Nice little side business.

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I don’t see why it’s not. Less than $3000 an acre with mature hardwoods, improvements and a buisesss on it?

Hot Springs is one of the hottest towns in the south for growth.

Also, there is a new generation of rock whompers beeing created all the time with those exciting Live streams from Tolleson

Lastly, JT you will soon be able to see 1/3 of the park that was previously not viewable from behind a 2F motor.
 
About a million too high. It'll go (if they will take it) for somewhere between 2-2.5 mil. I'd love to see someone we know in the mix of ownership ;-)
 
wngrog said:
I don’t see why it’s not. Less than $3000 an acre with mature hardwoods, improvements and a buisesss on it?

Hot Springs is one of the hottest towns in the south for growth.

Also, there is a new generation of rock whompers beeing created all the time with those exciting Live streams from Tolleson

Lastly, JT you will soon be able to see 1/3 of the park that was previously not viewable from behind a 2F motor.
Click to expand...

I'll try to summarize what I feel to be the current 'wisdom of the crowd' analysis:
  • Despite the tourism based growth statistics, the park is in a relatively remote location, and is, for all intents and purposes, undevelopable.
  • The market price for similar bulk acreage in the area is closer to half the value stated above...at best.
  • The timber value is largely insignificant due to the facts that: 1) if the only future for the land is to house an offload park, then who wants to wheel there after it's been clear cut, and 2) the thought is that the timber is second if not third growth...which, as I understand it, impacts the value if clear cutting was a consideration to begin with.
  • I have not seen the books, but I can't imagine that the bottom line net profit figure would contribute any significant portion to the ask/offer price.
  • All that said, from an investor's point of view, more than likely, this is purely a land and 'improvements' purchase. At $1500/acre and taking into account the current value of all the 'improvements', it seems like $2m would be a solid offer. At that purchase price, an investor would hope see maybe a couple % yearly dividend and would pray that the land values continued to inch up.
Lastly, the little '2F that could' has seen a WHOLE lot of that park...arguably, more than it should have. Why don't you buy the park so we can keep beating the s*** out of these 40's?
 
Even at full price, that's under $3k per acre, and it's full of mature hardwood timber.

You can select cut that timber, using conservative hill country numbers, cutting trees at 16-18" DBH (diameter at breast height) and expect to get minimum of $300 per acre. Doing that would not affect the commercial viability of the park at all.

If you bought it just for the timber, and clear cut it (timber logs like above and everything else for pulp) you could expect to get a minimum of $500 per acre.

Pulling out 150 acres (guessing here), that means if you purchased for $3mm, you could immediately recoup over 10% of your investment in cash doing a select cut. $330k cash is nice operating cushion for park business activities, and that's on the low side of what you'd expect to get out of the select cut timber. Plus, timber prices are down right now.

If you clear cut it, you are probably killing the commercial viability of the park, but if you're clear cutting it means you are buying the land speculatively anyway. So, you could get a minimum of half a million back in cash, which applied toward the purchase price (est $3mm) lowers your per acre price down to under $2k, which is crazy low, even for rural Hot Springs. Taking into account the growth and potential infrastructure expansion, it's a steal if looking solely at price per acre.

Somebody will buy this. It won't sit.
 
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No one is mentioning that the bypass will be right by Panther Valley and they are buying the land starting at end of the year... The cabins next to PV will be where the road is. So it will be an easier access.

Current management has not made this an attractive place to be as is....BJ ran that place 1k better.
 
Bomar your right about BJ, he did a good job managing the park, but was under the owners thumb and got burned out and disagreed with some of the decisions the owners made, which was always a cluster from my understanding. It’s been interesting watch it develop, with the different partners and managers. we wheeled there before it was a park, accessing it from the gas line off hwy 70. I really have little interest in it now but do have a lot of history there helping to pioneer and cut a lot of the trails , then spending almost every weekend there for a lot of years, until I just got to where I’d rather go explore, than spend a small fortune to run the same stuff and tear up my junk. If I remember right there isn’t a lot of good timber there, most being scrub oak that’s had its share of cutting over the years. Maybe it’s because I don’t run in that crowd much anymore, and could be wrong but I’ve seen a decrease in “crawlers” over the years maybe due to the cost or people just not wanting to put that new 50k Jeep on the rocks, hell the last I heard Belcher had even sold his Jeep and Randy Smith wasn’t going much. I think a lot of folks are opting instead to go run the national forest and such. It just seems if it were profitable Or had a bright future they wouldn’t be selling it
 
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Interesting thoughts on all this. Will be fun to see how it all plays out. Hot Springs is a very dynamic town to live in for sure, and most residents are unaware of HSORVP or Millcreek Road existence.

If Bossman were closer to retirement, he'd for sure be an excellent replacement for ALL of current management if the new owner(s) were so inclined to shake it up
 
Just looked up that bypass project, it is going to go right thru there. Be interesting to see how close the final alignment ends up to the park.
 
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