Toyota vs Tesla autonomous vehicles strategy

[Reckless]

My major gripe with my LC is lack of autonomous driving capabilities. I read this article on Toyota's views on autonomous vehicle strategy and their focus on driver assisted vehicles aimed for teenagers and seniors:

Toyota Looks Pretty Smart Right Now On Autonomous Vehicles

TBH I never challenge Toyota engineering but I think they might be mistaken on this. I would love to hear other 200 owners thoughts. My next car purchase is being affected by my views of self driving vehicle adoption. I just had a friend's family members die in a car accident a few days ago and thought crossed my mind if we had computers helping it might have saved their lives. Does anyone not believe elon musk will have full self driving in 3 years? I've driven the older 2.0 system and thought he was nearly there 4-5 years ago. I read a book while it drove on a major highway in chicago in traffic by itself. The youtube videos of tesla driving in dense snow autonomously are very impressive better than what I can do.

 

[spressomon]

40-years to put together the remaining 20% needed to make self driving cars a reality, per the linked article, seems about right IMHO. And even then...

Sortakindarelatedranthyjack: I'm just wishing Apple could make a phone that lasts more than a couple years...but hey, what should I expect for a grand?! So given the seemingly endless list of data points involved in all things self driving cars...I'm thinking even 40-years isn't realistic.

 

[LBridges]

I'm nearly clueless on the timeline. I have read some about Toyota's effort for the tech at things like the now canceled Olympics (level 4 autonomy), and their joint effort with MIT on DriveSeg.

A factor I haven't seen a resolution for is liability. I don't see any manufacturer offering autonomy (level 4+ on any public road):

a) a law is passed giving them a liability waiver from injury/death and possibly property damage, and/or,

b) every vehicle is tied into some computer network so each vehicle knew what to do in the event of something unexpected happening, e.g., if the vehicle hit a rain submerged pothole and blew out the rack & pinion steering system.

My example in (b), albeit not in an autonomous vehicle, happened to me in a Toyota MR2 - believe me, that was a lot of fun (not).

 

[m4hk33]

40-years to put together the remaining 20% needed to make self driving cars a reality, per the linked article, seems about right IMHO. And even then...

Sortakindarelatedranthyjack: I'm just wishing Apple could make a phone that lasts more than a couple years...but hey, what should I expect for a grand?! So given the seemingly endless list of data points involved in all things self driving cars...I'm thinking even 40-years isn't realistic.

Apple and Samsung struggle to be able to develop a phone/operating system that one could expect to get more than a year or two of use out of. Its a little silly to expect any game changers in regards to automated driving in the foreseeable future. Hell, Bio metric security is still pretty wonkee at this point and that is far easier to figure out than automated driving.

 

[LCtwohundred]

He [Pratt] pointed out, for example, that although less than 1 percent of adult deaths in the US are from auto accidents, 35 percent of teenage deaths are.

This is a silly way to use statistics to make an argument. Of course this is true, as teenagers tend to not die of diseases like Alzheimers, which skew the numbers for adults. A more fair way is to say that 6% of all fatal car crashes as in the 16-19 year range (source). Granted this is way too high and we should aim for 0%.

I've done a few road trips in a Tesla with auto-pilot and it's incredibly comfortable, and it will help prevent crashes in emergency situations. But yes, you still have to pay attention, because sometimes it messes up.

I think this article misses the point: "full self driving" might take a long time, but "decent" self driving technology already comes standard on a $35k tesla, and the best a $85k LC gets you is adaptive cruise. I think it's reasonable to expect more.

 

[M1911]

Does anyone not believe elon musk will have full self driving in 3 years?

No, I don’t. I think the problem is way more complex than Silicon Valley folks claim.

I think what a Tesla has now is useful, but it is imperfect and the driver must pay attention and be ready to intervene very quickly. The problem is that people tend not to be very good at monitoring. IIRC, one of the fatal Tesla accidents where the car was driving at highway speeds and hit a stationary vehicle it was determined that the driver was playing a game on his phone.

I would like a semi-autonomous vehicle. Over the past four years I’ve done two road trips with over 10,000 miles combined. I’d love to have some help on those long interstate drives.

This type of driving system requires an electric power steering. The Land Cruiser 200 has hydraulic power assisted steering.

 

[bloc]

Want to know what the landcruiser is that teslas arent? Designed to be and have a long track record as the toughest, most reliable, most capable, mass produced vehicles on the planet. Tesla is doing a lot of things right, and from a traction standpoint an off-road developed electric drivetrain could be epic, but they don't have the experience MAKING CARS to do so in a way that ensures they have the lifespan of most toyotas, let alone a landcruiser. For the people that will rattle off that their drivetrains can do a million miles, I'm talking about little stuff like LCD screens, weather stripping, wiper arm paint, etc. Everything wrapped around the drivetrain.

Then apply toyota's engineering expectations to something as complex as a self-driving system.. and think about the s*** show that was the camry throttle programming....

Personally I see the landcruiser and autonomous driving on two different ends of a spectrum. Autonomy is technology showcase, cruiser is reliable transportation, and that usually doesn’t include much risk taking in terms of technology.

People buying a self-driving tesla instead of a landcruiser probably want a vehicle that has different strengths and are getting what they want.

 

[aznxfactor]

What about the California guy that died in a tesla because of autonomous driving while he was playing a game on his tablet.

Autonomous driving is cool but I think down it will allow people to appreciate more about actually driving on the road. It's like the v8s. The majority of people complain about v8s and the gas mpg. Later on when it's gone, the v8s will be highly sought after...

Plus the end of the day who are the people buying v8s? Probably the majority of people that can afford them.

 

[LCtwohundred]

What about the California guy that died in a tesla because of autonomous driving while he was playing a game on his tablet.

It's not about being perfect, it is about having fewer deaths per 100 million miles than the 1.18 currently caused by human drivers.

But we are in a weird spot right now where people expect too much from self driving systems (like your example). However, Waymo (where the user is not expected to pay attention) is looking very promising.

 

[Mogwai]

Is semi-decent, nearly autonomous vehicles (let's call them Teslas) better/safer at driving than our typical crappy driver? Is this about safety? Convenience? Taking a nap while driving or playing games to pass the time?

ANYTIME someone dies while using Tesla autopilot you hear about it 100 times and even to the point where a single death can be recalled as "the guy in California on his tablet."

There's a current article/presentation on the interwebs by a Tesla engineer that explains how much more complex (but scalable) their approach is vs the competition (Waymo). Waymo is on rails. Tesla treats every intersection and response in real time - more like a human. Tesla admits its approach to self-driving is harder but might be only way to scale - Electrek

^^what he said

 

[aznxfactor]

I would like to know what they classify as part of that total number. Unfortunately in my opinion all these government numbers are biased: ie
-suicide by a gun counts as a gun death.
-Person in a hospice gets the corona and is part of the corona death toll but if youre in the hospice, the end is near because of something else but corona?

The good news is that I am interested in the new hybrid land cruiser whenever it releases. Very curious about that one.

 

[TeCKis300]

There's a giant span between features of driver convenience, driver safety, and then all culminating to full autonomous driving capabilities. It doesn't have to be 100% autonomous to offer significant convenience and safety.

Tesla's current implementation is not full autonomous yet. In certain settings like long freeway road trips, or slogging through traffic, it can and will fully pilot for hours. From that capability, stems great lower level benefits to safety and convenience. Not just great, but ginormous benefits to safety. It's not something that needs to be turned on and off, as the car is always monitoring as if it were autonomously driving, regardless if ones actively using it. A second pair of eyes that's always on alert to cover for human drivers indiscretions is not a bad thing. With very little false alerts from my experience versus other manufactures safety nets. My wife drives a new Model 3. In the software revisions in the past 6 months alone, it has continued to make larger leaps still.

I had a 2020 Lexus loaner a few months ago. It's safety and convenience is probably decades behind by comparison. Two decades after the Model 3 updates in recent months. It goes beyond autonomous driving, as legacy platforms and architectures are archaic by comparison. Passive safety is another area where Tesla's shine. It's why I put my wife in this new age Volvo.

I still love my 200-series for other reasons. But I am surely swayed in considering a cybertruck.

 

[Madtiger]

I love Tesla. Great cars/SUVs. Technology. But frankly, their build quality just suck. For example, the Model Y...there are stories and stories of customers refusing delivery due to horrible defects or quality lapse. And this is a platform that is based on an existing Model 3.

I would not want to be a first year owner of Cybertruck.

Tesla reportedly shipping Model Ys with significant manufacturing defects

Electrek and pro-Tesla subreddits are full of refused deliveries due to defects.

arstechnica.com

 

[bloc]

The other issue with “mostly autonomous” is the operator being lulled into a sense of security/complacency and not paying attention when they are supposed to be the safety backup.

When there is no autonomy the operator must pay attention otherwise the car doesn’t go anywhere. I think this is why semi-autonomous driving is a bit of a catch-22. Sure, the operator is SUPPOSED to pay attention.. but then the average person isn’t supposed to text and drive. But if they can, they do.

This is why to me the only realistic long-term solutions are drivers driving the cars or true full autonomy.

 

[TeCKis300]

You can say that about the dumb cruise control we've had for decades in every car. That feature has all the ability to lull you to sleep, without any driver alerts or warnings for not paying attention. Taking you full speed into whatever might lay ahead, without a beep, while one blissfully sleeps.

Tesla's system will continually check for your engagement. Continuously monitor the environment it's driving in. And alert you to impending situations. It's a very intuitive and well developed system. Sure, it has the potential for abuse, as does every other form of drivers aid, or just driving for that matter. May be useful to know that if it doesn't find you participating actively enough, it locks out the autonomous driving until a stop/restart.

My wife doesn't use any of autonomy features. I'm still more comfortable knowing it's still always looking out and protecting her. I do use it. It's simply amazing and I'm not easily impressed as I work on other types of autonomous platforms.

 

[eatSleepWoof]

Apples & oranges. Completely different vehicles, tailored towards very different needs.

Autonomous vehicles are for people who think of their cars as appliances. I can see the appeal if you're in the car commuting to work, but I can't see the appeal on a road trip, or any other type of driving. I enjoy driving my vehicles, and will not give it up until I'm forced to (which I believe will happen sooner or later in my lifetime).

 

[mcgaskins]

Autonomous vehicles are for people who think of their cars as appliances. I can see the appeal if you're in the car commuting to work, but I can't see the appeal on a road trip, or any other type of driving. I enjoy driving my vehicles, and will not give it up until I'm forced to (which I believe will happen sooner or later in my lifetime).

Sounds like you haven't spent any time in a Tesla, especially a performance oriented variant

 

[18Cruiser]

A factor I haven't seen a resolution for is liability. I don't see any manufacturer offering autonomy (level 4+ on any public road):

a) a law is passed giving them a liability waiver from injury/death and possibly property damage, and/or,

Bad idea in my experience, that's where they (the car company/programmers) get sloppy with details and innocent people get hurt or die because there is no responsibility for the car company/programmers negligence.

b) every vehicle is tied into some computer network so each vehicle knew what to do in the event of something unexpected happening, e.g., if the vehicle hit a rain submerged pothole and blew out the rack & pinion steering system.

Good idea, for safety, probably. But not so good, if you don't want .gov knowing everywhere you go. Example, I don't have anything illegal in my car but I won't just let the police search it either.

 

[M1911]

I can see the appeal if you're in the car commuting to work, but I can't see the appeal on a road trip, or any other type of driving. I enjoy driving my vehicles, and will not give it up until I'm forced to (which I believe will happen sooner or later in my lifetime).

I did two road trips from Boston out west and back. 5000 miles one summer. 6500 miles another summer. Driving the interstate through Nebraska, Kansas, eastern CO, etc, is boring as all hell. I would gladly have more autonomous features for that.

 

[eatSleepWoof]

Sounds like you haven't spent any time in a Tesla, especially a performance oriented variant

I have no qualms about the performance an electric vehicle can deliver. This thread is specifically about autonomous vehicles, and thus the autonomous driving experience.