KBB prices vs Real world prices

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PrahranNYC

Joined
Aug 22, 2016
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New York
I'm currently on the hunt for a 2006-7 LX470.

I know that the series 100 retains value at a rate unheard outside of Porsches, Tacomas and Wranglers

But I'm seeing prices about $3k-8k over KBB prices (KBB Fair market price $16,900 - '06 w/140k). Admittedly these are via car dealers, but that's a huge delta.

So I'm assuming KBB isnt a good gauge.

Here's a listing I was going to inspect.

Any thoughts as to what I should offer?
 
It's hard shopping for these vehicles because I would be inclined to offer somewhere around $15k but the dealer will likely balk. It's frustrating because that truck is overpriced, but will likely sell for $20k to someone who just wants something reliable and doesn't really know what it is. I would just figure out what price you are comfortable paying, and shop in that price range. You will eventually find something that suits your needs. Just a matter of being patient...
 
I started out looking for a 2006-07 LX470. A friend that is auto dealer told me in our area they go for 20k or so at the Mannheim auction. That led me to look for an older model. I have seen several sell over 20k.
 
Yeah, KBB is more for the banks and insurance companies. When you're talking street prices, it's entirely a function of local supply and demand and the willingness and ability to negotiate.

You'll pay what you can negotiate for and you'll receive what you're willing to accept. These are zero sum negotiations, they aren't reported and stored in any database other than a government sales tax but it just depends on the seller/buyer what the price is..
 
Banks use black book Value is my understanding and their risk increases eith the age of a used vehicle and likewise loan rates are typically higher for an older vehicle. I.e currently there is 0.0 to 2.2% financing available for new units with good credit.

Find an Arkansas or Texas land cruiser - no rust and probably less stop and go per mile. But you're likely to pay 2k to 3k over kbb or at least thats my observation.

I sold a 4 runner for $3k over kbb a couple years ago. Not a single scratch on it and fully loaded.
 
I have found that KBB and Edmunds are grossly wrong when pricing a 100 series with low miles. These trucks command top dollar if they are nice and have a good history. My father bought a 2008 SC430 with 9k on the clock for $35,000. He could care less about the cost, he wanted a mint SC that was as close to new as he could find. His still had the plastic over the trunk mat! He drove a new RC Lexus and did not like the seats and loved the SC.

He has a 1998 LX470 that he bought new and is currently looking for another 100 series with under 50k on the odometer. Does not matter the cost, as long as it is black,clean, and a perfect service history he will most likely buy it and never consider the cost.

When you get a little down the road in age cost is just not a factor that is heavily weighted.

If you find something you like and it all checks out buy it and you will not have second thoughts.
 
KBB and Black Book are pretty funny when it comes to LC/LXs. There are just too many variables to quantify and I think neither come close. Texas valued my 20 year old LX at $2,875 for tax purposes (standard presumptive value on any vehicle 20 years old or older)....got to LOVE that. KBB said mine was worth $7,200.....tell that to the 3 people that were waiting to pay more than I paid for my LX (hint: way more than $7,500). As for a loan, good luck....I jokingly tossed the idea to my bank (Wells Fargo) and they were completely lost (had no idea what an LX or LC was) and asked repeatedly why I was considering buying a 20 year old vehicle with 150k on the clock. I purchased cash so the bank didn't get any interest. In the end, I researched here what others were paying, budgeted what I felt comfortable with and searched (test drove a bunch) before finding the LX that "spoke" to me. Mileage wasn't the driving factor, maintenance was....that's something KBB doesn't take into consideration and is HUGELY important with these vehicles. Purchasing this LX was a far more educational and enjoyable experience than I've had with any other vehicle. This has been the only vehicle I've ever owned that I didn't feel any "buyer's remorse" over.
 
miles and condition are key to older units. My 02 with 62k booked at about 12k. I paid much more than that for it and still feel it is worth more than what I paid after seeing other higher mile units out there for sale in the last year. Good 100's are a fraction of a new LC / LX costs even at the most ridiculous retail prices. The vintage car rules now apply to them; which means pay up for a good one and it should pay off later down the road in maintenance savings and resale values.
 
Like RKTINC, I paid a huge premium price over KBB for my mint 2002 LX470.
I spent almost a year looking for a decent LX470. Found 3 that I liked and
felt that KBB was the "gospel" and saw everything quickly get snatched up.
The game rule is that nice 100's can command premium pricing and sell quickly.
You got people like me who can't get enthusiastic over new vehicles and are on
the hunt for a 100. You got to decide if you want to stay with KBB and get
lucky, or up the ante.
 
RKTINC said:
miles and condition are key to older units. My 02 with 62k booked at about 12k. I paid much more than that for it and still feel it is worth more than what I paid after seeing other higher mile units out there for sale in the last year. Good 100's are a fraction of a new LC / LX costs even at the most ridiculous retail prices. The vintage car rules now apply to them; which means pay up for a good one and it should pay off later down the road in maintenance savings and resale values.
Click to expand...

Same with me with me when I bought my 01 LX (no nav) with 95k on it. A few month earlier, I found a 02 LX with 89k (with nav) miles at a Lexus dealer, after my test drive I said i'll take it, but another salesperson sold it while I was on the test drive!
 
100's are tricky because the supply is limited and there are people out there that are willing to pay through the nose for good examples. A very low mileage '06-'07 going for over 30k was not unheard of a couple years ago (things seemed to have softened up a bit now) but it just illustrates that KBB isn't really as applicable here. I hunted for my '06 LC for quite some time and I paid a premium for it because of service records and it having a minimal amount of rust (I knew I had to have it), but I don't regret it at all and still believe that I couldn't have found a better car for the money.

A vehicle is worth what someone is willing to pay for it, and for good LCs/LXs, that just happens to be a lot!

As for what you should offer, it's hard to say, but I'd start at $19k and be prepared to go up. If it truly is that clean, I don't see it sticking around for long, even at that price.
 
It is all about condition and miles. I looked for approx 1 year for an exc 100 series with no upper price limit. Finally found a 2005 one owner, all original including tires, 55K, garage kept, exc condition one on Craigslist LA. Drove down from OR the next day and was happy to pay 32,000. It still needed tires (1,700) and a FULL service at my Toyota dealer (3,000). With all that I know I got a good deal based on dozens of LCs I looked at that were "driven hard and put away wet".
 
As most people will say the prices for these things are as much as you are willing to pay if you want the right one bad enough. There are not a lot of them, they only made ~8,000 lx470's for 2006-07 combined. Compare that to the Honda civic and they have already sold 31,000+ for just April of this year and just in the US.

Anyway, Good luck with the search you will find the right one eventually.
 
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I remember my friends calling me an "idiot" for buying a truck with 185K miles...then i drove them around and they all were like, "wtf, this truck is smoother than my 2 year old car" lol

What a marvel piece of engineering
 
Bottom Line: KBB values become less and less reliable as cars get older. With 100-series now 10-15 years old, mechanical and cosmetic condition can vary WIDELY on rigs with the same year and mileage. KBB's condition guides cannot accurately capture these differences.

If you see a vehicle you like, don't be afraid to offer whatever you think is fair. You can't make them sell it to at you're price, but you never know what they will accept until you try.

bpe3
 
As long as there are people that line up to pay 20%-30%+ over book value, dealers will continue to over price these trucks.

What your insurance is willing to pay to replace the truck would be the best barometer of its actual value. In your negotiations, ask the dealer to provide you with examples of insurance carriers who would support that asking price-(never going to happen).
 
abuck99 said:
As long as there are people that line up to pay 20%-30%+ over book value, dealers will continue to over price these trucks.

What your insurance is willing to pay to replace the truck would be the best barometer of its actual value. In your negotiations, ask the dealer to provide you with examples of insurance carriers who would support that asking price-(never going to happen).
Click to expand...

While I agree to a certain extent, if the vehicles are selling at (or near) the prices that the dealers are asking, can you still call them over priced? I'd argue that they are worth what people are willing to pay, and in the 100 series case, that seems to be well over book value (for clean examples)

I'm not sure how insurance works, but my gut is telling me that they won't likely value it appropriately based the book values we see vs what they sell for.

Not trying to pick a fight, just genuinely enjoying this discussion!
 
spaber05 said:
While I agree to a certain extent, if the vehicles are selling at (or near) the prices that the dealers are asking, can you still call them over priced? I'd argue that they are worth what people are willing to pay, and in the 100 series case, that seems to be well over book value (for clean examples)

I'm not sure how insurance works, but my gut is telling me that they won't likely value it appropriately based the book values we see vs what they sell for.

Not trying to pick a fight, just genuinely enjoying this discussion!
Click to expand...

I dont take your post as picking a fight- I think we all understand the there are many perspectives shared here on "value" vs price; these are simply opinions. I respect yours.

There is a line where the emotional overrules the rational with these trucks.

Price: For the buyer, a 100 is worth what the buyer is willing to pay. But from a valuation perspective; what a bank or insurance company is willing to underwrite the value at total loss or replacement should be the reality check for its true "value". The delta between what you own it for and what insurance will pay out comes down to personal choice. Rational kind of goes out the window, and the emotional creeps in. How much loss are you willing to absorb for the "emotional" connection to owning/operating the truck? I'm not saying its a bad thing, but let's be honest about the rationale.

Admittedly, with all the mods on my truck, I'll never recover my outlay in a worst case scenario, but its my hobby truck and I'm having fun building it and very much enjoying the use of it (the emotional overruling the rational). The goal was to build a reliable overlander. My 05 was a no-accident, 1 owner truck, regularly serviced at the same dealer from day 1 until I bought it. Mechanically 7/10 Exterior 6/10, Interior 7/10. It had 160k miles and I paid $13,500. While I felt that price was a little high for this truck, it met the overall criteria for what I had planned for it for build budget and intended use.

I think 150k mile 06/07 models with no accidents and reasonably well documented service history are upper mid to high teens (16-19k) value range based on region. I certainly wouldn't pay over that unless the mileage was well under 100k and it was absolutely flawless.
 
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