I believe you are correct. I don't know the severity of your situation but it might be to far gone. Considering my patch is small I hope I can get away with a wrap but I haven't received a professional opinion. I would be surprised if a wrapping business wouldn't recommend it.I've wondered about wrapping as well. It's my understanding the core problem is with the base coat directly on the metal. I was (probably incorrectly) assuming that if this base layer fails it will cause wrap to just be connected to paint that is delaminating and "loose" so the hold of the wrap is only as good as the hold of the paint it is sitting over. Do you know if this is the case?
Honestly I partially want an excuse to have a sweet color that I cant get on a stock 470. I'm a little obsessed with the current GX color Nori Green.