Question: Price Drop's for Previous Model Years

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Nov 29, 2018
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Anyone have a guess at how long before we see a significant price drop of the '16-'19 after the arrival of the 2020 model years? I've got the luxury of a bit of time to search and wait. Assuming we see the 2020's by, say, November, when should the earlier models experience a drop, and how fast?
 
Depends on many factors. Oil price, new design, etc.

You can get an idea of what to expect by searching on Autotrader (U.S.) for a model year 1, 2, or 3 years older with respective miles.
 
I’m not sure if prices will fall much until the next gen comes out. 16+ seems to be holding up very well on the used market.

The US is overdue for a recession. I think I read somewhere that this is the longest stretch in history without a recession. Some economists are saying we are almost there. I hope not. Would be a great time to buy a new rig, assuming good cash flow and employment. A big factor will be housing values and if they drop substantially. A lot of people are enjoying equity in their homes, certainly don’t want that to evaporate.
 
The 2020 doesnt offer enough to differentiate it from the 2016 to the unwashed masses to drop the price enough. You are not going to see a split on the 2016-2019 to 2020+ like you see on the 2013-2015 to 2016+. If you find what you want for a good price, buy it.
 
A recession is coming. Wait 18 months for maximum discount.
Back in the last one a decade ago, I knew someone who got a brand new 08 200 off the lot for $49k + tax off the lot.
 
Back in the last one a decade ago, I knew someone who got a brand new 08 200 off the lot for $49k + tax off the lot.

What % was that off MSRP? New car dealers are desperate in a recession as people can’t buy new vehicles when they don’t have a job or are fearful of losing their job.
 
What % was that off MSRP? New car dealers are desperate in a recession as people can’t buy new vehicles when they don’t have a job or are fearful of losing their job.

Probably like 25% off or so. GM 1500 trucks are 20% right off the MSRP at the moment, then you can probably negotiate another 10-15% off depending on how willing the dealer is, since they are getting slayed by Ram and F150 sales.

But 25% off a 08 LC200 is a bargain. Drive it for 5-6 years and 100k miles, and only loose like $10k on depreciation.
 
When my wife and I brought our 2018, there were a ton of 2019’s already on the lots and in a holding pattern due to the Airbag recall. We got the 2018 for $72,500 while it was sitting next to the exact same 2019 that they wouldn’t let go for under $80,000. Our particular truck had 50 or so miles on it from test drives but I would call it pretty much brand new and no difference from the 2019s. So if you’re looking for a discount, maybe you’ll find one next January/February if there are some 2019 holdouts on the lot. Good luck
 
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