Future values of our beloved LC 200 series...? (2 Viewers)

[serpico1]

Hi all,

Just curious with all the car.com prices and other websites and dealer sites selling well above MSRP, how do you think the near term and future values will be affected?
I have said in a previous post the 200 series will go down as the most sought after because

1. V8
2. Proven bulletproof platform
3. Last model year of arguably the most famous name in the history of vehicles
4. All new cars moving towards electric, and turbo engines
5. Last analog suv out there
6. People want what they cannot have

Of course there are some ok deals out there, not everyone is paying above MSRP or at MSRP but that being said the days of invoice 78k are no more. and used prices have increased dramatically.

What do you guys believe will happen to values over the next 3 years, 10 years and 20 years.
Thanks

Eric

 

[JS22STL]

The audience for a 200 is limited to start - hence why sales were always low. I think the current group of individuals that are interested or on the fence about a 200 will continue to have the passion for the truck. That being said, i dont think the 200 will all of a sudden pull in additional interest. Certainly not from the younger crowd who want tech and potential electric.

I think you'll see depreciation in the near term slow due to lack of dealer inventory and last year of manufacturing. I think you'll see some plateauing of value in the 40k-50k range once you hit that 7-10 year mark. Similarly to what you see in values of FJ's.

 

[HSTexan]

That is such an impossible question to answer because of the amount of unknown variables. I fully believe we will have another vehicle in the US with the Land Cruiser name plate within 10 years, maybe even 5. You're correct that it probably won't be a big V8, but 10 years from now what if it's running a TT V6 that get's 30MPG and makes 500hp/tq? That would be pretty dang appealing to a lot of people, especially considering the bulk of LC owners are city drivers. I don't think we will ever see value retention and escalation like we have with air cooled 911's and MKIV Supra's, but I do think they will hold their value in the short term better than any other LC.

The problem with the LC is that it's extremely expensive which narrows your customer base by quite a bit. I think there is a slight chance that it goes the way of TRD Pro 4Runners which sell at MSRP even 2-3 years down the line--the biggest issue is that there are way more people who want a TRD Pro 4Runner because it fits their budget than there are who can make an LC fit their budget. I think as soon as a new LC is announced for the states values will take a big hit until they settle once the populous has decided what to feel about the new one.

 

[04UZJ100]

You’ll never make money on a new Land Cruiser. They may hold their values very well, and may plateau at some point. They won’t be worth more in the future, though.

 

[ToothDr]

You’ll never make money on a new Land Cruiser. They may hold their values very well, and may plateau at some point. They won’t be worth more in the future, though.

I wouldn't say never. An original owner of a early 80's FJ40 or 80-89 FJ60/62 could sell those trucks for far more the MSRP, assuming good/fair condition. Price is dependent on time and scarcity.

 

[tominboise]

I wouldn't say never. An original owner of a early 80's FJ40 or 80-89 FJ60/62 could sell those trucks for far more the MSRP, assuming good/fair condition. Price is dependent on time and scarcity.

Yeah, but, those are 40 year old platforms, still viable in today's world. In 30-40 years from now, who knows what the landscape for ICE vehicles will be. A few collectors will be around, for sure, but how many?

 

[Chewbacca]

The audience for a 200 is limited to start - hence why sales were always low. I think the current group of individuals that are interested or on the fence about a 200 will continue to have the passion for the truck. That being said, i dont think the 200 will all of a sudden pull in additional interest. Certainly not from the younger crowd who want tech and potential electric.

I think you'll see depreciation in the near term slow due to lack of dealer inventory and last year of manufacturing. I think you'll see some plateauing of value in the 40k-50k range once you hit that 7-10 year mark. Similarly to what you see in values of FJ's.

Yeah, I'd look to the FJ market to see what will likely happen to LCs in America. Resale value will remain high, but they are not going to appreciate.

 

[4wheelgreg]

Land Cruisers are a acquired taste , most people think they are a overpriced vehicle , they think more is better , Navigator or Escalade is a better truck for your buck .
Cars and Trucks are the fast devaluating asset you can own .
Young people don’t want cars or to drive ... I know so many older people with nice car collections , the kids don’t want them they want the cash and to play on there phone and devises .
I feel any car collection are going to hit the wall , quality fuel and fuel prices are going to change everything , now EV is going to become more main stream .
Young people don’t want to collect cars , I see the future car market even more grim for people think cars are going to be a investment , the bottom is going to fall out .
I have had a lot of cars and trucks , vehicles are what made good memories .
I’m lucky to be at a point to buy the best vehicle for my buck which is a 200 LC , I Hope Toyota continues the dependability and longevity in what ever form they may come in .
Not buying them knowing they are not a investment .

 

[TheGrrrrr]

I think there is way too much speculation and optimism on this topic, particularly due to what we are seeing with regard to values of the 80 Series. Will the 200 be the 80 series 20 years from now? Probably not. The 80 series is benefiting from the fact that ICE is still the norm. The 200 will be up a against a once in a hundred year technological inflection point that no other passenger vehicle has had to deal with since the horse drawn carriage.

That said, the only thing I'm willing to put my name on is that a well maintained, rust-free 200 series may never drop below $25k in today's money. That number might dip to $20k, particularly if there is a deep recession coupled with a spike in fuel prices, but over the long term I see that as the floor price for what knowledgable buyers are looking for.

I'm usually wrong, so who knows.

 

[CharlieS]

Chit chat, non tech, move along folks.

 

[unclemat]

Chit chat, non tech, move along folks.

I wish ih8mud had model specific subforums.

 

[kcjaz]

If the resale value of a LC is a big factor in your decision to buy LC, you are probably making a financial mistake. I will never get a monetary return on my LC and that is especially true for the modifications I have and plan to install. I proved this to myself with an FJ60 20 years ago. The payback is in lifestyle and enjoyment. The only relevance resale value has is how much money I potentially could recoup from this hobby should I decide to get out. IMO, if I really need that number to be greater than zero, I can't afford the hobby. If my LC was just my car for daily transportation, and all I cared about was fiduciary responsibility, a LC is almost certainly not the best choice out there. I'm not trying to poke anyone in the eye here as everyone has their own reasons for the decisions they make on what to spend their money on but IMHO most of the time, when people bring up resale value of a car, they are rationalizing a decision made for other reasons. I don't see any reason to rationalize buying a LC. Buy it for whatever reason. Even if that reason is simply just because it makes you happy. Then just realize, like all decisions, you have to live with the results.

edit: definitely none tech chit chat.

 

[04UZJ100]

The ICE ain’t going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[luke27617]

Yet another thread on the same topic. SEARCH is your friend

 

[Redbull]

These threads are common amongst every car forum in recent times.

Not singling out the OP but people just want to drive a vehicle for free or lose as little money as possible.

The sheer energy expended on this speculation if diverted to productive avenues could pay for a lot of depreciation.

To answer, they will drop a little and hold. Expect to pay $40k+ for good condition 2013+ models.

 

[serpico1]

Agree. With the thoughts of the group and sorry this was placed in the wrong section. I was just curious what everyone else thought. I actually bought the car for the right reasons so I am OK and I’m a true Toyota enthusiast fan and very loyal to the brand. The Land Cruiser was my dream car that I saved up for for many years. I planned on the car for the next 20 years so I am truly not worried about resale value but I was curious about what the market was going to do and what everyone else thought that’s my question thus my question

Anyway thanks again to the group everyone have a wonderful weekend

 

[JS22STL]

Agree. With the thoughts of the group and sorry this was placed in the wrong section. I was just curious what everyone else thought. I actually bought the car for the right reasons so I am OK and I’m a true Toyota enthusiast fan and very loyal to the brand. The Land Cruiser was my dream car that I saved up for for many years. I planned on the car for the next 20 years so I am truly not worried about resale value but I was curious about what the market was going to do and what everyone else thought that’s my question thus my question

Anyway thanks again to the group everyone have a wonderful weekend

Agreed! I enjoy pumping every gallon of gas into this guzzling machine! We will enjoy ours for many many years.

 

[TheGrrrrr]

There is a technical aspect to this if you use the 80 Series as an example. Maintenance, modifications and rust seem to have the biggest impact on resale value once the vehicle becomes attractive to a different demographic than the original market. For example, even used (2nd owner) 200 series LC's that go for over $40k typically aren't being purchased for off-road and modding. That market is often going to be a 3rd owner for that particular vehicle (in my case I'm a 2nd owner who fits the 3rd owner class). For that 3rd owner type (one who mods and off-roads) the three most important factors for evaluating the vehicle are evidence of abuse, maintenance history and rust. Many folks see off-road mods as evidence of abuse, and generally like to source stock trucks to modify themselves. Maintenance history is on everyone's list as is rust. Go look at any 80 series available. The price impacts of those three thing outweigh even mileage in many cases.

My point is that keeping your 200 series rust free, properly maintained and repaired (with documentation) and limiting modifications are the best way to retain resale value as the truck becomes widely attractive to what I'm calling the 3rd owner class. A 30 year old 200 series with these attributes will still cost over $25k probably forever. Rust, major mods and lack of maintenance and it's going to dip into the sub $10k range. These are all technical topics that we discuss here every day. So... have I brought it on-topic for the technical forum?

Yes, I'm as tired of these conversations as anyone, but when folks are excited about their truck, feel great about the long term value and nobody IRL is willing to listen to them talk about it anymore, they come here looking for fellowship. I'll always indulge that and welcome the participation so long as they aren't a douche about it. We love our trucks, we spent greatly for them and I think folks should be forgiven for seeking a little outside validation of their decisions, when most people couldn't care less and are tired of hearing about it.