Will prices on the 200 model significantly drop in the used market? (1 Viewer)

[mike552]

First time poster, long time lurker here.

Looking at 2014-2015 200 series, and more realistically at a LX due to the better deals that are available on the used car market.

There is strong speculation that a completely redesigned LC/LX will be coming out by the end of 2020, apparently with some form of forced induction 3.5L as well as a hybrid option.

I would think that a redesign would make the 200 series drop in price, like any other model in this scenario, but the lack of a V8 on the redesign makes me wonder if the 200’s will be MORE sought after.

I’d like to hear some opinions from people that may know more than me on this topic.

Thanks y’all.

 

[silverfstop]

Doubtful.

There will be a large group of buyers who feel that the "tried and true" V8 has a lot of value over FI or hybrid. Additionally, if the LC were to move to Unibody (which I don't see happening, but whatever) - there will also be a group clamoring for "the last of the true body-on-frame LCs".

Also, it will take a while for the aftermarket to catch up and develop for the 300 series.

So, while prices will come down, I wouldn't hold my breath for bargain basement pricing on 200 series LC's any time soon.

 

[Tex68w]

Agreed, I don't see any real shift in late model 200-series values until after the 300-series has been out for some years.

 

[ArnieC]

Considering a nice 2006 or 2007 100 series still change hands for $20k, I wouldn't sweat the depreciation on a 200 series. They will still be world class for a long time and are a niche vehicle. One thing I would say is that the LC has a higher buy-in but will have a higher resale also. There are some people out there like me who want the Toyota badging and Land Cruiser nameplate and are willing to pay for it, even though on paper the LX570 is better in every way.

 

[Fisher23]

The "new" factor usually comes in without any proven reliability.
People do not buy a land cruiser or tundra for good mileage or "new features", it is primarily for reliability.

 

[Sac Cerevisiae]

If you’re holding out to purchase thinking the new model will depress values on the 200, I see two problems:

1) the next model probably isn’t coming out for few years (2021+). &

2) the demand for the 200 won’t be affected much because buyers would be looking for a less expensive option than new $85k+ truck with no immediate aftermarket support.

 

[hickuptruck]

A big fat NO.

200 series prices won't drop when the 300 series comes out, and the 300 wont be out for another 2+ years, I gaurantee it. The new tundra will come out a year before the 300.

There's just not enough used 200 series to go around. Look at the new sales numbers since it's a niche vehicle, and then look at how many people want a used one. There's more demand than supply for 200 series.

So for the deprivation curve, your best bet is to get that 2014-2015 now since the per year depreciation has levelled off. The first 3 years had the highest per year depreciation and now it has become more or less closer to straight line depreciation.

 

[Reckless]

Fair warning: I plan to buy all black/grey unmolested 200LC from 2008-2011 with little to no rust on under carriage as soon as prices bottom out. Just on principle.

I dont think I can ever get used to forced induction V6.

 

[Tex68w]

I dont think I can ever get used to forced induction V6.

Agreed, I wasn't a fan of the Eco-Boost in the Raptor, just felt off.

 

[Eric Sarjeant]

I agree with everyone. NO

When the 200 came out in 2008, dealers collected MSRP for over a year. So already you’re looking at a $10k surcharge in relation to invoice (assuming price stays the same). Not many guys on this board are willing to do that. As for engine, the 300 will be a turbo-6, likely 2021 M.Y. Look at the V8 4Runner for example, not drastic more power, but hugely more sought after. I predict same with the 200 after the 300 is out. Same with aftermarket availability, as mentioned above, years delay will only help 200s value.

As for LC vs LX. Here is why I feel like LC is still better IMO:
1) it’s stealth-wealth. Not flashy, few really know what it is... and yes, the heritage aspect is part of it too.
2) (going to sound stupid) LX has smaller cup holders than LC and bad placement of them too. Large cups actually touch the center stack because the joystick mouse thingy is where the cup holders are on the LC
3) Large wheels - lower profile tires. LX is a way better mall cruiser, but why have 22s on a very capable off-road vehicle. Doesn’t make much sense.
4) ACH - debatable of course... if you want a truly amazing suspension, forget it on the LX. It’s one thing ripping it out on an old 100...

The LX ultra-wide screen is beautiful, but I really like the LC too. A touch screen is more natural than the mouse IMO.

Just my 2cents. I’m biased... good question and thought

 

[Tex68w]

I agree with everyone. NO

When the 200 came out in 2008, dealers collected MSRP for over a year. So already you’re looking at a $10k surcharge in relation to invoice (assuming price stays the same). Not many guys on this board are willing to do that. As for engine, the 300 will be a turbo-6, likely 2021 M.Y. Look at the V8 4Runner for example, not drastic more power, but hugely more sought after. I predict same with the 200 after the 300 is out. Same with aftermarket availability, as mentioned above, years delay will only help 200s value.

As for LC vs LX. Here is why I feel like LC is still better IMO:
1) it’s stealth-wealth. Not flashy, few really know what it is... and yes, the heritage aspect is part of it too.
2) (going to sound stupid) LX has smaller cup holders than LC and bad placement of them too. Large cups actually touch the center stack because the joystick mouse thingy is where the cup holders are on the LC
3) Large wheels - lower profile tires. LX is a way better mall cruiser, but why have 22s on a very capable off-road vehicle. Doesn’t make much sense.
4) ACH - debatable of course... if you want a truly amazing suspension, forget it on the LX. It’s one thing ripping it out on an old 100...

The LX ultra-wide screen is beautiful, but I really like the LC too. A touch screen is more natural than the mouse IMO.

Just my 2cents. I’m biased... good question and thought

I hope you're right about the new 300-series coming out next year, you never know when Toyota will actually push out a new model, they are the kings of kicking the can down the road as long as humanly possible lol.

Your complaints on the LX are valid, the cup holders being the most important, they flat out suck. AHC is a benefit for the mild off-roader and daily driver IMHO, but for those that want a fully built rig the LC is the better route to go. For the DD, go to dinner, weekend travel, and occasional off-roading, the LX is the ticket and the interior appointments tip the scale.

 

[Markuson]

Good luck finding modifications (bumper’s, sliders, etc) for the 300 in the first few years.

If you want a stock vehicle with maybe ATs only...knock yourself out with a 300 (and it will probably do very well off road in that form, as the LC/LX does)...
..But it was 8 years into the 200 before Slee and others had a rear bumper for it... ARB will likely be first...but slim pickings beyond that for a while.

Not knocking fabricators...it’s just that it takes time before the new model Cruiser numbers are sufficient to justify the work it takes to do production runs.

 

[Blondebaerde]

Considering a nice 2006 or 2007 100 series still change hands for $20k, I wouldn't sweat the depreciation on a 200 series. They will still be world class for a long time and are a niche vehicle. One thing I would say is that the LC has a higher buy-in but will have a higher resale also. There are some people out there like me who want the Toyota badging and Land Cruiser nameplate and are willing to pay for it, even though on paper the LX570 is better in every way.

So, my first post to this forum is a reply

Bought a '13, blk/blk, the other week (three weeks ago), for about exactly what it was worth from a local broker. Condition is exceptional, for 83K miles, and I looked at a few before this one came along. Around here, PacNW, you have to snap these up when they come available, they do not last a week on the used market assuming fair (market) pricing.

The broker gave me fair money on my trade, too, an '07 Tacoma Xrunner. Bought that new Thanksgiving 2006, and 120K miles later its time had come. Someone will get a sweet deal on that, those things run until Judgment Day too as most if not all here know. The lack of versatility in a 2wd sport truck was always a bit hobbling, but I lived with it w/o complaint throughout and was only trapped a few times due to lack of 4wd or AWD. Not the best snow vehicle, to say the least.

I looked at two LX570s, too, of similar age and miles but just a bit less cost. A blk/tan I observed was indeed pretty sharp, with 50K miles. Funny, though: looking at all three with an open mind that Sunday, the LC leapt out at me as more, uh, "me." Can't say why. Maybe the legend, or that the LX's I looked at were c. 80 days on the lot w/o moving. Hmm. Brilliant vehicles, obviously, and I'm casting zero aspersions...the LC simply was way more "me", from the heart vs. head. I'm actually more of an urbanite vs. off-roader, so the LX might have made more sense from a Executive Cruiser (as I call it) perspective. What the hell, though: there are 2-3 LX's for every sharp LC around here. I have zero regrets and probably won't, though snob appeal of Lexus is pretty strong I must say.

I love the experience at three Toy dealers around here, one in-particular (Bellevue WA) is batting 1.000 in about 13 years of minor to major service. They did a quick oil change for me last week, preemptively since records were sketchy as-delivered on last time that was done...hopefully not too far back, but who knows. Mentioned because people say the Lexus experience is at least as white-glove. Guess I won't find out in the near term.

That Tacoma really grabbed me, as an all-purpose vehicle, though that TRD Supercharger added in '14 dropped mileage to about 15mpg around town so the LC doesn't really bother me with that thirsty 5.7. w/o it, the Tacoma seldom saw more than 17mpg for my use, though I'm something of a sporty driver. Oddly enough, today (Sunday) was the first time I've put petal to the floor on my LC, when being screwed with by some asshat in a 40mph zone near my house. Nuh uh. The LC scoots right along, that was that, goodbye Mr. Nissan jerk. Had to laugh. Yeah, it float a bit, but at 5,800 lbs ...what, I should be suprised? The compliant suspension astounds me, I like how it soaks up bumps.

Hopefully I'll keep the LC for years, a decade, more. Really hope so. I'm sure it will be fine, inspection during my oil change revealed not a thing wrong with mine. No surprise there, just getting broken in. More questions later, thanks!

 

[bloc]

I haven’t seen it explained that way.

LX= executive cruiser.

And like you, the cruiser was just.. “me”.

After some minor tweaks.. Couldn’t be happier.

 

[hickuptruck]

The second that a AHC delete for the 200 series comes out, I couldn't care if its Executive Cruiser or Land Cruiser. But for now, LC has an advantage for those that wheel their 200s with aftermarket suspension. This is unlike the 100 series where AHC delete was a simple fuse and coil spring/TB swap.

I know that AHC delete for the LX is simple as swap out the coil and coilover for an aftermarket piece, and unplugging the AHC ECU, but unfortunately the dash goes xmas tree with lights and TC, ATRAC, and all the offroad goodies renders unusuable.

 

[Chocolate]

Take a look at late model 100 series values. They're still up there.

If you're worried about resale, buying used is already shielding you from most of the depreciation, which happens in the first two years.

Like said above, having the last big V8 will help, not hurt, resale values, just like the 4runner.

 

[mike552]

Interesting perspective, guys. Thank you all for your input.

I guess the only other question I’d have is, if I were buying a LC over an LX, should I buy a normal mileage 2013-2014 for around 40-47k, or should I dish out 53-57k for a comparatively slightly higher mileage 2016+?

 

[Cruisin911]

I had my LC at the dealer last week to look at an AIP issue and they had a brand new 2019 on the lot, grey with terra interior. Guy was pushing it so hard that the dealership offered to swap all my aftermarket goodies on to the new one. Very beautiful truck and nearly closed the deal on a spur of the moment decision. Needless to say, I don't know your particular situation but i would buy the newest you can. These trucks are amazing and you can't go wrong with any of the years you posted.

 

[Gappy]

Just follow the dollars. A new 300 is very likely to be priced even higher than the last 200. That alone will drive the used market on 200's and 100's up. It has happened many times on other vehicle's no matter what the manufacturer is.
Don't wait.

 

[Tex68w]

Interesting perspective, guys. Thank you all for your input.

I guess the only other question I’d have is, if I were buying a LC over an LX, should I buy a normal mileage 2013-2014 for around 40-47k, or should I dish out 53-57k for a comparatively slightly higher mileage 2016+?

It really all depends on your budget and whether or not you like/prefer the 2016+ facelift/redesign. IMHO I would always buy as new as possible, but I would also suggest getting one with as low mileage as possible as well, which is more important is for you to decide. I prefer the 2016+ looks both inside and out so I would personally lean that way, but a clean, low mileage 2016+ will put you in the the high $50's to low $60's down here in Texas. That's quite a price swing for a vehicle that underneath is identical to its 2013-2015 siblings. Best wishes in your search and congrats on your future 200 purchase.