a 100,000km durability test like they did the 6 speed.

It’s a numbers game that Toyota stooped to in attempt to match the 8 and 10 speeds of it’s competitors. The fuel effeciency improvement is negligible at best.

Lastly, the 16+ LX’s are gaudy looking.

 

[mcgaskins]

Don’t have personal experience other then a test drive where I hated all the shifting and hunting. I know for a fact Toyota did not ship an 8 speed model around the world for a 100,000km durability test like they did the 6 speed.

How do you know Toyota did not test the 8 speed around the world? This forum is important resource for people to get factual information, not hyberbole. If you know for a fact that Toyota did not test it around the world, then please cite your source. Many of the members here including myself met with real 200 engineers from Toyota, and we discussed the platform at length. They confirmed the 200 in its current form is the strongest and most durable 4x4 they have made, and they showed up in a brand new stock 2017 to take on the trails with us. If you didn't like the 16+ that's fine, but it's important for people to not spread misinformation on this relatively objective forum. Many here have a 16+ and love it, and I think off road is truly where they shine compared with the 6 speed.

Discussion forums on the internet tend to magnify issues that only affect a small percentage of the population. If you google'd any car and "transmission failure" or "oil leak", etc., you will find results on some forum that makes it appear it's a widespread issue, but in fact it's statistically a small issue with a lot of visibility due to discussion boards on the internet. While the 200 is sold in low volume in the US, Toyota sells the 5.7 V8 / 8 speed automatic in the Middle East, and I think it's fair to say they drive their trucks harder than most do in the US. I haven't seen any of our Middle East members mention any issues with their 8 speed transmissions.

 

[Redbull]

If you had a 2008-2011 then I'd say it might be worth it. Ive got almost 80k miles on my 2015 and for $30k or more I'd expect a 300 series not a refreshed one.

 

[mooneywa]

Party people - this has become a notably testy chat... and for goodness sakes, I'm the one who should be testy because I'm having to go through the shenanigans of buying a car.

Yes, I too read forum posts that referenced early issues with the MY16 8 speed transmission, at the time it did make me glad I was in a '15. So far I have ready far FAR fewer reports of transmission issues in the MY16+ than I have about coolant leaks, busted radiators, et al about the much praised and tested 5.7 in previous 200 iterations.

The 8 speed in the vehicle I'm considering shifted smoothly and accurately up and down the gears and provided no reason to question it's quality, although I did take especial note due to those posts from back then.

I've heard much more complaining about the latest 10 speed Ford/GM transmission than I have about the 8 speed.

@Redbull - agreed and why I gave the no thanks to the dealer that was trying to pull that.

 

[Docboy]

True, internet forums *tend* to make issues bigger than they are. A small outspoken minority can sound gargantuan, when the actual numbers are tiny.

Consumer Reports, as much as one hates them or likes them, seem like a good neutral source of auto reliability, though one can argue an inherent CR subscriber bias.

Anyone care to post a snapshot of the Consumer Reports reliability chart for the LC or LX the past few years?

 

[M1911]

@M1911 - valid shots. I'd suspect I'll be priced out of a 300, and this is a known quantity.

You will be more likely to afford a 300 series if you save your money and don’t jump from a ‘15 to a ‘17. Your ‘15 is hardly broken in. Buying a ‘17 means more depreciation.

But, your money, so spend it as you wish.

 

[Ali M]

How do you know Toyota did not test the 8 speed around the world? This forum is important resource for people to get factual information, not hyberbole. If you know for a fact that Toyota did not test it around the world, then please cite your source. Many of the members here including myself met with real 200 engineers from Toyota, and we discussed the platform at length. They confirmed the 200 in its current form is the strongest and most durable 4x4 they have made, and they showed up in a brand new stock 2017 to take on the trails with us. If you didn't like the 16+ that's fine, but it's important for people to not spread misinformation on this relatively objective forum. Many here have a 16+ and love it, and I think off road is truly where they shine compared with the 6 speed.

Discussion forums on the internet tend to magnify issues that only affect a small percentage of the population. If you google'd any car and "transmission failure" or "oil leak", etc., you will find results on some forum that makes it appear it's a widespread issue, but in fact it's statistically a small issue with a lot of visibility due to discussion boards on the internet. While the 200 is sold in low volume in the US, Toyota sells the 5.7 V8 / 8 speed automatic in the Middle East, and I think it's fair to say they drive their trucks harder than most do in the US. I haven't seen any of our Middle East members mention any issues with their 8 speed transmissions.

I agree. It's bold to claim that 8-speed didn't get tested enough by Toyota. However, I can assure you that the 8-speed despite the recent firmware update (TSB) fix, it still needs some love by Toyota R&D to prevent the common issue I personally experienced and others here as well. It is always hunting for gears (like it has a mind of its own) especially at slow speed on slopes up until you take control of it and manually down/up shift.

Also, the note about 8-speed v8 5.7 sold in middle east, that's not entirely accurate. The most popular LC model in ME is still powered with the 4.7 v8 LC including the 2016+ with 6-speed tranny. The V8's are not as popular as you think over there.

8-speed transmission issues thread for reference:
2016+ LC TSB for Rough Shifting Transmission is out

 

[mcgaskins]

I agree. It's bold to claim that 8-speed didn't get tested enough by Toyota. However, I can assure you that the 8-speed despite the recent firmware update (TSB) fix, it still needs some love by Toyota R&D to prevent the common issue I personally experienced and others here as well. It is always hunting for gears (like it has a mind of its own) especially at slow speed on slopes up until you take control of it and manually down/up shift.

Also, the note about 8-speed v8 5.7 sold in middle east, that's not entirely accurate. The most popular LC model in ME is still powered with the 4.7 v8 LC including the 2016+ with 6-speed tranny. The V8's are not as popular as you think over there.

8-speed transmission issues thread for reference:
2016+ LC TSB for Rough Shifting Transmission is out

I never said the 5.7 was the highest volume spec in the ME, so not sure where that assumption comes into play. The 5.7 with 8 speed is most definitely sold over there, and you can find it on the Toyota website there. Fact of the matter is, it is sold, and it is used and abused over there. We even have members on this board in the ME with the combo who jump it with regularity.

I had the TSB done within days of getting my 16 in March, and I’ve never experienced the hunting you mention. I use it at altitude, lifted with big tires, traffic, highway, trail, you name it, no issues or complaints. I had an issue with throttle mapping which has been resolved, but none with the tranny. And the first 3 gears in the 8 speed make trail work substantially easier and better than the 6 speed.

 

[abuck99]

I have been toying with moving from my '15 up to a '17, going from about 64k miles down to the upper teens or lower 20s and consolidating a commuter/airport car as well. I have been very surprised at the values of the '17s. Did I miss something in the model years (outside of the relatively minor updates aesthetically and the addition of blind spot) that would cause these to hang out in the very high $60k and in some case $70k range?

I've also found that trade value on my '15 is WAY lower than even the low end of a fair condition traded-in car via KBB, NADA, and Edmunds. *I know dealers always hit low on trades, CarMax often does better, etc etc... but Texas vehicle tax only credits a trade if it's to the same dealer.*

Between my '15 with 64k and a '17 with 8k, there was a $30k+ delta between the two. That seemed $7-8k higher than some numbers I had researched and I'm just wondering if this is the new normal or truly the changes in MY16 have become that valuable/important?

Would be helpful to know the actual numbers they quoted you, ask price on the 17 and trade in value of 2015.

 

[Str8Laced]

Anyone care to post a snapshot of the Consumer Reports reliability chart for the LC or LX the past few years?

Here you go - Consumer Reports LX570 Reliability

 

[SWUtah]

Party people - this has become a notably testy chat... and for goodness sakes, I'm the one who should be testy because I'm having to go through the shenanigans of buying a car.

Yes, I too read forum posts that referenced early issues with the MY16 8 speed transmission, at the time it did make me glad I was in a '15. So far I have ready far FAR fewer reports of transmission issues in the MY16+ than I have about coolant leaks, busted radiators, et al about the much praised and tested 5.7 in previous 200 iterations.

The 8 speed in the vehicle I'm considering shifted smoothly and accurately up and down the gears and provided no reason to question it's quality, although I did take especial note due to those posts from back then.

I've heard much more complaining about the latest 10 speed Ford/GM transmission than I have about the 8 speed.

@Redbull - agreed and why I gave the no thanks to the dealer that was trying to pull that.

Sounds like you made your mind up buy the 17 enjoy it. But we all know that a Land Cruiser or LX with less than 150,000 miles isn’t even broken in yet since they’re designed to go at least a half million miles so if you trade you trade for reasons of your own it’s definitely not a good financial decision but it’s your money. Come on guys the idea that a 2015 LC or LX is inferior in someway to a 2017 is total BS

 

[Docboy]

Sounds like you made your mind up buy the 17 enjoy it. But we all know that a Land Cruiser or LX with less than 150,000 miles isn’t even broken in yet since they’re designed to go at least a half million miles so if you trade you trade for reasons of your own it’s definitely not a good financial decision but it’s your money. Come on guys the idea that a 2015 LC or LX is inferior in someway to a 2017 is total BS

I agree. IMHO a 2017 LC is not worth paying an extra $30k+ on top of trading in a 2015 LC. Sure, the 2017 has improvements over a 2015, but not $30k worth. Plus with so little miles on the 2015, it's still pretty much new with 20-25+ years of life left.